Since most of you already surf the web & have seen the model predictions, I begin by saying that the models from last night were clearly wrong in the initial movement of Gustav since he remained nearly stationary over Haiti resulting in weakening to a Trop. Storm. So why do so many of you "model purists" still want to believe these models at 3,4 or 5 days? I am not going to hype this storm. As I said last night, Friday MAY BE our decision day IF we even have to make any decisions. Since many of you read Dr. Masters blog on Weather Underground, I thought he presented a reasonable explanation of all the UNCERTAINTY in the models. Plus NHC even stated, "THERE IS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...SKILL ININTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES. "...referring to days 3, 4, & 5. I like reasonable people. I dislike those who want to predict landfall beyond 2-3 days. That serves no purpose except to heighten our already frayed nerves.
So let's get back to the future. This morning's VIPIR run (not available on the web...you gotta pay for it) continues to predict a northward turn across Florida on Friday and up the east coast of Florida away from us. This morning's GFS now agrees with VIPIR. What we have to see is that turn to the north. I'd love to see Gustav keep moving more NW since that would take him over Cuba & not allow him to strengthen as most models do that keep him over water. NHC has shifted their track more to the east with us near the "bullseye". As I have often mentioned..."I want to be the bullseye at 5 days since that means it will goes either side of that". I still feel that way. In fact I think NHC will keep slowly shifting the track to the east. Bottom line...until Gustav gets to the Gulf...guessing just makes people nervous for little reason. I will continue to try to be the voice of reason.
Regarding this site, let's try to keep your comments brief & to the point. I appreciate all your input and I hope we continue to be civil to each other. Thanks
58 comments:
Right on Bob! As always, experience speaks volumes....
We'll stay tuned!
Thanks for the info Bob. What are the chances that the track will continue to shift eastward?
Thank goodness we have on guy on TV news that isn't a total fear monger. Even the Weather Channel is getting into the business of scaring people.
We're sticking with Bob. The rest of the state media is in a panic at this point.
It does seem like the track, which is now pointed straight at the mouth of the Mississippi, will gradually drift east as time goes on. If the VIPIR model is correct, we should be in good shape and have another breezy weekend like we did with Fay.
Just for the record, I plugged the numbers into World of Warcraft and they're verifying the VIPIR track. A little jog north and then east up Florida's coast. Additionally, the WOW predicts most of the crabs and shrimp in the direct path of Gustov to develop into goblins and trolls. But we're 5 days out so anything can happen!
"So why do so many of you "model purists" still want to believe these models at 3,4 or 5 days?" so why should we trust good ole VIPIR telling us Florida then? Doesn't pretty much discredit VIPIR as well?
Didn't the viper predict something like this for Katrina too? Viper just doesn't give me confidence. Bob's opinion does but not when he uses Viper as a tool.
I kind of figured that out about VIPIR being pay only. Dang.
You make a load of sense, Bob. People are all very nervous - understandably so - when they see us in the bullseye. But keeping a clear head, mixed in with a good deal of caution, is the way to go.
Keep up the good work.
Cheers,
G
does anyone have advice on how to fasten plywood to vynil siding?? help!!!!
One day people will realize that fearmongering, like sex, sells!!! how can you trust people that are just there for the ratings?? i dont. i'll listen to someone who has a vested interest in our city. i only view the weather channel for radar use. other than that, they are just a bunch of has beens trying to make names for themselves!!!
and that friends, is the truth!!
Bob,
Is there any chance that the ridge of high pressure over the east could pull back further to the east, creating a weak zone for Louisiana?
Attaching plywood to vinyl siding.... you have to drive a 2x4 stake into the ground about 6ft away from the windo then place the plywood on the OUTSIDE of the window frame letting it rest on the ext window sill if you have one then run a 2x4 from the stake to the window, (attach a smaller block of wood to the plywood in the middle) then attaching the 2x4 runner to the plywood.
Thanks Bob, people here at work are starting to freak out.
thanks caveman. i thought of that (and actually did it years ago) i just fear debris blowing by could knock the support bord loose. oh well, we'll see!
thanks again!
