Since several of you brought up some past storms and questioned my remarks about October & November storms...this is what I said...A MAJOR hurricane has NEVER crossed the LOUISIANA coast after the first week of October. The great 1893 storm is the only MAJOR hurricane in October and that happened in the first week. In 1985, Hurricane Juan (Cat. 1) did a double loop hitting SE LA. twice in late October. Later in November 1985, Hurricane Kate (Cat. 3) threatened us briefly but quickly turned into Florida. Jim brought up the reasons why...basically a change in seasons that bring the westerlies farther south along with cold fronts.
I agree with caveman's statement about slowing down, which The Weather Channel shows during their tropical update. Any slowing down MAY allow for a farther turn to the north. That is why I won't feel safe with Ike until he passes 90 degrees west below 25 degrees north. Any closer and we begine to feel major impacts. RIGHT NOW that appears unlikely. Still, if Ike goes into Texas, coastal Louisiana will probably see tides 2-3 feet above normal/average along with wind gusts to 30 mph. No need to get nervous...just stay prepared in case Ike changes course.
Doing my physical therapy this morning, I over heard people talking about how they will NOT evacuate for another storm. We must solve the contra-flow problem with Mississippi & the re-entry problems along with Entergy's unreliability...otherwise, when folks leave next time, many will not come back.
36 comments:
Caveman just fell off his rock and rolled down the hill, Bob agreed with something Caveman said! LOL I think evenif Ike does slow down and does start to move a little more north doubt he will move to central Louisiana area, lucky if he makes it to TX/LA line.
This is my first comment, but I'm a dedicated "BOB BRECK BLOG READER" LOL!!
Stormzz and Caveman...you guys are hilarious. I read the comments just to see what those two have to say.
Prayer DOES work! I have been praying nonstop that Ike will leave us the heck alone and dangit I guess it's working! :0) I'm not ready to deal with another hurricane...we don't even have power at my house yet. Don't even get me started on Entergy!!
Keep up the great Blog Bob!! I don't know what we would do without you.
I doubt I'll come back to stay the next time I leave. I told a friend of when I got back after Gustav that if I have to leave again for Ike I'll come back with a U-Haul.
Between contra-flow, the exceedingly high cost of living here after Katrina, and the foolishness of Entergy, the stress and frustration doesn't justify the quality of life for a working class family.
What I saw of contra-flow in Mississippi it seemed that the roads were just overwhelmed this time. People were getting impatient and doing stupid things like not letting people over where the lanes merged. I recall evacuating for Katrina and everything went smoothly. This time there were more people evacuating and not even setting up contra-flow could accomodate them. I felt like contra-flow was actually counter-productive this time.
Maybe if they had set it up sooner it might have helped more.
bob, you make forecasting look so easy even a caveman could do it...thanks again for all your insite.
As a public official in Long Beach, Mississippi. We depend on Bob. Bob Breck is the Best!!
Well Caveman, as I said in my last post (Bob's last blog), I agree wholeheartedly with you! I see all of the models moving north around the ridge of high pressure, but it should hold...WE PRAY IT HOLDS!! I do expect to see that the NHC track will move slightly northward ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
Hey Cherie C. Caves...any relation to Caveman? LOL! I feel hurt and left out...there is no Sonny S Stormzes here!! ;-)
...and Caveman, don't worry, I'm not gone, just working in that private sector...sittin in my nice leather chair, and enjoying it ;) It's been a bit busy round the place lately...I will be glad for October as well!
Got to go back to the rockpile (a caveman, term, I think!!)
Ya'll have a good day, and don't worry too much. I have a good feeling about us, concerning this one.
Stormzz
I left Saturday morning, well in advance of contraflow...and anyone who did not have to work should have heeded the warning that a mandatory evacuation was being put into place. Don't WAIT to leave and sit in traffic, if you know it's coming LEAVE!
Gang: I just don't see the move toward Texas. I'm looking at the water vapor loop, and I "see" Ike moving into the Gulf then changing direction toward the Florida panhandle (making landfall near Pensacola). I'm new to all of this, mind you, and I bow down to all the meteorologists. Until it makes landfall, I will not let my guard down. Good luck!
Just looking back at the previous post and this post regarding major hurricanes in October. The first post said no major hurricanes in October but did not ref. LA. Second post clarified what Bob meant. However, granted that no MAJOR storm has crossed LA in October (since 1893), a storm does not necessarily have to be a major to be a serious problem. In 2002, we had Tropical Storm Isadore (late September), which put 8 feet of water in our neighborhood and put water in our house. Exactly one week later to the day on October 4th Hurricane Lili (Cat 1) made landfall in LA, giving us in Pass Christian 6 feet of water. For such minor storms, they both pushed a lot of water.
