Sorry I'm late with this update...real job takes priority! As you have seen on Satellite & radar pictures this morning, Gustav is not the "Mother of all storms". Southerly shear and drier air have collapsed the east side of this storm. The question is...does he have time to re-group before he gets to our coast? Sure, but that window to intensify is limited since he is leaving the warmest "ocean heat content" (warm water to get depths 100-200 meters) water and going over "cooler" waters towards us. Since his forward speed keeps increasing, a turn to the right or left will be very little UNLESS he begins to slow down. IF that happens, then a turn to the left (west) is more likely. On his current track, impacts will be great to our south, especially if the NHC forecast to go back up to a Cat. 4 is true. However, in discussion with a NHC forecaster this morning, he believed Gustav will have difficulty regaining his previous strength and perhaps might even weaken further. This would bring him to our coast as a Cat. 2 If that turns out, the impact for metro New Orleans will be much less than earlier predicted. Rather than take a chance, I hope all folks south of the Westbank expressway have fled...that's where our water problems will be.
I will be watching for any signs of rapid intensification during the next 6-12 hours. Even if none occurs, we're still in for 6-12+" of rain. Next update after 5 PM
28 comments:
Thank goodness for Bob's blogspot. We've evacuated to Texarkana from Gretna and are stuck watching the Weather Channel which has pretty poor coverage. We'd love to watch Fox 8 online but there doesn't seem to be a way to do it. Are we missing something? The "watch now" button at fox8live and fox8tv only show a commercial for Bob and nothing else. Does anyone know how to watch local Fox news online?
God willing, Gustav will continue to weaken and move away.
Bob, even at a cat 2 storm, how do you think the building in the city and in Metairie will fair? Do you think there will still be blown out windows and damage to the Superdome?
Grace,
Wait for the commercial to run, the broadcast will continue after that....
I also have had problems with the Fox 8 online. It worked great all day yesterday, but this morning am not able to receive the live feed. If you find out anything different please post.
grace, the broadcast for some reason is not working right now..I watched it yesterday for HOURS...but today..I don't know what happened..Maybe their website or server is not working so good. I agree, the weather channel has very POOR coverage...Even Channel 4 and 6 are not even close to being as good as Bob...so that sucks! Maybe channel 8 can fix something? so we we can see them..My family is still on their way here to TX...they left Lafourche parish last night around midnight..almost 12 hours on the road now.
Dear Bob Brek,
Thank you for all the updated news on hurricane Gustav. Me and my grandmother watch you on TV and you are very helpful to all!
--Thank You!
Bob, my parents and grandmother (who is 95 years old) live in Covington and I am in Houston. They own Blue Willow B & B and decided to "hold down the fort" and not evacuate. My mother pointed me to your web page. Thanks or this blog! It is calming me down a bit about their decision not to evacuate. Please continue with the clear & reassuring updates!
Christa Cahill
Kingwood, TX
I am sticking out the storm in Picayune, I'm hoping that I am making the right decision. My wife is freaking out after seeing the wonderful mayor of N.O say this is the "Mother of all Storms". I told her he's not a meteorologist listen to what Bob has to say. It seems like what will hit us has weekend tremendoulously I just fear the tornadoes that are on the east side of hurricanes.
Bob,
This morn you gave us renewed hope but later seemed to take it all back. We're in Houma and battened down (I know, I know) We shoudda left, but the idea of creeping along the highway was just too much. Give us a clearer picture of Houma (not the lower Terrebonne) but the city. We're counting on you.
Best Heyray
Bob,
Please explain to Kim Vaughn the difference between storm surge and wave height in the open Gulf.
She just said on air that because there are 24 foot wave heights 250 miles offshore that this has the surge potential of a Category 5 storm.
This is not good meteorology.
I agree, grace! I've been watching Bob on Fox 8 here in Atlanta for the last couple of days, but I can't get live streaming today. Guess there's too much traffic.
I really appreciate Bob's level-headed advice and logical thinking. He's my voice of reason.
Thanks, Bob!
Praying Gustav goes away...
i live in bourg, LA. my house is 10ft above sea level. my family and i have evacuated to Columbus, TX. i wnt to know how our home will do during this hurrican.
i am aware of a recent weakness in the intensity of the storm and my family and i are praying that it is enough to spare our house.
please reply in your next blog, if possible, as we do not recieve fox 8 where we are staying.
any news will help, thanks.
Bob,
I loved the fact that we were able to watch channel 8 on line, but it has crashed and we cannot watch. Why, why, why don't ya'll have better equipment where we can depend on you. You tell like it is and locals need to hear the truth.
