One computer model takes low pressure that has just moved off the African coast today...thru the Atlantic & Caribbean...into the Gulf making landfall over SW Louisiana on...AUGUST 26th !!!
Yep, that's nearly 2 weeks from now. Well on the Weather Channel tonight, Dr. Steve Lyons correctly pointed out that these long range forecasts are seldom (try never) right. In fact, models often flip-flop day to day at ranges beyond 3-5 days. Let's not get concerned until something approaches the Gulf.
There is a disorganized system approaching the northern islands east of Puerto Rico that could develop as it nears the Bahamas on Saturday. NHC gives it a 20-50% probability of that happening. It has to survive lots of upper shear for the next 2 days. As always, it's something we watch at this time of the year, but certainly nothing to be concerned about thru this weekend, if ever for us. IF it did come our way, we're talking Tuesday & Wednesday of next week. Relax & enjoy your weekend.
13 comments:
Of course long range models/forecasts are never right, but they are valuable learning tools to improve upon. 30 yrs ago meteorologist couldn't forecast very accurate just few days out but look at what can be done now with improved computers and info gathering. Just wait before long those long term week plus forecast will be very accurate.
Blog should get interesting when the path of our new storm shifts more to the west! Hurricane is coming!
Where are you Mr. Breck? What's your input on Tropical Storm Faye and its potential path? Really curious about what you have to say. Thanks!
Oh Bob....I know it's early but what do you think?? Will the path shift left? I'm supposed to go to Destin next week Thurs-Tues. I'm not sure which way to go!!!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_model.html#a_topad
Fay will go into the record books!
Bob is double checking his flood policy!
Fay may just be Katrina's twin sister!
BOB!!! WHERE ARE YOU?!?!?!
I can't stop thinking of how I felt safe knowing that when Katrina would come off of the peninsula of Florida, it would "turn north and go toward the panhandle." Well, we all know how that turned out! Now they're saying that when Faye gets off the coast of Cuba it will "turn north and go toward the panhandle" ........... flashback!!!! I hope they do not keep pushing this thing more to the west!! Please give us your input. I know this is no Katrina, but it certainly has the potential to intensify.
Bob,
What are the chances of Fay taken a more westerly track than anticipated at this time?
I wonder where Bob is??
But look at the historical tracking link... Only one storm has come towards Louisiana Cat 1 in 1890!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_climo.html#a_topad
Keep an eye on things, be prepared, but don't worry unduly until you have to.
Thanks Bob for always keeping us informed!
Bob just surfs the net and reports what has already been forecasted.
This storm will probably only effect Florida and the east coast. I doubt it will have any effects on Louisiana at all, so stop worring.
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