There is a reason why Hurricane Season lasts till 30 November and remember in 2005 we used up the names and started over with Alpha and went past the end of Hurricane Season.
I am not trying to scare anyone at all. I am simply saying that WE DON'T KNOW that there will be no more storms this year. We can hope there are no more.....
Yep I remember seeing all that water in your house afterwards... you fixed it up nicely afterwards though..
How big in size is Ike projected to be once he gets into the Gulf? I am just wondering if how far west and south will it have to go before it will have major impacts on La.
By the way, I am still in TN. We are staying here probably until the weekend.
Bob, a lot of people will not evacuate next time for various reasons. I think that is really unfortunate. I am for the theory better safe than sorry. Hence the reason why I am still have not returned.
Keep us posted. Thanks!
I remember that Sciencegal. If my memory is corect I spent most of Lilly on a sail boat in the Gulfport Harbor. I live in Diamondhead and work in The Pass... Oddly I fix personal computers as a side business also..
beau: I have seen your ad in the Gazebo Gazette I think. I am close to doing mine fulltime - Have a major web app development going on that I am hoping will just take me away from my JOB!
can't imagine being on a boat during a storm!
small world isn't it?
Ike's big track change is beginning to take place, Ike like most hurricanes tend to enlarge in the Gulf, nothing holding them back and Ike is getting ready to pass into the warm loop current. Ike will double in size I guess.
Oh yeah Ike has slowed from 13 mph to 11, doesn't sound like much but could make huge difference in a few days.
caveman, its actually moving at 10MPH.. not sure how much more that will matter, just thought Id share.
Will this slower speed effect the location of the nothern turn the models are calling for? The local guy here on the coast didn;t seem that concerned... Should have watched Bob!!
With Ike slowing down, any possibility of it coming in our direction, or has it traveled too far west to make that drastic change??
All right,
In my feeble, amateur, opinion, when I look at the current US conditions, it looks to me like the only High Pressure system is BEHIND the front??? Or do they just not show what is over the GOM? If so, as the LOW heads eastward, is Ike going to try to head to that Low??? Maybe even to us??? I'm not panicking, but I read these maps about as well as I read chest x-rays....and I'm not a radiologist. I'd like to hear from any of you...but especially Bob.
Thanks!
Doing the math from the 4pm and 7pm advisories, Ike moved .2N and .2W, or due NW not WNW as indicated from NHC, also appears to be several mph slower than NHC...
Hey I was watching the Weather Channel and I noticed that we have a very high chance of rain this weekend. Is this due to Ike?
I agree with the other posters that it doesn't look like this storm is heading as west as what they're calling it. I'd like to know at what point do we start taking action. For example, if by morning we can see that it's taking a turn for the Louisiana coastline, how many hours out would it put us before landfall (or approximately as I know you can't tell for sure) and would that give us enough time to act on an evacuation. I saw a model today that ran it right over us, and from what I understand about reading these things, if each dot is 12 hours in time (am I correct with this) it would have put landfall in approx 42-56 hours. I'm seriously considering beginning to pack up and ready to hop in the car in a moments notice. Is this just being paranoid and overly cautious? I'll be the first to admit I am extremely afraid of bad weather, but is there such a thing as being overly cautious?
Bob, thanks for all you do. When it comes to these storms, I always look to you first and foremost for reliable information and advice.
I wouldn't start sounding the alarm unless you start seeing a shift in the model consensus. Don't focus too much on one model, rather what the consensus is picking up. The speed of Ike concerns me because of the sharp North turn predicted after landfall. Slower speed may result in the North turn occurring farther to the East. I remain cautiously optimistic.
Thats my concern too Jeff. I am going to ignore the models and just watch the track... I do notice the eye is back with some cold cloud tops all around it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/sloop-avn.html
I have enjoyed reading these blogs for the last couple of days, and I am eager to hear from caveman and stormzz about the latest shifts......