Since Bob won't explain how "his" model works.... Here is a definition:
"VIPIR is an acronym for Volumetric Imaging and Processing for Integrated radar.
It is not a forecasting tool but Baron's (the developer) does have "the rights" to the BAMS forecast model which can be incorporated into the VIPIR system (we have it). And while it is a decent meso model it is not always right on like any model. It uses the same full compliment of data that all other models use, radar, cloud, upper air winds, RAOB and sfc data.
The best way I can describe the model is that it is a hybrid of the RUC, WRF and MM5 model. Baron's and their modelling team in NC are making great strides at improving this model but like any model it has its major hits and busts"
Any model is going to be more accurate the closer a storm gets. In fact, most of the models tend to come closer together as time progresses towards landfall, and it makes sense that VIPIR would also show the same trends. If VIPIR were the best model, the NHC would not need to use any of the others for prediction.
You can read more about VIPIR on the Baron's website where great explanation on its purpose is provided.
Awesome post Tracy!
Models are just that...that's why there is a bit of artistry to forecasting.
BOB, realizes that the current forecast track is an accurate guess based on LOTS of info, and NOT strictly models....they are one tool...and he SHOULD use all tools available, and does!
Oh, if the High weakens, and it is showing some signs, then it won't create a weak zone over LA, but instead will allow more easterly movement towards Florida. BUT, the steering currents are weak right now, and until this is in the Gulf, it's going to be VERY tough to tell.
Bob is right, be prepared and stay tuned!
Stormzz
hey stormz, i tried to go to that redcross checklist site and it says forbidden. any ideas?
Thanks Stormzz - I have my moments. My husband is a meteorologist and he is concerned, not freaked out, but concerned. We are prepared, we have reservations and supplies. So if it comes (and exceeds cat 2) we are ready, if it doesn't we can enjoy a margarita and say "whew, dodged another one".
Unfortunately, the pinpoint of the latest forecast is reminiscent of Katrina and I think everyone's nerves are a bit frazzled. And when you live in the pinpoint and having lost everything there, it is difficult not to get caught up.
I live on nice high ground now and personally want to ride this one out. I went through Camille in 180mph winds when I was only 6.
As you point out, good forecasters rely on all inputs, not just models. They actually look at the upper air patterns and satellite (visible, IR and water vapor) and look at surface obs and rely on their backgrounds to enhance their forecasting ability above the models.
The latest track does puzzle me though because the majority of models moved it towards Houma.
clearly you are a professional meteorologist. What is your opinion? None of my weather friends can agree. Which is I guess as it should be since it is so far away.
:-)
95L will push Gus to the west...
Man...this waiting is just so tough. Oh and I read the wunderground blog little scary..... now I wish I hadn't read it! I'm sticking with Bob. It's tough to stay calm after 2005. We are all a bit gun shy to say the least. I'm trying hard to stay with my senses, but I know, I won't get a thing done until this is OVER!
Bob,
Very comforting based on the scare tactics of your competitors.
For real information we rely on your vast experience in calmly dealing with these events.
Father O
Bob has already said computer models are not good at all when the storm is 3-5 plus out yet he is relying on VIPIR telling us Florida?
Bacon ~ I can understand your feelings, I'm on edge as well, but it's Bob's calmness that gets me through.
I totally agree with Bob on this. We are way too far out to start a panic. The government is doing it's job by telling everyone to keep their eyes on the weather and make sure they have a plan just in case. But that is something you should have had done at the begining of hurrican season. Friday or maybe even Saturday is going to be our day to decide what to do. Everyone keep watching and good luck to all.
Tracy,
I am with your weather friends. Invest 95L figures in weakly as caveman pointed out, the high over Florida has not shown yet that it will stay where it currently is, or move more east....
Looking at ALL of the data, I am pretty sure that by tomorrow night, we'll have a real strong handle on what the guidance factors are merging towards.
I have a gut feeling....but feelings don't matter when the storm suddenly enlarges, strengthens and starts determining it's own destiny. I do not want to lead anyone....Bob does JUST fine on his own, and is seeing the same info as I am.
