Aside from a few of you who want to beat each other up, there were many good suggestions. Over & over I heard...Leave early. That's a no brainer, except as several pointed out, some can't for financial reasons...some can't for health reasons. Let me add, for every time you leave early (3 days or more out), 4 out of five times will be for "nothing" as the storm is likely to turn and miss us. Since it takes over $1,000+ to evacuate a family of 4 for a week, how many times can most folks evacuate during a season? I believe once for most but that's it...after that people will take the gamble. So to say leave early is way too simple a solution.
The person who called me "irresponsible" needs to check how many died during the evacuation of Hurricane Rita (110+) compared to those who actually died from the storm' surge & winds. Try to tell the lady, who told me she would NEVER leave again since she had to take her 84 year old Mother behind some bushes off the interstate to go pee, that it's dangerous to stay. It's also dangerous to leave for some. Thinking most people could or should leave early is just being in "La-La Land". Ain't gonna happen. Soooo, we need other solutions, like alternate routes instead of the interstates or understanding that not EVERYONE needs to leave. That's where personal "accountability/responsibility" comes in to play. The person who suggested that it's our public officials that have the responsibility to improve the system is right on. I think we finally have a Governor who is a take change person. Some of these problems will be fixed. Others won't.
Let's hope people understand where they live requires a different reaction than say if you live north of I-12 where elevation will keep the water away. The overwhelming killer in a tropical system is not the wind, it's the water.
Finally regarding 1/2 of Galveston...their seawall did what it was designed to do. It protected the structures behind it. However, those who chose to stay have no power, no air-conditioning, no services. If it were me, I'd leave and not have to endure those kinds of hardships. However, I understand and accept that some will stay behind. My question for you then is "How can we be responsible for the irresponsible?" Give me answers that have compassion, understanding and thought behind them. Perhaps the answer is...there is no answer?
21 comments:
Bob, thanks for summing it all up! LOL...
I think that we have to check on neighbors, think of them. I was recently told that a friend's neighbor didn't have anywhere to go, and no family, no money...could they bring her to my home. "Sure," I said.
I remember before Katrina, calling friends in the neighborhood at 3 am, and asking each of them to call 3 people and us getting most of the neighbors out. Many had just been relocated from up north, and had no idea what it was really all about.
EVERYONE knows someone. If we all check on others, take ONE minute for a phone call to try to help one person, it will make a difference.
Before the argument ensues, I know that there are exceptions to the rule, and not everyone can look out for others, or have someone over to their homes...but if those who CAN make an effort to help those that can't, it will make a difference.
I also think that education is paramount. Why are there not public service announcements on TV about hurricane season ...different segments....one spot about foods, another about gasoline and it's safe storage, another about evacuation...on and on. I mean, as a community, we ALL have to inform. NOT everyone has good sense, and I'm not putting them down, as there will ALWAYS be greater and lesser folks amongst us. SHAME on us, if we have the ability, knowledge and can help others and don't!
We each need to think about those around us, our capabilities, and put our talents to good use.
Stormzz
Well, that didn't work! Sorry about the double post.
When we evacuate from the Morgan City area, we do not even try to go main highways. In fact, we don't touch them. Someone pulled out our atlas, our son-in-law found a back route and took it. We have done this over and over, and like someone else said, we are the only people ON the roads we take! It continues to be this way even today.
Why does everyone think the major highways are the only way out? We have left as late as the day before landfall and our route was still not blocked! Yes, I understand the northshore and bridges; believe me in Morgan City, we have the same issues. However, there are back roads around to the west that can get you to a northerly back road route.
Why would anyone want to evacuate going east or west on the coastline? We all know hurricanes don't follow the suggested dotted line...
Hotels and motels - we cannot build enough that we could afford to stay in to house all of us - I think we can all agree to that. Our families and friends need to rally and open doors when possible, those that have campers need to park them up north, and we need to leave the hotels/motels for those that don't have that option - and yes, if you aren't going to USE the room, then don't BOOK it.
We have stayed in a family owned 3 bedroom/2 bath condo with 17 people, 5 dogs, 2 cats and made do. The animals tolerated each other and there were no mihaps. Hurricanes are not about convenience and comfort. Being safe is the issue. Bring your blanket and pillow and make pallets - we did not have comfy beds, but we were safe.
I agree with being accountable for your family, being prepared and being reasonable. However, part of being prepared could be to pull out the trusty paper map and check out alternate routes - and take the map with you so when you hit a snag you can re-evaluate the situation, regroup and go forth. There is more than one road and
3 bridges to north Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas.
