The changes over night have been subtle but somewhat concerning. 1) Gustav has strengthened quicker and stronger than NHC projections. 2) The track has been slightly farther RIGHT than predicted. All computer models had been west of New Orleans last night. Now several are over us and one is way to our right east of the Florida beaches. That bothers me...the shifting back and forth. That's what our VIPIR model has been doing. One run takes Gustav west, the next brings him just to our east. This uncertainty is driving me nuts and I'm sure you too.
Let's begin by saying, Gustav is still south of Cuba with max winds at 145 with higher gusts. That makes him a Cat. 4. As he moves over the western part of that island, he's likely to weaken back to a Cat 3 before he regains strength over the warm loop current in the southern Gulf. This will be a deadly storm for someone. Until I seen a real shift to the east or west, I agree with local officials, evacuation will be required for most of SE LA and coastal MS.
next update around 4 PM when the new track comes out.
56 comments:
Bob, My husband thinks that Western St Tammany is excluded from hurricane force winds and is hesitating to leave. Can you please mention the Madisonville area please sort of to give him a wake up call. We were in St Bernard for Katirna.
Please mention the northshore including Hammond as well.
Thanks,
Phyllis Wake up call!!!This is not good for the northshore
I'm on the Westbank (Harvey) and I wasn't sure if I should leave tonight or tomorrow morning. Do you think the track will change significantly enough for me not to leave? Or should I just leave today and not wait for any changes?
Bob,
We have reservations in Shreveport and family in St. Francisville. What is a safer area for us to evacuate too? Thanks for your Hard work and dedication. Jennifer (Thibodaux)
Beans, I had a wake up call when my comapny made reservations on Tuesday. I am almosted packed. It's my husband that is sitting on the sofa reading a book. I am in tears having to do it all over again this soon. I am not panacked over the storm I am panicked over his calmness....
Bob has to mention the northshore and slidell on what we can expect. He needs to hear it from someone else besides me.
OMG, this is really bad news. I am afraid for my family now. I think I made a huge mistake by thinking and hoping Gustav would go more west of us.
I also made a mistake by investing all of my extra money in supplies, food, and gasoline for the generator. I am now stuck in Covington. I am scared!!!
I'm still here with you Bob.
Now everyone needs to take personal responsibility for their plans with this storm, and not burden poor Bob with the task of personally seeing that every individual is out and safe.
He's doing what he can, but thats too much.
Thanks again, Bob.
what about storm surge in slidell?
what about storm surge to the slidell area? is it going to be as bad as katrina?
People who are asking if you should leave, listen to your local officials. If they tell you to go, don't let the door hit you on your way out. This is a decision everyone has to make individually, whether or not you agree with the evac notice. Bob will give you the info on the storm, put it to good use.
Bob,
I'm not by any means contradicting or questioming your statements, as I realize that you have access to more information than I do. I can't find any site that has the eastern shifted models; could you elaborate later if necessary and if warranted? Thanks again for your wonderful efforts so far.
Lots of folks keep asking IF it will be as bad as Katrina. It's NOT even in the Gulf of Mexico! BUT, this is a deadly storm, and the problem with these storms is that you CAN NOT ASSESS THE DAMAGE UNTIL AFTER THEY ARE GONE!!!
SO, if you are told that you should leave, or live in a low lying area affected by Katrina, this COULD affect you...GET OUT ASAP!!
I hope that all are safe and well, and especially wish Bob and his crew all the best....it ain't easy working through a storm with family and loved ones having to evacuate!
We're with you Bob, until the lack of power/generators/internet says otherwise...lol!
IF IN DOUBT, GET OUT~!!!!
Stormzz
How bad is this for Baton Rouge? I have left New Orleans and got a hotel in BR but now fear i have not gone far enough.
I am with catfish. Let Bob do his thin. If your loca officals say to leave, then you should lave.
Oh and going West is definately not the way to go. Further (way further) inland may be good to the West but I would go North.
I am interested in hearing what your gut feeling is, Bob. I do realize you can't be held liable for a gut feeling, but in the past your hunches have usually proven pretty accurate. Can you please inform us as to what your hunch is as to the path of this storm?
Thank you.
what should the people in metairie do? i see that a lot of people in my neighborhoods are staying, what should we do?
Phillis I knew it was him . Is there anyone that can talk to him that will advise him to leave??
Concerned in Nashville. Relocated to Nashville after Katrina, but my entire family still lives throughout Orleans, Jefferson and St. Charles. Some family members made hotel reservations inland, north, but this morning I was informed that they were all cancelled. The entire family has opted to go and vacation between Gulf Shores and Destin. With a possible Cat 4 or 5 storm threatening the Gulf of Mexico, would you not consider this move to be rather foolish? Hurricane history has proved that we really have no way to know what these things will decide to do. Let's note that it hasn't even entered
the Gulf yet. At this point it looks as though central to southeast Louisiana will take the brunt of the storm, a relatively small shift to the east could put the Alabama and Florida coastal areas at risk. Wouldn't INLAND, NORTH been a more logical decision, now if it decides to make an easterly turn, they have given up some of the few remaining pet friendly hotel rooms left to the north. What do you think, crazy, naive or just thinking
positively?