I am a bit concerned as the day goes on, simply because I'd like to see this storm clip across Cuba...but it's a bit slow to show it's hand just yet.
Simply, as Bob and others have been saying, we MUST wait. Be cautious and wait. I'm certain that your husband is saying the same.
Some storms have clear guidance, a strong blocking high, great upper level environment, weak shear...but this one has nothing strong determining his path TODAY!
I can give you my best guess, but what counts is what we see when he gets into the gulf....
Stay calm and just watch.
I am thinking a bit more to the east...but that could change.
Best wishes!
Stormzz
I ended up in Long Beach, Missippi Katrina weekend because the Friday before it hit, Bob calmly assured everyone it was going into Florida. Pass Christian and Long Beach were wiped out. I can't trust Bob Breck or his experience at all.
I ended up in Long Beach, Mississipi before Katrina because calm Bob Breck said Friday before it hit that the storm was going to Florida. He said then that everyone was being ridiculus worrying about Katrina. Long Beach and Pass Christian were basically wiped off the map. I can't trust his calmness or his smugness. To this day, I take what he says, and figure the exact opposite. What a joke.
Jill...
That is exactly why Bob isn't TELLING you where it is going! The NHC is giving it's most educated guess...but watch, it will change.
That's why it's called forecasting and not Fortune Telling! lol
I wish we knew as well...
Stormzz
Stormzz: You need a blog LOL :here is a commentary that I wonder if you know anything about. I once worked in a govt agency analyzing SST's along with some of my weather friends. This is something one of my weather friends said and noticed about Gustav. It's interesting to say the least and remembereing that oceanography certainly plays a big role.
"Look at the water vapor loop and you will see a dipole eddy affecting Gustav. It is hard to make out - but I see these things all the time after working with David for a couple of years. David wanted Elenbaas and me to find dipole eddies in the Indian Ocean so he could finish one of his remote sensing paper.
Anyway, I see one in the atmosphere water vapor loop - dipole eddies look like arrows - the shaft of the arrow is the dipole jet - with two vortices as the arrow head. One vortici loops clockwise and the other counter-clockwise. Gustav is interacting with the counterclockwise side of the dipole - and is being sheared. Gustav might also want to move southwest, but the counterclockwise vort max is keeping it in place.
Not much else to say - and I'm not sure how dipoles affect tropical storms. Guess there is a PhD somewhere for someone if they write about it."
My background is geology, oceanography and computer science. Career wise I am 90% I.T. If anyone wants to know about computer behavior, i'm your gal. (i know about the others, just didn't follow the career path)
:-)
Compare the NHC track from Tuesday to today. The 8AM Sunday position shows a pretty good shift to the East.
It is not just Bob with the forcasts. His information comes from the NHC. He just passes the information on to us. Nobody can tell you where this thing will go. It NEVER goes where they say. Take FAY for an example. That storm defied each and every one of them with her track.
Jill,
To be fair, EVERYBODY had Katrina going to Florida until late that Friday evening.
I remember it well: The 2:00 PM track from the NHC had it going to Florida (roughly through Talahassee). Then the 4:00 PM was the same as was 8:00 PM. Then the 10:00 PM track came out and BAM: Straight toward New Orleans!
I had never seen the NHA shift a track that much between consecutive forcasts. I thought, "Man, if it shifted that much between consecutive forcasts, the next one will be Houston, and then the one after that will be Brownsville".
But, no. It remained pointed straight for New Orleans.
Bob simply reported the track and the models as did everyone. It was the models that dramatically and rapidly shifted west.
Jill
If you don't trust Bob's word, why are you here?
Bob is making the best predictions he can with the information he's given ~ he's not God.
Tracy, too funny!
I use the Water Vapor loops, and this storm, have been comparing the last 48 hour loops! I agree with you, but I do not think that the eddy is going to affect the course. If you look at the CIMSS Wind Shear maps...there isn't a lot of shear hurting Gustav right now.
You have a great background....it's so complex eh?
Tomorrow, I'm gonna feel alot better one way or the other. NONE of us like not knowing...
