The NHC 4 pm update shifted their track slightly to the west with the center line hitting near Morgan City. We want this center line to keep shifting to the west. IF it doesn't, this storm will seriously inpact the Westbank way more than Katrina did and probably even worse than Rita IF it becomes as strong as NHC indicates. My words of wisdom remain the same...the storm is still 5 days away. Keep up on the weather, have your plan & supplies ready so that IF you need to evacuate & leave you'll be ready to go, or IF you decide to stay, you have taken all personal responsibility (2 story + house, generator, supplies etc) to keep you safe & comfortable.
My gut today says the shift will be to the west over the next several days. Remember NHC is very slow to change the track so this westward shift (if it does come) will be agonizingly slow. It appears to me decision day for most of you will be daybreak on Sunday. Lower parishes may need to start moving sooner, but Sunday still gives you nearly 2 days to get out. The sooner you decide to leave, the less traffic you'll endure. the longer you wait, the more traffic delays will occur. Next update will come at 10 PM. Keep staying calm and hope for that westward track shift to continue.
51 comments:
Thanks, Bob. After listening to the Governor's news conference I was all in a panic, but reading your blog calmed me down. We're ready either way, stay or evacuate, but I hope we don't have to leave.
Thank you, Bob. Don't be disturbed by those who talk down about you. You have many supporters. Keep up the good work!
Love your honesty-love your opinions-mean much to me. I am am 37 weeks pregnant and waiting on facts. Don't want to get stuck in traffic, but don't want to leave if don't have to!
Lisa B from Mandeville
Thanks again for your reporting-I love it-don't change for anyone!
Did I tell you that you were awesome?
I am wondering about the time frame on this one, not so much the 3-5 day track. Do you think the timing on it being in the Gulf (anywhere) by 1pm Monday is accurate? Also, as a resident of Terrebonne Parish, with no levee protection, should we be more concerned than those closer to N.O?
And although the new disturbance in the Gulf will pose no interference with Gustav, do you anticipate any development in the next few days?
Thanks for all of your work, we appreciate you Bob!
What are the different scenarios for the storm surge vs. levee heights for where the storm is projected to go???
Thank God for BOB BRECK!!!! After losing everything twice.... I'm ready, and not panic stricken, "if I listen to the politics"... I'm ready Bob...come what may... God Bless you, and Yours.... Joyce
Keep up the good work Bob! I'd rather have a weatherman that isn't afraid to go with his gut sometimes than a room full of guys with computers that cannot think for themselves. You ware always the calm voice of reason when we need one, and you aren't afraid to let it all hang out when something needs to be said. Keep up the wonderful work and thanks FOX 8 for letting you do your thing. We DO appreciate it out here!
You were right on for Fay so we are listening to you for Gustave. If he goes inland at Terrebonne Parish, how will Metairie be affected? We moved to Metairie after losing everything in Katrina and we would like to know what to expect. Thank you for telling it like it is!!
Bob,
If the storm hits Morgan City, as projected, could you give folks in Mandeville what to expect in terms of wind and rain? I know the chief emphasis is on New Orleans, but it would be nice if each parish would know what to expect in deciding whether to evacuate or stay.
We have a HUGE question for you Bob. We have a family reunion scheduled in Spring, TX (north of Houston) for Monday the 31st. Our question is, should we who live here between New Orleans and Baton Rouge go to the reunion? We're wondering if it hits Texas instead of us, how hard will it be to get back home? We figure if New Orleans evacuates, then we're ahead of the game....but if Houston has to evacuate, then what? Any ideas about what we should do? Most of us were planning to leave tomorrow (Friday, the 29th) to make a long weekend of it - should we consider not going?
Bob,
Learned so much about weather the last few days. Thanks for all your input. You are the voice we will listen to. And thanks for calming us down. Hope the track keeps going west. If it does come this way, and again let's hope not, what type of a storm surge are we looking at on the east side of the storm.
Bob,
I appreciate how you are using the energy content of the water, as opposed to WWL, whom I watch also, but are only using sea surface temperatures. A really good map is found at http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2008/loopcurrent_aug24.png
This map explains why certain parts of the Gulf have higher energy potentials.
However, since the beginning I have wondered why you are so insistent on using VIPIR. Two nights ago and last night, you essentially used VIPIR as justification for disregarding the more western computer consensus. I've followed VIPIR for years and have found it to be one of the least reliable of the tropical weather models. Why such an emphasis on VIPIR?