Gas is the one thing someone needs to deal with. If we know a hurricane is coming, the gas stations need to get extra trucks to the stations, in hour intervals if that is what it takes, to get us out. However, I do realize the people MANNING the trucks and stations also need to evacuate.
Lastly, yes our government officials need to get on the same page in all states to help evacuate, but until then, it is up to us.
In the meantime, we do live on the coast, for whatever reason we have chose to live here and we need to accept the fact that it will happen again and again. Hurricanes are a fact of our lives - they are not going away.
Imagaine the amount of levees Louisiana has - small and large. No government can build 25 foot sea walls to ward off the storm surges, and even if they could, we would not be willing to pay the taxes or go through the inconveniences to make it happen.
Bob, I have been a fan of yours since you came onboard. You are an incredible forecaster, and I realize that you are human. Now if others would just do the same. Thank you for the great job you do and the sense of responsiblity you show us - and I am fine with you making an occasional mistake or two ;-)
Hi Bob,
I think the only answer is to figure out exactly why we sent a commission of La. figureheads to the Netherlands to learn about a fantastic way to protect our state that we will never employ. I really believe that the rebuilding of our wetlands in correlation of similar locks and channels to block surge would actually negate the need to evacuate at all (with the addition of underground electrical lines, such as those in Houston's medical centers).
I understand the costs would be astronomical, but the constant state of emergency, shelters, busing, food stamps, search and rescue, and commission of electric lineman and tree cutters nationwide surely is comparable.
Until then, each family must do what they can as their finances allow, and those who cannot must rely on what state help they will provide.
What ever happened to the roads that were used before highways and interstates were built? I guess so many of us have never used these roads before so have no knowledge of them. Just as others have posted, using these old roads could save people so much time and headache. The officials need to put the word out to the citizens. They need to be shown alternate routes out of their areas. This may help out somewhat.
As for the WHEN to leave? That is everyone's own decision. If you can take off work and have the means to just go whenever, then leaving early is the way to go. For those of us that cant, listen to the officials and make your best judgement call as to when to go. Just know that traffic may be heavier but at least you wil be safe.
Good night everyone and keep up the good discussions.
Tammy
... Again, I say it is our responsiblity, not the government's, to take out our paper map and figure a way out of the danger zone. I am quite sure the government has enough on their hands without showing each of us individually a path to safety. Can't we the people can take on a bit of the load?
Many good points about how we as a collective need to take responsibility for ourselves (those of us who can). We have invested (about $20 I think) in State Gazateers. This is an atlas of each quad of the state with a topo map and all roads including FM (Farm to Market)and just about any road that exists. We use these when we vacation because its fun to check out the back roads but it's also invaluable for evacuation. When following primary evac routes you can know where potential alternate routes are ahead of time. The key is to study the map early before you leave and make note of alternate routes rather than try to find them on the fly.
When it comes to what we can do to help our neighbors who are either unable or too stubborn.... During Gustav I had twelve people in my house who evacuated from low lying areas. I offered my place to them and their neighbors and families. I offered for those who wanted to go, if we had decided to, to ride with us to our evacuation destination. When some protested because they had no money to offer, I simply said "we are going anyway, adding a person to the car isn't costing us any more than we are already spending".
So for those of us who can, insist on helping those who can't. Drag them if you must.
While I agree that water is the overwhelming killer is an tropical system, wind is also a factor if people choose to stay in buildings that aren't designed to withstand the wind. And then there are the situations where people go someplace they think is safe and tree falls on the house and kills them.
It should also be noted that during a storm of any type that brings high winds, the second story is not the place to ride it out. Every warning for high wind that ever comes out says "get to the lowest level in an internal room, hall or closet"....
A massive train system would never get off the ground because nobody would ever invest in it espeacially in a tanking economy. Plus a railroad systme would just set barely used during the off seasons and the up keep would be enormous.
If people cannot afford to evacuate then may be they need to rethink where they live and start making plans for the future which may be to relocate farther north.
Mandatory evacs are called upon as a last resort when public officials don't see anybody taking a storm seriously and leaving on their own.
Instead of spending millions or even billions on transist systems to get people out of harms way they can spend much less on educating everyone (should already be educated by now) on how to get out of harms way on their own. People need to educate themselves and understand that public officials are not their parents and to make decisions on their own.
The one then that will make hurricane evacuations work is common sense. Don't wait til the day before landfall to decide to gas up, don't wait til 2 days out to go buy supplies, don't wait til the storm is making landfall to decide it is time to leave et.. common sense is all that is needed. If you have common sense you will do just fine.
Caveman I agree with much of what you said, but here is the rub...