Stormzz
Jill, You're right about Bob. When Katrina, the category 5 hurricane, was in the gulf, I went to Venice, LA. to vacation - specifically because Bob predicted it would hit Florida. WHAT A DISAPPOINTMENT!!! We all know what happened after that! The power went out and there I was with a case of warm High Life and little else! I spent the next week in a tree with a raccoon and two nutria. To make matters worse, because Bob didn't say to bring an umbrella I got extremely wet!!!
According to VIPIR you can greatly reduce the fat in a box of instant creamy garlic rice by simply subsituting olive oil in place of butter.
Gustav will stall in the gulf and 95L will push him to the west!!!!!!11
my brain in hurting
lol
Well going down to Venice was a really dumb idea. No matter what the models said. With a storm in the GULF, you should have just watched and waited since the tracks are always shifting around. As I have said already here, they have NEVER been right on the tracks.
Ya'll are a riot, I'm moving to Canada where I can start looking at snowstorms, LOL!
Tracey... you mentioned your husband is a weather dude, would his name be LARRY! by any chance?
Man this makes me feel a bit better. However, i do wonder (and hope you will address) when the prudent New Orleans resident should consider the storm track worthy of motivating to action. I know many are stuck between "holy cow, another one" and "holy cow, am i just so scarred by Katrina that every storm seems like the potential for another one." I have plans to leave at 7:40 am on Friday for a wedding and I am totally stuck as the thought of not having the ability to thoughtfully evacuate concerns me.
There are so many things to factor in to a weather forecast, not the least of which is experience. If you have no faith in Bob or his experience why waste your time and ours by posting here? IF he said on Friday that Katrina was going to Florida, then by the time he answered my email on Saturday morning he had changed his forecast. He told me that it wouldn't be possible to get back (we were out of town) and that it might be weeks before we could get home. If memory serves, he was 100%correct.
Joe and his crew at accuweather.com up in PennState shifted their track back to the west making landfall just a tad to the west of New Orleans.
angie has a poor memory...
I was simply trying to say that it isn't too smart to put all of your faith in one forecaster. Well, especially not this one :-) Obviously other posters had an experience like mine with Katrina. Some of these posts make it sound like whatever Bob says goes. I personally think we need Nash and his magic marker to be absolutely sure :-) I am praying all of this becomes a non-issue. In the meantime, I have a room in LA further north than New Orleans. Better to be safe than sorry. If you wait till Friday, you won't be able to find a room if you want one......
Jill,
I remember the Friday before Katrina vividly, and Bob kept saying that while the NHC had it going to Florida, he just didn't see how it would make a northern turn. He always has given two forecasts - the official one and his own. Personally, I trust Bob and Viper(which did bring Katrina towards us.)
Lets say it DID go to the west of New Orleans.. then wouldn't it eventually as with all of them turn to the east at some point?
isn't there a cold front to interact with this thing? I want to know how far north this thing would affect in case I decide to head that way.. would Little Rock or Memphis be far enough, If that's where I were to end up? I had enough with Katrina.. I want to have Lights and A/C see what's going on with everything on TV and whatever happens here happens I'd have to deal with it either way! I'm sure a lot of you agree.
caveman my memory is just fine, I know what was in the email I received and I know when I was able to get back to my house. And it was almost three weeks before we were allowed to come home.
Victoria,
I remember Bob himself saying Katrina would go up the east coast because thats what Vipir was showing him. I don't remember exactly, but I do remember him being at least 2 days different for many of the others. He was late in changing away from the east coast BECAUSE of Vipir.
What I don't understand is that I thought Vipir was not a tropical model.........so, why would you put your proffesional opinion about storms and hurricans behind a model thats not specialized in the same ?
I'm so confused.
why doesn't bob just tell us exactly what his education and experience tells him like Nash used to do ?
But Nash did really miss Camille, didn't he
Hey Bacon Bringer!
