As I told you last night, Ike has started his trek towards Texas. What we've seen today is an increase in forward speed and a total agreement of computer models focusing on the upper Texas coast near Galveston/Houston. There is a NEAR ZERO chance that he can now turn to the north increasing impacts to SE LA. We will continue to see high water through Saturday as strong south winds will force water towards the coast. Some squalls overnight and during the day on Friday may contain wind gusts 40-50+ mph, but the brunt of Ike will stay far to our west.
We all know what this means for Texas. Power out for days? Storm surge 10-15 ft. bringing local flooding? They will suffer what many in LA have already been thru. We pray that Ike doesn't strengthen and maybe even weakens. Happy for us, yet sad for them.
Some answers...the increased hurricane cycle ,that Dr. Gray first talked about back in 1988 , began in 1995. Dr. Gray stated these cycles last 20-30 years meaning we're in year 13 with another 10-20 years to go. that doesn't mean every year will be active...look at 2006-7.
Loop current...We have seen 2 hurricanes move over the warm loop current in the Gulf and NOT get stronger. NHC believes drier air wrapping into both systems kept them from getting more powerful. It's more than just water temperatures that make up a hurricane.
To Holly...Katrina vs Gustav...Katrina had stronger winds, higher storm surge, but less rainfall. Gustav had heavier rainfall.
Path errors...Why can't NHC be better at 2 days out? They are getting better but the forecast error at 2 days still is roughly 100 miles...50-60 at 1 day.
North shore river flooding? Since I don't see rainfall greater than 1-3", we should not see any major flooding on N-Shore rivers.
No evacuations years ago...I remember that...in fact for Frederic (1979, Elena 1985 and others) we didn't leave. What happened? 1) we are in a more frequent cycle during which storms are stronger. 2) the levee failure in Katrina put the fear of God in many of us. 3) and Most importantly, We have far less wetlands/barrier islands to protect/knock down storm surge.
Finally, worry about Josephine? Are you kiddin' me? I'm going to get a good night sleep knowing Ike is not coming here.
12 comments:
Thanks Bob, now I can sleep well to! Its definelty a blustery night!
JOSEPHINE? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Thanks for the info....
JOSEPHINE?
lol
Sleep well, Bob!
StormzzzzzzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
lol
Please pray for us down here in Terrebonne Parish. It is beginning to shape up as a Katrina/Rita scenario. Water is starting to pile up in the lower part of the parish and we are waiting for first light to see the levels in Montegut and Point-aux-chenes. If the estimations are correct, we are in for a lot of water.
Thanks to all.
i was sleeping good til all the tornado warning sirens started :(
There's quite a bit of wind up here!
I live in Algiers but work in New Orleans east and it was not fun driving to work this morning. Between the wind and the rain blowing all over the place you had the idiots thinking it was a normal driving day. Driving down Almonaster was not fun with no lights either.
Bob:
Becuase of you, I have switched my defalut weather channel from a famous 3-letter station to WVUE. Good job.
What does the term Invest91 mean. I always see a tropical low refered to by that name. Is there ever an Invest92?
Phil Haase
News is alot of people are sticking it out and not leaving Galveston, TX! Can't believe people build their homes right on the beach in Galveston, as some point your house will be destroyed, may be in a year or 15 but it will happen at some point. Don't think will see nothing like the death rate from Katrina but will see a hundred or so. Insurers will raise rates big time after this year and the states insurance commissioners will have no choice but to approve the increases either. I have had my cave for thousands of years with very little damage because I built it out of solid rock and it is raised.
Oh yeah, Caveman thinks Bob rules the weather world....
caveman's back? interesting developments...as far as people building on the beach in galveston- after seeing the wrath of Ivan and Katrina, many people would say the same about the MS and AL and FL beaches too! It sure is pretty landscape but it comes with a price and risk. Feeling relief for NOLA is a bit like waiting for a heart transplant and getting it- you are thrilled for yourself but torn up about the fact that someone else had to suffer on your behalf. Many prayers for Texas!
This storm surge expected for Galveston will be devistational! The barrier wall (seawall) is only 15 feet high and the storm surge is expected to be 20-25 feet! Water was already up to the wall this morning...NO MORE SAND was visible. These people are in for a nightmare and I only pray that Ike dissipates a bit before landfall. The sun is actually out here in Metairie (9:55 AM Friday).
Hopefully this is the last of our 2008 Hurricane Season! I know Bob needs some rest after these two weeks!
Nashette
Bob, we watch you vigilantly for weather and storms because you use caution and we feel it helps to calm the hype. We live in Houma, Louisiana and right now Fri. morning 9/12 @ almost 10:30 a.m. our lower parts of our parish have the levees being overtopped and we still have a long day and night to go! It is bad and we need help! We've beeen forgotten here. Please tune in on the web to HTV10.TV, our local news station by Mr. Martin Folse and you will get a bird's eye veiw of our problem. Could you please get the word out of our desperate situation. You can reach Martin on the air @ 985-879-1231. Thanks!! And we are glad New orleans has been spared cause you guys have gone thru alot too, but we really need help. Gustav did ALOT of damage and now Ike is runnung it's course. We hope to hear from you.
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