Education? In our state, everyone goes to school, yet we have HOW MANY 8th graders who can not read? I mean, EDUCATE YOURSELVES? It's hard enough to try to shove education down folks throats, let alone them educating themselves. I think that MUCH more needs to be done to specifically give points to people using various media. But drumming the point home over and over is what MOST folks need. They just don't get it...I KNOW, it makes no sense to me either, but I am compassionate towards this plight of humanity, and think that this has to be overcome in order for people to be safe.
What can we do at home? Talk to family members about SPECIFICS, not just "are you going to evacuate?" Talk to them and discuss routes, BEFORE hurricanes are coming. IF STAYING, make sure that those who understand the worst case scenario, POUND it into others heads, so that they will prepare. THIS MUST be a priority for ALL of us living on the coast, being prepared. Again, if we don't help each other to do this, it will not happen.
I went to the Yucatan immediately after Wilma hit them. I felt that the devastation was FAR WORSE than what we saw with Katrina. Yet, the people did not complain...if someone was in need, someone with a small piece of bread, tore it in two and shared. From the first day, they held hands and rebuilt...they opened their homes to each other as well.
I do not understand living in New Orleans, and saying "But I don't live in a flood zone!" WHAT? The entire coast is a flood zone. I always knew, and for EVERY storm that looked like a direct hit, moved the TV, valuables, etc...upstairs and covered it with a tarp. I notice now, that EVERYONE I knew who flooded in Katrina, moved what property they could upstairs...or on blocks. So why can't we help each other to understand what can happen, and do EVERYTHING we can to save property, and decide if we are safe in our homes, or should leave. Any doubt? Those with safe homes, OPEN the doors. I don't want to live with knowing that I could have saved a life and didn't!
I just want to make one statement about Amsterdam. I NEVER understand the comparison. AMSTERDAM does NOT have hurricanes and a storm surge problem to deal with. Their dikes would be crumbled by a hurricane here!
I have read study after study looking at repairing the coast, and the plight of endangering some rare moth (just an example), so it's always recommended that more studies be done. I'm over it! I don't care about a moth, I care about humans! I agree, Governor Jindal gets it....and although I don't think that we can totally repair our coastline (we're fighting a really strong opponent), we must START, and make a dent. WE MUST write to our officials, and demand that our dollars be spend to protect us, or it won't happen.
I'd like to see better educational spots...and all media needs to be responsible. I don't think that the responsibility of media is JUST to tell me about a robbery on Canal Street. DAILY, do a 30 second piece on TV, during the news, on POINT # 1...buying food for a hurricane. I'd like to see daily spots in the newspaper. I mean, folks are just not all savvy about storms. WHY? It's human nature.
So, we can complain about how if people don't get it, too bad...or we can try to help them. EVERYONE needs to do their parts!
That's my rant for the day...and Geezzzze, I hate cool weather, but I'm mighty glad I'm not looking at any damned storms today!
:) Y'all have a great day!
Stormzz
OOps, one more thing...my post was eaten by blog gremlins...
I have one politically incorrect statement that I'm sure ya'll won't like, and to me, it illustrates just ONE problem with government assistance.
I spoke to several folks in New Orleans, who were evacuated at NO COST to themselves, fed and sheltered while away. They returned to their usual state, and then stood in line for food stamps, because they qualified. WHY?
What about the folks who earn a meager living, evacuated at a great cost to their families, and returned unable to find money for food? THIS WAS COMMON!! Yet, they didn't qualify for food stamps because they made a bit of money.
What's wrong with this picture? Folks were helped because they don't make money, not because they incurred storm costs. Who the heck do we complain to about stuff like this?
Houston, we have some problems here!
Stormzz
South Louisiana and surrounding states have delt with MANY hurricanes during the past 5 years, during each of those years everyone from the media to the paperboy have done everything except slap people to wake them up about what supplies are needed and how to get out of harms way of a hurricane. There is not much more that can be done other than going house to house prior to a storm and talk to people like they are kids and take them by hand and walk them to their cars etc. and say it is time to leave now. Public officials can only do so much, residents need to be accountable for their own family. The gov't both state and fed was not designed nor intended to be a giant babysitter for us.
Hi Bob,
THANK YOU for your logical advice on local hurricane weather.
Recently, me and my wife made a plan to take at least one of our mini-vacations in times of an evacuation. We also decided to fly wherever we go instead of drive and get stuck in traffic.
This might sound strange but think about the advantages;
1. The evacuation cost ($1500 plus) is better spent on a place where we want to go vs. staying in a small town in the middle of Louisiana.
2. Since the offices are closed, you get "free days" off which you can be utilize as vacation days.
3. It gets your mind of the hurricane drama. When Gustave came we took a mini vacation to San Antonio. I refuse to watch the news and just read your blog via my PDA phone. Which did not say the world will end in few days, thank you!