The trough of low pressure moving across the US is one of the important factors in this forecast problem. If it is strong enough, AND if Gus moves into the GOM in time to interact with it, it MAY draw Gus more to the east. BUT, there is a lot of uncertainty as to the timing here, and IF the ridge of high pressure over Florida will keep him to the west or not.
Again, it's a crap chute right now...lol! West, east, west east....we simply need to wait and see what the conditions are when he moves into the Gulf.
Invest 95L has a few changes in the forecast, which COULD interact with Gus if he doesn't hurry his self up...
The stress of not knowing is leading many to panic, but calm wits and PATIENCE is the best solution! We'll know more soon!
Oh, and I have been reading and have been sucked into the bickering here. I feel that if you have no faith in Bob, why sit here and argue with those who trust that he is a well educated (not perfect...sorry Bob) and talented forecaster? There are lots of other forecasters that you can watch!
Thanks to everyone for keeping me entertained today! Thanks to Bob for his brilliant blog and thick skin! LOL
Stormzz
VIPIR has only been correct on forecast when the systems are 36 hrs or less out, but then again pretty much ALL forecast models get good grades on systems just a day or more away.
Just ran VIPIR and it's showing that London, England is not currently in the 5 day cone of error.
Oh yeah, if you want to run VIPIR you must first put in a couple of quarters.
How does VIPIR and NOGAPS compare? I've gotten into the habit of watching NOGAPS at weatherunderground and find it more consistenly accurate tha GDFL, and I often find VIPIR to track closely with NOGAPS.
Stormzz
Mr Breck has had in the past a wonderful track record for forecasting. It seemed like he was always right.
But since this Vipir set up, it seems his golden touch is a bit tarnished at times, but still pretty much better than anyone else around.
I wish he would get rid of the Vipir and just go back to being a real forcaster and use his skills and education again. I feel Mr. Breck uses the new fangled junk too much. I never know if it's what HE thinks or what the computer thinks. Before the computer models, Mr Breck's brain WAS THE computer model. I miss those days.
Does that make sense ?
Loved what you wrote Bob. Common sense to these storms is always the best approach. You have a logical approach to it...and you do not put the fear of God in us.
It must by why you they pay you the big bucks.
BSB
Thanks for being the voice of reason Bob. You are channeling your calm into me, and I am trying to channel it into others...I think its working!
This Hurricane is a slut. Go Bob! We're all behind you!
hi weather8fan...
Great perspective....and I have a few thoughts...
I have lots of fancy fangled highly engineered stuff in front of me now...and I spoke to someone at the NHC today who has a TON more models and stuff than I...you have to realize something...I AM NOT on TV daily, having to put my a** on the line only to change my thoughts the next day before the PUBLIC! Neither is the NHC....they have OFTEN been wrong, look at Katrina!! They just don't always get busted!!
Bob has a tool he uses, and VIPIR is a great one (spelling caveman?lol)which integrates several other models. Other forecasters are using the same thing...it's just that they aren't responsible to a station, to mention that they have VIPIR and beef up the ratings a bit. They also LIKE BOB, use lots of tools, and rely heavily upon guidance from the NHC.
Bob isn't tarnished at all...but today, we have more weather tools available on the internet to compare his words to...where years ago, we watched Nash and his magic marker and simply trusted.
I wouldn't want to try to do this without technology...as earlier warning is what we aim for...and in Nash's day, he was awsome, because he first addressed the storms when they were sitting on the coast! lol
This storm is fickled...in my mind, the mark of a great forecaster is one who uses the wisdom to know WHEN to speak with certainty! Bob does that....
Makes sense?
Oh, I'm not here to defend Bob...I think that with one or two exceptions, most forecasters are well trained and have good tools....but at meetings, we ALL argue! :)
Forecasting...not fortune telling.
Be safe ya'll..
I've got some work to do...that dropsonde stuff, you know? Hmmm...maybe a bit of VIPIR? ha ha...
Stormzz
Dropsonde's let us know what it tells you as it slowly drops down....
You only misspelled VIPIR a few times.
Caveman: Yes Larry is my husband. Now it's only fair I know who you are: Send email to tracyp@coastcomputerdoctors.com
This is so weird....
LOL
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