Latest Hurricane Hunter's observation in Gustav
939.4 mb
(~ 27.74 inHg)
Not much change in speed....
Still moving as expected in a general NW direction.
Bob, is there ANY good news in this picture? We need something positive said...
Here's my two cents: VIPIR is showing that Gustav is being chased by his woman Hanna and he's going to get lost in the bayous of Louisian, cher....lol!
Man, this is some place we live, eh? Awesome in good times...nothing like it, and anxiety provoking when these dogs roll through here!
I am interested in hearing comments about heading east rather than west. We are planning to head east to Pensacola. According to all the models that should be safe. How much faith is there in the models?
I think he has come to his senses. We are planning on leaving tomorrow morning. It'll be a nice vacation, since it will take many days for the area to come back...
Hopefully not as long as it took after Katrina...
Thanks Beans for your support...
Bob, you're scaring me now. You said on television that the west bank will get the worst of the storm surge unlike during Katrina. Please give us ANY good news you could give on Gustavo.
following the 3 o'clock(ish) press conference from Jefferson Parish and the latest update, i am feeling more confused than ever! JP is issuing a Voluntary Evac for the West Bank (in addition to the Mandatory Evac for the lower lying areas), but those of us on the East Bank are being told to exercise Judgement on whether or not to Evac.....with the current jog to the east that Bob is talking about, I still wish I knew what to do for those of us in Metairie/Kenner! As long as our pumps stay on, should we be safe?
Dear Bob,
We are in Pearl river, LA and my bf refuses to leave with me and the kids. but he is curious to know if he should be worried about the pearl river flooding also or if he only needs to worry about the trees falling. and what you would think about him staying at home here we live in a mobile home.
ok we live in pearl river la and my bf wants to stay home, but he is curious to find out if he should be worried about the pearl river over flowing and flooding us or if he should only be concerned with the trees.
ANNOTARO im with you on that question!!!
im in metairie right off of cleary!
we have no clue what to do right now.
Bob,
Watching you here in the Tampa Bay area. Have been getting periods of rain and wind from Gustav even up here. Best of luck to you in the people of New Orleans.
Bob, I noticed on the 4PM advisory, the eye is currently more north than any of the computer models show on wunderground.com. Could this possibly be the start of a turn to the northeast?
Bob, my husband and are long time New Orleans residents who now live in Gulfport, MS. We are hearing NOTHING on TV about any advisories for the Mississippi Gulf Coast. New Orleans is doing a great job, but Mississippi is giving us nothing at all! Can you please advise us on if we should be leaving as well. We are south of I-10 in Gulfport. Thank you!!
I noticed that as well Garrett. From the satellite loop it definitely looks like it took more of a northward jog and maybe even a bit to the Northeast.
Since nothing was said about it I'm assuming that it is going to come down to the normal wobble that a hurricane does naturally.
If the track turns to the East, I hope it turns a good bit instead of just slightly. Like everyone else, I wish this on no one, but I live in Picayune and I am starting to get a lot more worried as time goes on.
I'm hoping that where it is forecast to make landfall is going to be far enough away that Picayune will be spared, but like Bob pointed out, 50 miles makes a HUGE difference. Katrina pretty much came right over my house - not looking for a repeat :)
Bob, I will let you know there is a lot of people in lower line areas of HOUMA LA, in the chauvin area that watches your show. They say they aren't leaving. Because they have too much invested. Can you please alert them that this in no way shape or form is worth their lives.
Bob would it be wise to evacuate to Pride Louisiana wich is north of baton rouge. Thanks
Bob would it be wise to evacuate to Pride Louisiana. Thanks
Bob,
My step-daughter and her mother are evacuating to Tampa Bay, Fla. Seems like a great plan for now. But, my concern is Hannah. Should we encourage them to prepare for a 2nd evacuation? Or, is this way too early to even start to worry?
By the way, thanks for being our community's Jiminy Crikcket (of sorts...) We trust you have our best interests at heart and care very much. And, in my opinion, you have never "scared" us. Your warnings are seemingly calculated; even if you say "on the fly." :-)
is laplace south of interstate and north of airline hwy going to be ok?
Bob, It seems that there has been a lot of coverage regarding the west bank. I live in Reserve & am wondering what kind of hurricane conditions can I expect in my area? I am trying to decide if I should stay or go. If you could mention on your forecast the expected conditions for my area, hopefully I can make a more informed decision.
Thanks for all your help!
Bob, I live in St James Parish and there hasn't been much information for our area. Can you tell us what effects the storm will have here and whether or not it would be safe to stay?