Again, I know people will say it is easier said then done BUT if one plans it right by saving a little extra cash and have a city in mind then one can act really quickly when Hurricane enters the gulf.
PS: We used Southwest Airlines to evacuate (Cheap!). They did not even charge me a fee when I changed the return date since it was part of their "Hurricane Policy". All I told them was due to no power at my house in Kenner i need to extend my return date. They are very helpful!
One little thing on public assistance, ANYONE that gets anykind of public assistance such as WIC, Foodstamps, free daycare, etc etc should be required to be on freak'n BIRTH CONTROL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! while they are getting the freebies...
My humble $.02-worth, for what it's worth:
A. Civil authorities really need to beat the drum at the start of hurricane season about family preparedness - - much more so than they do already. The old saw about when you're sick of saying it people are just starting to get it holds true. They need to put out PSAs on TV, get the preachers preaching, get on the talk shows, put up signs on busses, pass out materials in the schools and drive home the idea that (1) YOU are the most important factor in saving yourself and you need certain tools to do so and (2) if you cannot take responsibility for yourself and your family, you should leave - - either on your own steam or on a chartered bus to shelters with the other sheeple.
B. Bob, I don't know if you're the one to do this, and the idea is fraught with liability issues, but surely there's some metric that can be devised by some smart people that can take into account multiple variables (storm size, strength, direction, tide cycles + neighborhood characteristics) that will indicate "safer" areas vs. those that should be evacuated.
People in "safer" areas who ARE PREPARED should stay put. People who are not prepared should evacuate. People in unsafe areas should go. If they're prepared, they can go to "safer" areas; if not, they should evacuate.
Of course, if a realy humdinger is headed our way there may be no "safer" areas and everyone should go. Let's hope it never comes to that.
Maybe Stephanie or the last poster sort of get it.
We simply must get beyond evacuation-centric and especially mass evacuation-centric thinking here.
It's just not going to work, for many reasons and some just as Bob described, to keep doing that over and over. Evacuation is a royal pain and I can't blame people for wondering "what's the point?" or "why go through the trouble?" especially as it does seem that very often these storms get hyped up one or another and I thought that was what Bob was getting at.
It seems pretty simple: the best way to help more people be able to evacuate and do so with less pain, ironically, is to have fewer people overall having the absolute need to evacuate, which is also the best thing from the perspective of faster rebuilding and recovery post-event.
And what the heck are these levees currently being built supposed to accomplish anyway if not to help us to get to that status?
Finish the levee work, of course, is my prescription. Then, think about once again having shelters on the south shore (NOT one big shelter like the Dome but rather a bunch of smaller ones) for those who don't have generators, etc.
Mandatory or even strongly recommended mass evacuations every 5 years or so is not the way to go and will accomplish nothing except hasten the decline of this community. We need to get to where the only time that this happens would be the genuine once in a thousand year storm.
Hi Bob,
I feel that the first order of business, which the city and state have never invested any interest in, is to study the system that amsterdam has - heavily steeled enforced levees that can withstand a cat 5 storm. Had officials looked into a better levee system going all the way back to Betsy in 1965, there would be no need to evacuate now.
That said, people would still be without power, but with the money that they wouldn't have to spend evacuating, generators could be bought, more food and supplies could be bought, homes could have better protection from wind damage.
So, the answer doesn't lie in "how to fix contraflow or how to evacuate more smoothly but rather how to fix/construct a levee system so that no evacuations are necessary.
For starters, the alternate routes and different roads thing: that is your smartest bet. I happen to have a nice navigation system, so its simple for me. But if you don't bring an atlas, and have 2-3 (or more) possible routes picked out. There is no reason you won't save hours!
Secondly, there has to be some way to phase an evacuation. Opening contra-flow and basically saying "ready, set, GO!" is not the best solution. Maybe do some sort of contra-flow with traffic signals turned off and streets blocked through non-interstate highways and busy streets?
Thirdly (and I know there are laws and regulations that make this difficult), we need to work out some sort of better system with area (I mean the entire south/southeast) hotels. As it sits right now, you can easily book a few hotels weeks in advance- and if you cancel you're only out a few bucks. So once a hurricane is anywhere near the Gulf, you'll find everything booked from Texas to Atlanta. It makes planning very difficult.
Finally: get the darn electricity working so we're not gone for 3 more days (which means hundreds of dollars).
Victoria....
See, I disagree with the whole Amsterdam levee idea. Why? "Category 5 levee system" Please tell me when Amsterdam's levees were ever tested against a Category 5 hurricane? In fact, when has a hurricane ever struck them?