Fox8 feed is back online and working. I'm watching this go down from France and Bob Breck has the best coverage anywhere bar-none. Best of luck to all who stayed behind.
I noticed that Station PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's Station East, SW Pass, LA is showing the lowest barometric pressure at 29.71" with a pressure tendancy of -0.07" and is falling the fastest of all the stations. Won't the storm follow the path of least resistence and head towards this BUOY? The other near land buoys show pressures of 29.74" to 29.79". I also noticed that Golden Meadow, LA (29.31N -90.25W) and and Empire, LA (29.38N -89.62W) both show the lowest barometric pressure for an inland location at 29.77".
Mike M
Metairie, LA
Dear Bob,
I am a Grand Islander, now evacuted to Shreveport. I am a devoted Channel 4 watcher, except for weather forecasts. You are the best! Just as good as Nash Roberts. Now that's saying something!!! You don't realize how much your words of wisdom give us hope. It seems as though you "will away" the storms; at least you do your best. Thanks for being there in our time of greatest need.
You people have a real short memory, Bob and his trusted ole VIPIR was telling everyone few days ago not to worry much that everything points to a landfall in Florida!!!!!!! NHC has had this storm nailed from day one.
Oh yeah and that in the center of the cone was the best place to be!!!!!!!!!
I am in New Orleans metro and I saw Bob Breck on television Channel 8 a few hours ago. For those of you who can't get him, I truly empathize. He is the only one I trust. Major Nagin had to say that about "the mother of all storms." That script was pretty much written 3 years ago. Bob said that there is a hot air pocket that is making the side of the storm that is usally strong (and by us) weak. He thinks it will hit as a 2 or high 3. He said C.Ray was wrong, and that this storm is not Katrina and definitely not the mother of all storms. He also said that people in metro New Orleans (eastbank) should not expect problems from wind or the lake. He did express concern for the Westbank. If the storm slows down NW of here, we could all get a lot of rain all week. People have been calling me telling me that I'm going to die, and I almost got in traffic when it was gridlocked, but I trust Bob Breck. It's crazy though; people who are watching the news all over the country think this is the end. My parents are so calm and supportive now that they can read Bob's blog.
Bob,
Just heard of a report in Livingston Parish,
Can you confirm this report?
A tornado in Livingston Parish,
Hi Caveman,
I'm still here and let me refresh your memory. You were just as wrong. Your timing was way off and you said Texas Louisiana state line. Closer, prehaps, but still wrong. And anyone who knows storms would tell you that you made a guess. Plain and simple.
And oh yeah, it was also wrong.
BlogWatcher
You people who are bashing Bob are ridiculous. He's given you his opinions all along but he's been sure to not only explain his train of thought but also to tell you that it could still be wrong and that storms are still unpredictable in the face of it all. Hey, he predicted the storm's southward shift when it was still near Haiti and Cuba. He's been very clear about the concept of uncertainty if you ask me. And he never said that no one should worry. He just wanted to make sure that people worried when it was time to worry and not prematurely. Give him a break. This blog has shed a lot of light on things for me and my family. Bob, thanks for giving us your opinions and for explaining why you think what you do. Keep up the good work. And don't let the naysayers get to you.
Caveman, I guess the stress of the storm has really gotten to you so I will forgive you and your attacks on the one person the people here trust and admire. If you don't have anythoing nice to say, then please let the rest of us ride out this storm with the TRUSTED advise from Bob Breck. Please stop trying to cause stress to the rest of us.
Thanks for your understanding Caveman.
OK you will see....
Trusting VIPIR on anything below 30 degrees north is not a wise decision, in my opinion.
Caveman, if you are not in the immediate area, then paleeeze leave us alone. I don't see you with 30 year od experience. Are you even 30 years old?? I definately don't see you taking his job. Unless you have the credentials he has, please go forecast somewhere else, maybe start the 'Caveman Blog." Please go away, but I guess there is one in every crowd. But if you are going to cause stress to the rest of us (obviously feeding on pannicking innocent) then please keep your comments to yourself.
Good bye.
Caveman, if you are not in the immediate area, then paleeeze leave us alone. I don't see you with 30 year od experience. Are you even 30 years old?? I definately don't see you taking his job. Unless you have the credentials he has, please go forecast somewhere else, maybe start the 'Caveman Blog." Please go away, but I guess there is one in every crowd. But if you are going to cause stress to the rest of us (obviously feeding on pannicking innocent) then please keep your comments to yourself.
Good bye.
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