Thank you,
Angie
Bob,
How will this storm be different from Katrina for the people in Slidell?
You left us completely out on your 4:00 update.
Where is the love?
Bob,
Earlier (since 4 pm) you showed hurricane models that sent many of the tracks through the Kenner/LaPlace area and up through Baton Rouge, a few went to Lake Charles and one went to Florida. My question is whether these were the updated tracks since the main track continually shows Gustav coming in mid coast and running through Lafayette and Lake Charles. Can you please recover the tracks with the most up to date tracks available as we are using those to guide whether or not we hit the road.
Thank you!
PEOPLE! CAVEMAN has been calling this storm many many days ago! YOU NEED TO GO NORTH NOW!!!!!!!!!
This storm will make Katrina look like nothing compared to what this will do, YOU don't realize how easy New Orleans got off last time, this time we are on the WORST side of the storm, remember what Kat did you waveland etc east of New Orleans!!!! GET OUT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! geese Power WILL be out for many WEEKS etc.
Caveman AND local authorities are right....so many evacuations...
Folks, we are on the WORST side of the storm, and yet folks from Slidell ask what they should do?
GET OUT if you are not WAY north of I12 and STILL get out if you have trees around your house. They can be deadly when they fall through your house!
LISTEN to authorities, do NOT delay, and get out. Depending upon how this hits LA, this could be the worst disaster we've ever seen here.
It's not showing signs of turning, and even if it turns at the coast, the damage will be catastrophic. Just PLEASE get out now!
Bob,
I live in La Place and need to know what to expect. Didn't really get any information. Have generator and other supplies. Please give me someinformation. I apologize if you gave this information earlier. Thanks.
I THINK PEOPLE STILL JUST DON'T GET IT, IF YOU STAY POWER WILL BE OUT FOR A LONG LONG LONG LONG TIME, GENERATORS WON'T BE OF MUCH USE WHEN YOU CAN'T GET GAS FOR THEM. ALL THAT LOOTING ETC THAT TOOK PLACE IN NEW ORLEANS WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE IN OTHER AREAS LIKE SLIDELL SINCE ALOT OF THE BAD ELEMENTS ARE NOW IN SLIDELL SINCE KATRINA.
SOUTH LOUISIANA WILL BE A VERY DIFFERENT PLACE AFTER MONDAY. MANY MANY PEOPLE WILL NOT RETURN, INSURANCE COMPANIES WILL NOT WRITE, JOBS WILL NOT RETURN, ETC.
Hi Bob I am from Thibodaux and will be leaving soon. Everyone is very stressed including myself. To relieve some stress we try to have a little fun. We are bringing our cats with us and needed a way for them to get around. This is our solution
Enjoy,
http://picasaweb.google.com/chrisusey/General/photo#5240491131416498690
Bob, i would like to commend you for the awesome job you are doing in keeping folks informed concerning the storms. I, however don't envy your job one little bit! ;)
I have been watching you now for as long as you've been on televison, and I am so happy you are still here for us!
God Bless & Keep up the fantastic work!
~Miss Vicki
Given that there are no well-defined steering patterns, what about the natural tendency of systems to move in a more easterly direction as they reach the northern Gulf? Could this be a possible reason that some of the models are trending to the east? Is this a result of the Coriolis force/effect?
Bob, you are the most irresponsible weather forecaster in the history of meteorology. There are tens of thousands of people's lives in the balance and you are speculating that this hurricane will do something that is beyond the laws of physics and steer into a high pressure system to the left or right. IF you are reading this and you live in New Orleans, LEAVE NOW. DO NOT LISTEN TO BOB. You only have one life and do you REALLY want to put it in the hands of this nutjob? EVERY OTHER TV STATION IS TELLING YOU EVACUATE. EVACUATE! EVACUATE!
Thoughts will be with you Philis
I Agree with davids... GET OUT, NOW!!!!!! This is Going to be like NO OTHER storm before! If you are staying, You are Nutz!!! If you are ANYWHERE in Southern Louisiana you need to Leave! I am SO afraid of what's going to happen... The Hurricane center at LSU is saying all these things that the models are saying is going to happen... It's Horrible! The water and the wind... Caveman is right! No power for weeks, No Food, Water, Sewage... South Louisiana will be a totally different place come Monday! God Help Us ALL!
bob, i live on the metairie ridge in a 2 story house. i also have a generator and a boat. can i stay and be safe
DavidS,
I am watching this blog and I am watching Bob and he is not saying what you claim!
I don't want anyone to think he is. Your advise is good but your criticism is just absolutely wrong. God bless everyone in SE LA.
BlogWatcher
Hello. Bob, i respect what you are doing. Good job. My question is does anyone know what kind of conditions to expect in bogalusa,la. I know we are farther up but that track looks bad so far!
Oh, Bob.
Please give us some good news.
I fear my heart will break again.
Thanks again for your hard work, Bob, I'll be watching you til the end.
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