Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Where will Gustav Go?
If you watched my 5 PM program, the only thing we know for certain is...there are many uncertainties over the next 4-5 days that could influence/change where Gustav goes and how weak or strong he'll be. For me to tell you I know more than NHC would be true arrogance. In fact, satellite loops show me Gustav drifting a little to the SW. If that's the case, the models will have to be re-run to account for that shift to the south. Rather than guess anymore, I want to wait for the 10 PM update. Gustav certainly hasn't been following any of the tracks. Will get back to you later. Again, the movement continues to be very slow so we'll have plenty of time to react...IF we need to over the weekend.
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26 comments:
Thanks Bob!
Gus is looking sorry on satellite with a poorly organized center of circulation. Drifting...and looks like Jamaica MAY not be out of the path? I'm wondering if Gus is playing a joke on us, and we'll have the last laugh? :)
See ya'll later, I'm really outta here now!
Stormzz
Bob,
Thanks for explaining the situation to us. I look at all of the sites on the net, and consequently get myself confused at times. I have just looked at the NHC site, and as you mentioned, Gustav IS moving to the southwest, albeit slowly. I will wait until your next broadcast to see your analysis of the situation. Aug. 29 is my birthday; hope we'll have some good news as a birthday gift.
Happy Birthday John...
Bob, I apologize if you commented on this, I missed your 5 pm report...
Are you checking out 95L? It's looking like a formidable rainstorm who is looking more like it could interact with the CONUS!
The plot thickens, eh?
Bob, I'm gonna go home and wait for the NHC to guess, lol!
Thanks for ALWAYS making some sense around here, Bob!
Latest VIPIR run has Gustav striking Portland, Or next week as a CAT 3 but that is after it makes landfall in Chicago, Il.
Caveman still says Tex/La line, he will stall and sit in central gulf and then head west.
Bob,
I find all of this very frustrating. My husband is taking your word and not preparing because according to what you have said the storm is not coming here. I hope and pray that you are right BUT I have two small children to think about and
after living through Katrina I can tell you I do not want to be in that position again. I guess if you are right you are a God but what happens if you are wrong? Many people are hanging on your every word so maybe you should be a little more cautious. I find it hard to believe that the NHC as well as the forecast tracks and models are dead wrong as you believe. I agree that the track could shift but even if it hits Gulf Port or Biloxi we will be affected just like Katrina.
Because of your words we have not made any plans, we are not leaving and we are not making any reservations, I hope you are right.
Bob,
Thank you so much for being straight forward and not trying to hype anything. It is getting frustrating to see the same blogger(s) send in negative thoughts. I understand that everyone has the right to their own opinion but it is beginning to get a little out of hand. This should be a blog to enter intelligent thoughts and comments and not for bloggers to bash you constantly with no real input. Thanks again for trying to keep your viewers grounded and being honest with us.
In Bob's defense he is not telling you to not to be prepared, watch the system and simply don't freak out, yet. Get the basics because even if Gus does not directly hit us there is still a good chance of power outages lasting days. Plus Bob is not dumb evey forecast is worded so that he will always be correct to some degree.
Latest VIPIR model has Gustav stalling in the Gulf for 5 months then becoming a big snow storm for New Orleans.
olemissweetie,
Not once has Bob stated that it is not coming here. Everyone should prepare. I have 5 small children and we have began to prepare even though I believe in Bob Breck 100%. No one has said it is definitely not coming here that is to include Bob Breck.
Does not matter if it is coming to us or not. We should be prepared to leave at a moments notice for any hurricane that is a threat. My photographs are still in the plastic containers from Katrina LOL. To afraid to take them out I guess. I am prepared... not packed, but prepared enough to know where my papers, and "stuff" is if I have to run. BOB>>> keep up the good work. And, Caveman... Last I heard... Gus was headed straight for Las Vegas. He is looking for a party!
Olemisssweetie ~ I second what Cajunlady said ! PREPARE ! not only for yourself but your children.
Read Bob's past posts, he has stressed that it's too early to determine where Gustav will go.
Backyard is cut, everything in the back has been put in a safe place, we are preparing for the worst but praying for the best!
Bell ~ make sure those papers are updated, like your insurance stuff!
Anyone with pets, don't forget their papers and heartworm medicine! you never know how long you'll be out
Insurance papers? Kinda late for that. Flood ain't happening if you don't already have it.
Thanks for a your offering a little bit of rational thought in the midst of a lot of irrationality. And I'm glad to see you've been moderating your comments.
caveman - you make us laugh! Which is better than the negative posts we see. I wish it were going to portland or anywhere but here for that matter. The last model update didn't look too good it's basically got the gfdl going OVER my house on the northshore. I'm not too cool about that at this point. I know we all say 5 days out in the zone is good cause it will change lord I pray it does. Bob waiting with stark patience and admiration for your next post!!
Didn't we have a storm last year that was originally forcasted to go directly to New Orleans and was in about the same spot this one is now and was torn apart by the land and the upper winds shearing off the tops....and was never a factor...
Are the conditions right now to be doing just that???
I understand you have to be prepared but people are really starting to freak out. People, please come down!
10 p.m. past bob whats going on i think we all trust you but i have a small child and will not go thru with her what i went thru with katrina
it has not changed yet
I'm enjoying reading your comments Bob. My daughter turned me on to your blog and it will be required reading from now on.
Thanks.
Thanks for your public service in this time of uncertainty.
You are a great Blue Jay Dad!
Please Caveman keep it clean and civil.
Webmaster
I am preparing for the worst. I have 3 children. I work in a pharmacy and for the past 3 days have been busier than ever. In Terrebonne Parish many of us are preparing to leave. My issue is this, our local government wants to wait until 50 hours before we feel tropical storm winds to get children out of school, have the ok to leave work and get everything done to secure our homes. Simply not enough time in my opinion. The south of Louisiana has alot of resident who simply won't leave and many who want to and cant. Mandatory evacuations should be issued earlier, better to be safe than sorry. And Bob, i hope your knowledge of hurricanes is accurate.. go east!!
Hi Bob, We watch you when it comes to the weather. Your opinion about storms we take seriously! You are the next Nash Roberts as far as we are concerned. I know you concentrate on N.O. for the storms, I understand because its right on the gulf they are 1st to evacuate. But, why don't we hear anything about our area we live. Ponchatoula/ Hammond area? Curious , Jay
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