See, there are MANY problems with levees. They are only as good as the ONE weak spot, and where does it end? Do we levee up the entire coast line? How do we protect all of the areas outside of New Orleans from floods? Let's remember, Slidell is ABOVE SEA LEVEL, and many folks that I know got 6-8 feet of water in their homes from a 40 foot storm surge. These folks lived several miles away from the lake...I do NOT see a huge levee system being the answer.
A levee system can afford SOME protection, but where does it end?
Additionally, (ducking from pans flying at me...) if levees did not exist as they are now, silt would be depositing along the MS. river outlet, and we would NOT have the erosion along the coast that we now have. EVERYTHING that we do has another consequence.
In my opinion, we need to have some levee protection, and make sure that if it fails, we will either be safe staying...and prepared, and when too dangerous, a place to evacuate, or evacuation plan.
That is where government officials need to do a better job...come up with a BETTER plan for evacuation, then better educate on WHO should stay, and WHO should go, rather than mass evacuations.
That's just wwhat I think...
Stormzz
"Let me add, for every time you leave early (3 days or more out), 4 out of five times will be for "nothing" as the storm is likely to turn and miss us."
I don't know about that, maybe few years ago yeah, but this year the NHC has been doing pretty good with nailing the where a hurricane is going 3 days plus out. Gustav and Ike are just two recent examples, plus with hurricanes growing in size lately that could be a problem. Esp if nobody leaves early then all of a sudden after day 3 everyone realizes the storm is following the NHC track then there could be panic and the roads will be jammed packed at once.
Bob,
Let me state with my first post ever on this blog that your voice of reason is much appreciated by myself at least. Having read and remembered Aesop's Fables, "The Little Boy That Cried Wolf" comes to mind first. I am a firm believer in telling people the truth and allowing them to make their decision for themselves. The Elderly and Infirm that are unable to make these decisions must of course be taken care of. Most people however are able to make decisions for themselves. Scaring people to death when a storm is so far away is frankly irresponsible. As you so aptly point out, most people can't afford more than one evacuation per year if even that one. Strong talk should be saved for once the certainty becomes..more certain...not when storms are NINE days away when as most of us know tracking a storm much more than 3 days out is usually akin to that sure thing when someone calls their bookie.
The true solution to the situation is a combination of personal responsibility and government actually acting in the capacity it is mandated to that being providing for our common defense even against mother nature.
Personal responsibility revolves around people moving away from cheaper methods of building and spending that extra 10-20% you have mentioned to build near hurricane proof homes. Let me point out these homes tend to yield benefits not only in safety but also show economic advantages in greater energy efficiency and reduced insurance costs and greater ability to NOT evacuate. Remember...pay now..or pay later. Additionally, we need to provide adequate supplies with which to weather a storm. Bottled water and and canned goods are not pricey if you do it sensibly.
Our government needs to cater more to our most basic defense needs. The first line of defense is one that nature originally provided for us..that was the barrier islands..We have lost most of this defense for various reasons which I will exclude to not add to my current verbosity. Barrier islands can be built with relative ease as we have the Mississippi River, a perpetual source of rich soil. Dredge ships as used in Dubai for their island projects are built in Reserve, La. We have everything needed to do it at our disposal, including a state surplus to provide funds. The greatest impediment at present are irrational environmental concerns which essentially will become moot once the coast disappears altogether. The cynic in me suspects there often are too many concerns with how to maneuver contracts to cronies and/or to best position things for political advantage. We need to speak out for our barrier islands as forcefully as we spoke out against legislative pay raises. This is only the start of our proper protection but far from its full complement. I'll relent from my diatribe and save more for another time..
Actually, the Dutch have faced some very severe storms in their history (last January there was a storm of hurricane-force winds) but they don't merely sit back and take it and order mass evacuations time after time.
At one time, springtime floods were the problem but we've dealt with that with the spillway and no one worries any more. Ditto yellow fever. I see no reason why flooding from hurricanes cannot or should not be dealt with, also.
If we throw our hands in the air and say that it just can't be done and that we simply are going to have to have mass evacuations every few years then the whole greater New Orleans and river region community and much of the northshore is just about over with as a viable community. People will not put up with it and not only that the costs and other assorted accompanying hassles of living here will become just too great.
I say to not give it all up just yet, and, more than that, that Hurricane Gustav showed that the levee system was far from totally worthless and useless.
After all, with Katrina, the levees were NOT overtopped as much as broken.
Yes, there's a very long way to go but I'd rather fight for the Category 5 level protection than surrender to having to have periodic mass evacuations.
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