Oh, a quick question I've always wanted to know about storm surge. I know the majority of surge is caused by winds piling up the water. How much of surge is a result of the low pressure, which allows the water to rise since less atmospheric pressure is on it?
Thanks!
Thanks for your broadcasts.
I am originally from N.O. but now we live on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. The local news here (WLOX) is notably uninformative concerning details of what's going on with the storm. They never discuss scenarios, possibilities, etc. They basically just show us the uncertainty cone and that's the entire broadcast. Thanks so much for being the only person around, including on the other N.O. stations, who does his own analysis instead of just spouting what the NWS says (which we could find out ourselves online). You always answer the real world questions that people have, the 'what if's', and that is so important in a populace that has been traumatized by the destruction of these storms.
You were a godsend to us during Katrina and are now.
All of my friends call you 'The New Nash' - and you are!
"Keep up the good work Bob! I'd rather have a weatherman that isn't afraid to go with his gut sometimes than a room full of guys with computers that cannot think for themselves." huh? Bob said that VIPIR took Gustav to Florida and he agreed with VIPIR.
Remember Caveman gave his SPECIFIC landfall location of Tex/La line many many many days ago!
I hope that doesn't sound disrespectful. I actually still have in my drawer of collectibles a signed 1994 Wendy's WVUE Bob Breck Tracking Map that my mom got me for my birthday.
Thanks Bob. Do you have any indication of the storm surge expected with Gustav, especially for the Lake Borgne, MRGO and Bayou Dupree areas. This is a repeat of a question from gjw02 said...
What are the different scenarios for the storm surge vs. levee heights for where the storm is projected to go???
August 28, 2008 4:19 PM
Thanks Bob. Do you have any indication of the storm surge expected with Gustav, especially for the Lake Borgne, MRGO and Bayou Dupree areas. This is a repeat of a question from gjw02 said...
What are the different scenarios for the storm surge vs. levee heights for where the storm is projected to go???
August 28, 2008 4:19 PM
I live near Napoleon and Freret. I flooded after Katrina. Have they already closed the 17th St canal floodgates? If so, will I flood in a heavy rainfall? What about other friends in Uptown New Orleans, Will they flood?
Hey Bob! The reason I watch you is you are not afraid to speak your mind and give your gut feelings on weather patterns. Thanks for being there for us and keeping us informed and the words of wisdom to stay calm till we know more. I'll stay tuned!
Did I say, "I think you're awesome too"? I do.... =)
Do you ever think we will feel secure enough NOT to flee the city for every storm that comes near? We would never have evacuated for a category 3 storm which wasn't taking a dead aim before. I think public officials just don't want to get caught with their pants down. It's sort of like a doctor who's afraid of a malpractice suit who over prescribes tests and medicines.
We can't live like this long term.
Bob, you said you were concerned about the West Bank if Gustav comes ashore near Terrebonne Parish.
Since this would put us on the east side of the storm, what sort of storm surge and flooding might we on the West Bank (Jefferson Parish) expect if this scenario plays out?
Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corp will be the #1 insurer in the state after this hurricane season because all the big insurers will not write policies period for homeowners in south Louisiana and you can't blame them either. When you live BELOW sea level and rely on dirt mounds to protect you sooner or later it WILL happen again and again. VIPIR is not a tropical computer model. Many state offices including Mayor's office will be relocated to Baton Rouge in the years ahead.
Bob, you said you were concerned about the West Bank if Gustav comes ashore near Terrebonne Parish.
Since this would put us on the east side of the storm, what sort of storm surge and flooding might we on the West Bank (Jefferson Parish) expect if this scenario plays out?
Thanks, Bob, for all you do to keep us safe!
Bob, we like the way you disguise yourself as caveman to make us all think there is actually someone out there foolish enough to dog you on your own blog. We are prepared and watching, but have decided the Saturday evening post is the one we are waiting for. Keep up the good work!!
Ok, here it is. I am not sure when to decide to go. Any suggestions anyone? I thought that Friday evening will be the should I stay or go day. We are headed to Lexington, TX. to family. Everyone keep safe!
I originally had this going to the TEX / LA border...haven't seen anything to change my mind yet.
BAD news gang, Gustav has increased greatly in size, the windfield is getting HUGE! Once he gets into the Gulf this could very easy be a repeat of Katrina for someone! Nobody is mentioning cat 4/5 yet but I forsee a cat 4 plus but not at landfall. THIS WILL BE A BIG STORM!!!!!!!!