Entergy's unreliability? Gustav caused severe damage to our infrastructure - more damage than the company has experienced in its existence. There are 11,000+ men and women working around the clock to restore power to approximately 850,000 customers in addition to having to sync New Orleans and Baton Rouge back to the country's power grid, work on the 190+ transmission lines that were down, get 200+ substations back online, replace blown transformers all over southeast Louisiana, and work on the infrastructure in Lafourche Parish that was completely demolished. Seriously. Rather than criticizing the hard work and the efforts of the people providing this service to you, why can't we just say a simple Thank You. Entergy wants your power restored just as much as you do - otherwise, they are not making money. Let's stop criticizing. This was a natural disaster. Amazing that we can only recall Katrina, which we actually thought we escaped the morning the storm passed...until the levees breached. Gustav was far different and hit a much wider territory than the Ninth Ward and Lakeview. Let's be grateful.
here ya go stormzz, you got a fan =]
i like cherie, enjoy coming to this blog to hear what you and caveman have to say. it brings humor to me in a time of anticipation and worry.
as for you Bob, i call you my "Homeboy" lol. you seem to keep the peace when everyone else is frantic and overreacting, even in a time when overreating is understandable. i was so miserable during Gustav because you were not on the channels available to me. i even started panicing at one point, and quickly visited your blog to calm myself down. my husband gets tired of me talking about you (i think he may be jealous lol). keep up the good work.
i'm in the CG, and since i'm at the bottom of the chain i often get news very late. so, as long as i'm tuned into you i have a sense of what to expect. i appreciate your hard work. although i missed you while you were gone, you indeed took a well deserved break. Thanks again!
Caveman has been busy drawing models on his cave walls with a bone and the models are not looking very good, Cavema is getting slighty worried that Ike esp since a stall has occured or about to will throw off the models and everyone's thinking and make even more of a northeast turn on the models Wed putting him closer to Houston for now. Caveman must go and collect berries, hunt wooley mammoth and stock up on water just incase. arrr
beau: would like to learn more about your business and what you do and maybe we can send some each other's way. I have a feeling there is a service you offer that we don't do much of.
Back to the weather:
Squalls out on the gulfstream, big storm coming soon - passed out in my hammock, and God I slept way past noon..... oh wasting away again in Margaritaville _ Decided to have a couple margaritas this evening after being out looking at ocmputers all evening.
I haven't honestly looked at Ike since I left work (yep my fed. job) at 4pm.
I see stormzz has a fan! Tired and just want to sleep but have another telecon from hades tomorrow...
Oh back to the weather.
Caveman: how much water did I have in my house?
Stormzz: Bonus question - clues to caveman's whereabouts. I think I have it narrowed down :-) Hard to hide in the swamp with virtual caves....
Caveman: Are your intitals TY? or ZA.
OH well, the large Hadron collider is going to get us tomorrow.
My brains left me after the second margarita.
Bob - hope you are well and home safe. Try to give us a little sanity huh?
:-)
While hunting wooley mammoth Caveman ran some numbers and feels by moring Ike could be near Cat 4 strength...
Intitals? why C M of course, If I remember correctly you had something like 3 ft I think back in 2000.
So, I just read Doc Master's blog over at weather underground. Can we be sure that this is a Texas storm? The slowing down worries me, but it still seems to be dropping down and staying steady west. I know Bob said not to breathe easy until it passes that 90 degree mark (N.O.). What is everyone else thinking? I guess I'm just nervous that this track is too good to be true. Still keeping my fingers crossed and praying for a weakening for Tx's sake..
-Marielle
I would Like to know if thinks this following theory is possile with Huricane Ike with High Pressure to the North East and an Upper level low to the soth west. Thank you and I will be expecting a reply.(Theory Not by me)
BAM- The Beta and Advection Model
The Beta and Advection Model is a baroclinic-dynamical track prediction model. It produces a forecast track by following a trajectory in the vertically averaged horizontal wind starting at the current storm location out to 120 hours. The trajectory is corrected to account for the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude, the so-called Beta effect. (Beta is the Greek letter frequently used in meteorological equations to represent the change in the Coriolis parameter with latitude.)
The figure shows how the conservation of absolute vorticity results in the formation of anticyclonic relative vorticity in the northeast quadrant of the storm, and the formation of cyclonic relative vorticity in the southwest quadrant of the storm: Diagram of absolute vorticity advection and relative vorticity formation in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone.. The result adds a component of motion to the northwest to the storm's trajectory.
Reference: Marks, D. G., 1992: The beta and advection model for hurricane track forecasting. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NMC- 70, 89 pp.
caveman: Buzzzz - wrong. 2002 Isadore. You really DON"T know me. So are you just stalker??? LOL jk
Had 6 inches in Isadore - pay attention to your previous posts :-)
Bob,
If IKE continues to slow down it should throw off the models. Now Theoreticly if it gets past 90W how it gets there later than forecasted couldnt the trough bring it back to the North East?
Sciencegal....give him a break, he lives in a cave afterall, lol!
;)
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