Finally tonight is what this site was supposed to be. A sharing of ideas & discussion of what you & I are thinking. Thank you. To those "offended" my my use of the word "children", go back to previous blogs and read some of the comments. That word was not directed to those of you making common sense statements. Welcome aboard as we appreciate your comments.
Back to Gustav...the new NHC track is identical to the previous one. They(NHC) are very reluctant to make changes (remember Fay going into Lake P. ?) until it is obvious their track needs correction. They do not want to keep flip-flopping. As many of you have pointed out, the GFDL model has shifted farther westward towards Houston. However, tonight's run of our VIPIR model (yes we pay Baron's Services to use it) indicates Gustav will make a northward turn on Friday across Cuba and head up the west coast of Florida. To me. our key day will be Friday. By then Gustav will either be heading where NHC puts it (still not in Gulf) and by then we'll need to start making decisions. IF VIPIR is correct, then the danger will be more to our east. The 3rd scenario could take Gustav farther to the south into the Yucatan. I know you all are scared since Katrina, but a fella told me tonight "people need to save their energy/adrenaline for when they really need it...like when we know for sure where it will go". I couldn't have said it any better. Let's keep watching, but not react to fear, rather to reason and common sense. I'll update after my physical therapy (torn rotator cuff ) tomorrow around 11 AM.
35 comments:
I got to thinking today ... hurricanes are like landfills: nobody wants them, but they have to go somewhere!
Torn rotator cuff, that must have happened while you were boarding up the windows and unloading the newly bought generator during the time frame that 45 comments were being posted to your blog right? Remember my specific prediction, major hurricane making landfall on Tex/Lousiana boarder...
Gustav has now turned West North West.
this is serious the reason the track has not moved is because that's where it seems to be going jeeeeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzz children here we go again i concur with caveman again get prepared and make sure we listen to bob and not the Governor
caveman did it move i didnt see the g model move at all must have been looking at the light blue line..its the dark one...
My gut feeling is still more westward towards Yucatan peninsula. BUT that being said, just out of curiosity, I checked Baton Rouge and surrounding area hotel reservations....GONE..none available. There is definitely something to be said for knee-jerk reactions as we deal with PTSD (post traumatic stress disorder) from Katrina, which might as well have been last week given the dates this week. However, to the working folk, we really DON"T have alot of time to prepare for something landing Monday or Tuesday of next week. Why? Well, have people purchased boards or not to protect windows? Alot of people have become somewhat complacent after Katrina thinking "if I don't get ready for another one, maybe it won't come". Also, most people working day jobs only have the evenings to decide or pack those items they would take...and decide what to do with the stuff you leave behind (i.e. take pics for insurance, etc). Mostly though, the whole last minute evacuation scares most people greatly. Can we say 10 hours to Baton Rouge. Couple that with Labor Day on Monday! This is going to be interesting...personally, we have gassed up our vehicles because gas prices will surely rise in the next few days, and we have reservations out of town...if only to take a vacation (?). So although Gustav is far away in distance, in most people's minds, the sooner they start to prepare, the better so they don't repeat mistakes made prior to Katrina. Panic is not necessary. But it's time for individuals, families and businesses to think: do I/we have a hurricane evacuation plan and what's the timeline? You think "ok, if I have to leave, I might miss some work next week, school for the kids, and then, gotta get grandparents ready to roll because they move really slow." Too early? It all depends on the individual/family/business point of view. No doom and gloom. Focus on the plan. It may be a dry run and for nothing. But if it isn't, then lessons learned from Katrina won't have been in vain....breathe, plan, and watch Bob Breck!!
breathe trust in models
The NHC forecast track was a surprise. Having said that, let's hope that there is a trend back toward a track for landfall to our east. This latest discussion was the first mention that I had seen of a TUTT supposedly diving down. I had thought that we were supposed to under a ridge that was supposed to be staying in place for several days and more or less giving protection as with the track of Edouard. It's hard to buy into a relatively straight line track, though, from Cuba to the gulf coast if this new scenario is happening. I have never, for one, seen any storm stay on even a straight line track; there's always some kind of curvature. If it's supposed to be such a major feature wouldn't the storm track on a strong right curve because of the flow catching and pulling it? I'm very worried about the track that they show now; chances would figure to be high that the storm would do that almost customary right turn-right-before-landfall that it seems we have seen very often and not stay on a path all the way to central LA but rather make the turn and track right at 90 deg. W. In other words if they show a straight line that goes right up the mouth of the river then I would figure on a actual landfall on the MS/AL state line.
Bottom line: when and where exactly is this TUTT supposed to be arriving, what effect will it have and why did no one mention this before?
Here's something useful, instead of all of the hype...