Bob,
My husband says that there is only a 5% chance that Gustav will hit our area and only a small percentage that we will be affected, he is leaving tomorrow to go to his hunting camp and leaving me and the kids here. My husband is not concerned at all and says the news is blowing everything out of proportion for ratings. I haven't really stocked up, I did get gas but that was only because I needed it. It seems as though you may be in agreement that is just isn't coming here and we need to all calm down. I guess Texas needs to start worrying. I hope you and my husband are right, but liuving in Metairie I really do not need to worry about levees right??? My husband says that the levees in Jefferson Parish or in the Metairie area will never break.
caveman: you asked me if my husband is larry - i said yes, so who are you? you can post to my personal blog.
I'm Caveman of course!
sweetie, hope your husband knows how to live off the land for a few days. And has a will.
Are you olemissweetie? NOPE!
LOL sweetie is NOT you it was olemissweetie few post above that post! Tell Larry howdy...
LOL you really shouldnt mix answers to two different people in one post.
I still want to know who you are.
Are you HLG?
Much of Metairie is NOT safe from a flood.
IF and this is a big IF, IF Gustav strengthened and hit the city, probably the most vulnerable levee on the East bank that on the city side of the Industrial Canal, is the Jefferson Parish/St Charles Parish canal levee.
OleMissSweetie, your husband is absolutely INCORRECT. Don't panic, but if that I-wall levee, which has gaps in it failed, almost all of Kenner would flood, as would all of Metairie on the north side of I-10. The entire area from North Kenner to Bucktown is part of a 5-10 foot sub-sea level marsh that was drained for build in the 50's and 60's.
If that poorly made levee gives, Kenner and Metairie would look like Lakeview and MidCity.
But if the storm doesnt come, there's no reason to worry.
caveman has the gsdl model changed at all
With the storm shifting all over the place and we are still in the cone of error...let hope the storm stay on track and goes west of us....
BSB
How does this levee wall affect the area of Metairie South of I-10? My house is right on the border of Kenner and Metairie but on the South side. What could be the affect here is that levee failed?
GSDL? You mean GFDL, just a tade but still pretty steady ....
Caveman still says TEX/LA line... but New Orleans will get drenched big time..
HI Bob:
Quickie for you: How did VIPER do with KATRINA?
Been watching you since your FIRST broadcasts! :)
Thanks!
Rene'
Thank you so much Bob for being a voice of reason during this time of panic. You use common sense and look at the whole picture and explain your reasoning behind the predictions.
Thank you for your dedication. We choose you every time we need a hurricane authority. You are the new Nash Roberts. We all know that he was the best.
THANKS BOB!! I truly trust you & everything you say. I watch every news cast & read the blogs that you post all day. Keep up the good work as usual!! And last but not least Thanks for always being here for us
bob ,please answer me this...whats he shortest time in between cat 3 or 4 landfalls in the same city....i belive in new orleans the answer would be 40 years...betsy - katrina
I booked rooms at a hotel in Lafayette,La to get away from the storm, my question is is it still safe to go there and stay there Friday and Saturday?
i have been to every site i can find, i find alot of the models are alike, but i am concered about something dr.lyons said this morning on wwl radio. he said one of the most accurate forecast models is the navy model, until it get close to landfall. he said it always takes the storms to the west and almost all the time the build in the high pressures and keep them stronger than the really are. this morning that tracj had gustav going into texas, so a little east would be say morgan city, bad but not as bad as a little fahter east towards new orleans. what concerns me though is since we have had a pretty regular motion now and not as much jogging going on, the navy model takes it almost to the same tack as the NHC. well, if the same holds true and the storms always go east of the navy model, well, you tell me, it puts it in almost puts it in the worst possible spot. a little over that 90 degree line. also, the GWF animated model has stayed real close to the latest viper model you just showed on tonights news. i no we are looking for everything we can to hope for, but man it dont look good to this none trained eye.
Bob, I agree with everyone that you are a great asset to the New Orleans viewing area so I won't repeat all the acolades and just get to the question I have for you. Earlier today you talked about steering currents and described something that is usually closer to us in the atlantic but this year it is way further out there. can you tell us about this one again. I have been trying to ask you about steering currents for days but I'm not a blogger and couldn'tfigure out how to use this.
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