Those of you who have been channel switching the past 2 days know there has been a clear difference between FOX 8 & the other stations. I trusted our VIPIR model since it was more accurate early on with tracking Fay. This morning VIPIR is keeping the heaviest rains from Fay to our north & west wrapping the rains back over us late tonight & into Monday, BUT at much weaker intensities. Ch. 4 & 6 this morning are again pushing the NWS forecast of 4-6" of rain, or more before Monday evening. VIPIR doesn't show that so I am down playing our totals in the 1-3" range...2-4" at most. We'll see if VIPIR continues to be right. Today's benefit of all the clouds and showers will be less hot temperatures in the 80s.
Not to sound the alarm...but there is another strong tropical wave moving into the eastern Caribbean. NHC says there is some potential that this could become our next depression. I am not concerned since it is so far away. We need to get rid of Fay first before we focus on something 7 days down the road.
10 comments:
Bob I am in Destin and we were right in the middle of the storm. The winds were 30 mph and the rain was misty at best. By the time it reaches La I doubt it will be anything to be excited about. Again you are RIGHT on!!
Bob come on you called Caveman out by saying he was 0 for 3 on his prediction for Fay, yet Caveman was nearly 3 for 3! No kudos for Caveman?
The other stations are pretty sad though...
Caveman this is so sad,
I’m still watching and I shouldn’t have to do this, but you are asking for it.
Are you this desperate for attention? OK, I’ll give you some.
1. Fay did go WEST! Yes, but this was not much of a prediction since the NHC predicted it would as well. But I will add that Fay turned west much, much later than you predicted it would. Since you didn’t give a time or date as to when it would turn I will use the date that you said it would happen (August 15th), because to say something will happen without being more specific is a cop out. It didn’t turn until the 21st, SIX DAYS LATER. I could say that the world will end and I would be right…eventually. But it isn’t much of a prediction. You should be able to understand that. Also you stated “Hurricane is coming!” What does that mean? Coming where? To New Orleans? Or to you, because you obviously don’t live here by some of your previous comments. And this was also wrong if you meant New Orleans.
2 On your second point you said, “Fay will go into the record books! Bob is double checking his flood policy!” Checking for what? His nonexistent home in Florida? Again, you are just blowing smoke and making blanket predictions, trying to take credit for them after the fact. If you meant that it would set records on rain, say so. But at the time you said this it appeared to me that you meant strength which didn’t happen. Sure it gained strength over land, and while it was unusual I don't know if that is even a record. So I would say that you were wrong because you didn’t say what records would be broken.
It is just so obviously pathetic. Public figures can’t make blanket predictions and get away with it like YOU can do in the blogosphere. That is why I am watching and calling you out on this stuff.
3 Here is what you had to say on your third point:
Aug 15 - “Fay may just be Katrina's twin sister!” No not really.
Aug 23 - “Fay may be a sibling of Katrina, she is heading towards us! And she may be just under Hurricane strength.” This was made yesterday and was horribly wrong, but you stuck with it, amazing.
So to you ALL hurricanes would be a sibling of Katrina so you can’t get that wrong. And again, she is heading towards us? Where is us? Under hurricane strength, that is an understatement. But your original claim on the 15th was no where near right. But you can think it is if it makes you feel better.
I understand that you need validation, we all do. But this may not be the best place for you to find it. So please focus your energy elsewhere and don’t waste everyone else’s time here because I will be watching and calling you out on your comments when need be.
LOL
Where do you think I mean when I say a storm is coming our way... Germany?
EVERYTHING I said did pretty much occured, the prediction was made more than a week out, unlike others that like to make forecasts 1 day out which even my dog could do.
I know it is hard for you to take in which explains your lengthy attempt to say otherwise. Will say it ONE more time for you, Fay did go west, Fay did go into the record books for rainfall amounts and gaining strenght AFTER landfall and formed an eyewall AFTER landfall, and FAY did come extremely close to becoming an hurricane which did go just north of us! Thus Bobs, hourly updates as a result... Days back it was said FAY would come nowhere near us... wrong...
New Prediction from Caveman:
94L will become a depression in about 2 days and Tropical storm in another 2 days give or take 24hrs, then in 2 days from today it will be hurricane Gustav and will make landfall on the Texas/Louisiana line as a CAT 2/3, turn towards the NE and drench our area causing flash flooding and some power outages.
I also have a prediction: Caveman will not get any sex tonight...nor 2 nights from now....nor 2 nights after that....etc....
I enjoy reading the comments regarding caveman. Next time he/she comes out with a "prediction"...remember this. He/she NEVER gives any SPECIFICITY. He's like the Old Farmer's Almanac when they "predict"...January -Blizzard in New England. Of course they'll be correct 95% of the time, but what good is that prediction? Go back and read the blog...caveman's first "prediction" was..."...new storm shifts west...hurricane is coming." Clearly wrong Next was..."Fay will go into the record books." No specificity...as what? a hurricane, a flood maker? a wind storm? OK give him one. Finally, ..."Fay maybe be Katrina's twin sister." Again, clearly wrong even with the Florida flood damage. I'm glad to see others are paying attention. P.S. caveman...SPECIFICITY means more details, be specific, no generalities.
Oh Caveman,
You can laugh all you want but I believe that most people that read these posts are laughing as well. It’s just not with you.
I ask where you are because your “predictions” were off if you live here.
Like I said, broad predictions are nothing to be proud of.
Just saying:
- West
- Record
- Katrina
Does not make you correct on this storm.
Again (I can’t believe I have to keep repeating this stuff).
- Didn’t go west when you predicted it would on the 15th (See explanation on last post)
- Didn’t become a powerful storm
- Nothing like Katrina
You can’t go back after the fact and claim that you said that it WOULD turn a week later when you didn’t predict that. You just said “…when the path of our new storm shifts more to the west! Hurricane is coming!” You actually said “shifts west” not makes a turn to the west and it never became a hurricane.
You can’t go back and claim that you said it would be record rainfall and form an eye wall after you predicted a “record”. I personally don’t think this is what you meant, I think you predicted it would turn west over warmer Gulf waters, prediction #1, and would rapidly intensify like storms have previously, prediction #2. But again you were not specific on your “predictions”.
And with the Katrina comparison…this didn’t happen because your first two predictions didn’t work out.
You made predictions that when they didn’t pan out to your original ideas you tried to make reality fit your previous broad statements.
I am lengthy in my responses because I am thorough and I want people to realize that any hack can throw out comments on a blog (myself included). Readers here will read these posts and make up their minds. I seriously doubt many people will think you made accurate predictions. You are just barking up the wrong tree.
Blog Watcher
P.S. Glad to see your last post being more specific. Now we watch.
P.P.S. There is no point in being mean here; we all know that Caveman is just covering his proverbial butt.
"SPECIFICITY means more details, be specific, no generalities" forecasting rain in the 1" to 4" amounts is not exactly very specific either...
blog watcher - I can just picture you spending alot of time going back through old post taking notes and trying to figure it all out! lol Of course it is not specific like Bob said, but then again it is a basic prediction not meant to be specific to begin with.
I bet you started a file on my posts! Beginning with my newest on 94L
Post a Comment