The Red Cross Hurricane Evacuation Checklist!
http://www.redcross.org/news/ds/hurricanes/evacuationchecklist.html
Please get prepared, because at ANY time, we could be dealing with a major storm....not just this one.
Stay tuned to Bob, radio, the Weather Channel....inform yourselves as to the latest changes....and make no mistake, there WILL be changes!
Thanks Bob for an outstanding weather forecast tonight! Hopefully, some folks got a taste of how many scenarios there are for this storm, and GET PREPARED!!
Stormzz
Sorry, the Check List link got cut off!
http://www.redcross.org/news/ds/hurricanes
/evacuationchecklist.html
Please type this in in one continuous string.
Nite all...
Stormzz
QUOTE:
That word was not directed to those of you making common sense statements. Welcome aboard as we appreciate your comments.
endquote
I have been told that even though I'm not well educated, my common sense is very uncommon, so now I'm confused as to what you really mean ?
I'm so confused.
Bob, You are truly one of a kind...and this is a compliment coming from the husband of a wife who is already stressing abt Gustav. She called me yesterday scared to death. I told her I just read Bob's blog and for her to log on and read it also. Amazingly she calmed down. Thanks for the words of wisdom and for giving each of us the ability to REACT when needed and to not OVERREACT. You are greatly appreciated on the Northshore.
Common sense - it is common sense to be prepared. You can buy boards but don't need to put them up just yet. you can buy most supplies instead of waiting for the last minute "rush" (assuming you have the funds). you can pick 2 or 3 destinations (depending where it will go - NE, N, NW) but don't make reservations just yet.
I'm 38 years old and have watch Bob since I was a teen and have only known him to be "wrong" once. Usually, when he says "I think this is what's going to happen" he's pretty accurate. And if he's not sure he tells you that he's not sure.
Bob,
Good luck with the rotator cuff and I pray you don't need surgery.
Look'n more like Gustav actually may be Katrina's brother and he has come look'n for his little sis on her anniversary! Don't worry he will be a Cat 3 at landfall, not very many if any have actually hit as Cat 4's.
Thanks Bob, after Katrina I ended up in hattiesburg...there is no one like you up here...i am so glad i found your blog....keep up the therapy...
Bob, What about that cold/cool front that was mentioned for late this week end? Does that still come into play as far as the track? Is it still supposed to come? If it could play a role in the track, why aren't the computer models picking up on it? Thanks!
Hmmmm...very interesting that the historical maps, showing all storms having passed within 300 miles of Gustav, shows mostly passage over Florida after crossing over Cuba.
At the same time, NO storms have hit Louisiana that have been in the same position!
All guidance this morning tends to suggest a more easterly turn....so like cn_s_la said, it's great to be prepared....and then STAY TUNED!
I think we'll see a LOT of changes before the day is over....Gustav is slowed virtually to a halt, and friends, that usually means it's struggling with outside forces. I'm still breathing a bit easier, but ready!
"it's struggling with outside forces" what? I think you need to look at Cuba's radar! Gustav is starting to get his act back together... Stating that New Orleans should be fine because no storm has ever hit New Orleans from Gustav's current location is worse than any statment I have made! Gustav has already set one record...
Caveman, caveman...
I didn't say that the storm was becoming less organized....I said struggling with outside forces....
That would be forces guiding it more toward the north when it would love to go to the west!
Are you here to just bash everyone including Bob? In no way do your comments add to this blog, and in fact, are simply nonsense.
Maybe crawling back into that cave may be useful...especially since you want to create mayhem here and convince everyone that the end of the world is hitting New Orleans asap, in contrary to what most guidance is suggesting right now! Oh, and don't tell me about your GFDL....if predicting weather was as easy as reading the models, even YOU might be joining us GS paid folk in doing so :)
The historical models DO matter, as there are trends in guidance that is interpolated in all forcasting. Surely there will be a first outlying storm, but based on guidance, this one seems to be following more in line with historical paths.
It's early yet...talk to me tomorrow and I think that we may see some changes to the forecast track from NHC...
You asked for my best guess? I'm going to hedge an educated guess....this is AS GOOD AS IT GETS at this point: I would say between Lake Charles and the Florida Panhandle...TOO SOON to say otherwise. I have a feeling, a real gut feeling, but to say what it is is irresponsible....Lots of folks read blogs, and trust Bob, and sometimes they read ONLY "THE Ms/LA border" or "Florida Panhandle" but miss the fact that crossing Miami is possible....
In New Orleans, everyone has PTSD and there is no valid reason to get ugly with anyone at this time, or create un-needed mayhem when it is simply TOO soon to tell.
Guidance will settle down tomorrow depending on what the High building over Florida does, and how strong it is....then we will know a lot more.
How about a positive and sensible word for the folks reading this blog, instead of ugly emotion? Can't you go pick on someone from the weather channel? ha ha...
