Thursday, August 28, 2008
Noon Update
I am neither encouraged or discouraged by the information received since my late update. What has happened is Gustav did not follow the NHC track over night. In fact it drifted southward not westward. The new NHC track has shifted a bit to our west, but basically we remain the bullseye at 5 days. IF the models have had difficulty predicting Gustav 1 day out, why should we believe 5 days out? Again I feel this storm may be like Ivan in 2004 that threatened us but turned to the east at the last day and clobbered Gulfshores leaving us with no damage. This storm is likely to turn...but when and where? Right now with SW flow over the Gulf the turn would be to our east. That flow is expected to weaken by the time Gustav gets close so the turn sould easily be more to the west. Bottom line, NHC has delayed arrival 1st from Late Sunday to late Monday and now to early on Tuesday. Until he gets into the Gulf and we see what the steering is AT THAT TIME, the uncertainty is so great that forecasting landfall remains foolish. Besides, it appears another disturbance is forming over the extreme southern Gulf and Trop. Storm Hanna has formed to the east. What influences (if any) will these systems have on Gustav? I'll update again after 4 PM and we'll be on-air with a special 4:30 pm newscast on FOX 8.
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18 comments:
Hi Bob: Thanks so much for blogging this valuable information. Alot of us work from 9am-5pm and do not have access to a TV. If you could update us several times a day here that would be wonderful. Thanks for all of your hard work and valauble insight.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/prepare/supply_kit.shtml
Good supply recommendations and you don't need to rent a POD to keep it all together.
Caveman just keep blog fun, BUT listen to Bob.
On that note, just ran VIPIR again with the latest data and VIPIR has Gustav turning dead south saying "sych"..
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You know, it seems to me that anyone can take a marker and draw a line from the hurricane to New Orleans - that is exactly what the models do. At this time, I TRULY believe that Gustav is not going to hurt new Orleans in any way - not in the magnitude that Katrina did. AND, if I may so bold to say, certain sources (spiritual) have given me a vision that this hurricane is going to hit Mobile. But let's just wait and see. Back to you, Bob for more on the weather!
Well said Bob. Everybody is still getting all worked up over this thing. I have my plan in place but will make no decisions till Saturday or Sunday. Thanks for keeping us updated. You are wonderful.
Civengr:
Hi Bob, didn't Andrew come ashore as a 4 in approximately the same location as Gustav is predicted to do 5 days out? We stayed for Andrew and I remember having no problems in Metairie.
Might not be a problem for N.O. but here in Houma we have no barrier islands left for a storm like Andrew. We are the front line. And many of us are not really excited about that.
we all are in grand isle fishing for Labor Day we not to happy about it either
Thanks for the update Bob, for the supply links, and for helping everyone to understand the value of watching, staying calm, and being prepared! I'll check for links when I get some time in the morning.
What a ride this is, lol!
Hurricane Andrew was a Cat 3 at landfall for Louisiana, was a Cat 4 when he hit Florida, Wilma is the strongest hurricane ever recorded.
Let's hope Hanna goes to Montana!
(trying to keep our spirits up)
Gustav! Hanna! Now a disturbance in the southern Gulf. What is going on here? Bob, what do you think on the impacts of these storms together?
I guess I just don't get one thing - if the models are so distinctly unreliable then why put the results out there at all? It sounds like the modeling habits are really the irresponsible habits.
Or is it maybe that they represent the highest degree of likelihood but the cone represents the vast majority of potential contingencies? That must be it.
It just seems that handling the potential in a responsible manner means preparing and leaving. I do not understand why that is not the resounding message. Better to evacuate for naught then to remain for flood and chaos.
VIPIR latest run has Gustav going to Louisiana, Hanna going Texas, the other waves going to Mississippi, Alabama, and one more hitting Florida. Everyone is getting one.
I'm looking to come home and visit New Orleans for Labor Day. I really don't want to make the 650 mile trek if I'm going to have to be evacuated pretty much the next day. Anyone have any idea of when I should be able to make the descision to come down there or not? I was originally going to leave Friday night, but I might hold off until Saturday morning. Will we have a pretty good idea by then exactly what's going to happen?
Bob, just watched you @ 5PM and I totally agree, yes I do want you opinion on these storms and I value your opinion. and I think its one reason you have been here for the last 30 years.
You give common sense approach to these storms and your knowledge of weather seems to work hand in hand with each other.
I put on your newscast for these reasons alone...you may disagree with the HNC but I like how you call them like you see them.
Thanks for keeping your cool amd keeping us calm and seeing us thru these storms.
BSB
I sure hope they are wrong when they said that the levees may break on the westbank, because of the water pressure. and the westbank may flood because of the water comign in barataria bay or the westwego canal. I will pray hard and hope all will too. I cant afford to leave, plus my husband is out of town until Sunday. i am alone with my two dogs//
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