Gotta go do some work now...back to my own cave ;)
Stormzz
ps...Bob...Viper isn't looking so bad this morning, hmmmm? :)
Oh, here are a few facts to remember folks:
Gustav is a small storm with an open eye, with a small area from which tropical force winds extend. AS OF NOW, this is NOT Katrina....not even close.
Gustav is over 1300 miles away.....50 miles of variance from the projected path NOW can make HUNDREDS of miles difference as to when and where it makes landfall.
There is potential for strengthening, and it has the potential to move into our back yards, but we don't know where, when or how strong it will be....
SO, monitor frequently, get prepared and keep a positive outlook. Remember, Katrina was a rare type of storm....ALL storms can be dangerous, spawning dangerous cyclonic activity, but we are NOT sitting here now, with Katrina bearing down upon us.
Take a breath, and watch Bob tonight....if you feel better about it, buy some water...a few cans, but relax!
Hope ya'll have a great day!
Stormzz
We have a trip planned to Cozumel, Mexico leaving on 8/27 and returning 9/2. We've pretty much canceled the trip. Do you think there is a chance we could still go?
stormzz -
It is VIPIR not VIPER! And you say you are a meteorologist with years of experience? hmmm yeah and I am Santa Clause.. Do you even know what the beta affect is and how it will come into play with Gustav? hurry up and google it.
Have you guys seen the new Models Weather underground has ONLY ONE model pointing towards us...The kkavemann who is an optimist
Hey Bob- Thanks for the updates, and being the voice of reason through these times.
Good luck with that rotator cuff- the cortisone injections are not fun...
Okay, seeing the models shifting again....once again a B-line to the mouth of the Mississippi....last night on Bob's weather segment, he showed Vipir model run, crossing Cuba and going towards Florida.
So what is in Vipir's Model that has it so different than what I am seeing from all these other models?
So should be cranking up the tune...Riders on the Storm!!!
Just a little comment about the hotels in Baton Rouge being booked... there is an LSU game this weekend. No need to panic. It's not people evacuating. Seriously people, chill out for another day or two, THEN you can freak.
Caveman, google the word "typo." I don't profess to be a secretary!
About that "Specific" and Waaaay too early prediction for landfall...uh, the Texas/LA border? I have one word for ya buddy....EAST!!!
ONE WORD!!!
Beta Effect? LOLOLOL You've been in your Cave too long...
Remember MY specific forecast: EEEEAAAASSSTTTTT!
Well, I'm gonna go look at the VIPOR, Caveman....
....or is it Santa Claus? HHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Santa, we need to (Tex/LA) get you Bob's Job....(Tex/LA...I'm remembering)....so that YOU can get paid for your superior knowledge!
HHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
For those of you attacking Bob's expertise and knowledge as a meteorologist need to back down. I am sure you have no education in meteorology. Bob is excellent at his job. I do not listen to anyone except for him. He knows what he is talking about. He doesn't excite anyone for no reason. When he gets worried then you know it time to worry. If he is calm then you know it is okay to be calm. I believe in him and so should everyone else that is knocking him. VIPIR is excellent at predicting paths. If you don't like what Bob has to say or what VIPIR shows and do not trust him then why read his blogs.
Does anyone have a link to where I can find VIPIR tracking online?
Everyone just needs to calm down and wait a couple more days to see what happens with this thing. As Bob and every other meteorologist have said, the cone of error is too large at this point to start freaking out. You still need to make sure all your preparations are in order, but do not jump the gun. My aunt has already booked a room in Jackson and I think it is way too early to do those things.
I'll tell you one thing. I was prepared physically for the last one, very organized and took the proper papers, etc... I will be more prepared psychologically for this one. I'm not leaving my school on Friday without every single one of my students' cell phone numbers and e-mail addresses. I'm not losing my kids again.
Bob, I do hope things went well for you this morning. I was hoping to see a comment from my voice of reason ~ yes, i'm sitting on the edge of the chair, looking at the graphs, can't find a hotel that will accept my dogs and listening to people here.
please post something soon . . .
Not to be an alarmist, but we've booked flights to central Canada just in case there's a large amount of trophosperic cooling in the states. But we had sky miles built up so no big deal if we decide not to go.
Booking a hotel rooom is good common sense. In the event the track holds true, if you wait until then you will have to drive a long way. I have made reservations (which can be cancelled) just to be sure I have a place to go. It is not knee jerk reaction related to PTSD from Katrina. I have lived here all my life and it pays to be prepared. How many people waited to the last minute and found themselves without places to stay or stuck on the roads. As a veteran of many hurricanes in my 45 years, it simply makes good sense to be prepared. So if you buy some water and spam it will eventually be used.
Post a Comment