Ike has regain his earlier Cat. 4 strength (expected) but more importantly has slowed down from 16 mph to 12 mph. That 1) gives him more time to change course and 2) gives us more time to prepare. If you read Dr. Master's blog or the NHC discussion, they both indicate the very high probability that Ike will reach the central Gulf by next Wednesday. By then the steering currents will have collapsed again making for very slow and possibly erratic movement. Dr. Masters mentioned Elena in 1985 that made the curve to the north but then made a loop back to the Gulf coast. I'm hoping Ike could be like Rita in 2005 that followed Katrina but didn't turn north and headed to Port Authur. Neither storm, both major, did much damage to Metro N.O. The better solution would be for Ike to keep going WSW and cross Cuba then into the Yucatan before ending up in Mexico south of Brownsville. Bottom line...it's too soon to tell and should you be ready for Ike? Absolutely...no one has suggested otherwise. But to frighten and alarm folks so far ahead of time is to me irresponsible, uncompassionate and shows your lack of understanding regarding forecasting beyond 5 days. If you are new to this area and hurricane season,remember, we get advanced warning, (often 2-3+ days) unlike zero warning for earthquakes and 15-20 minutes at best for tornadoes.
Again, I understand the frail conditions of many of you mentally...myself included...as I feel I don't have another hurricane in me for this season. Ike is still over 2 days from reaching the Gulf. Some of you can't relax this weekend with him out there. PKSS Post Katrina Stress Syndrome. Do your best to stay calm and let's just keep watching Ike because that's all we can and need to do right now. Next update midday Sunday after church, which perhaps is not a bad place to visit this weekend.
26 comments:
Greetings to all from the Northeast. Hanna passed by very quickly today with very little rain and wind in Scranton, Pa. To be honest with you I'm honed in on Ike. I concur with Bob's suggestion of church. If Ike for some reason DOES hit New Orleans again I would seriously have to start thinking about the "hand of God" having a play in all of this. Who pissed him off down there? All kiddin' aside, I just wish Ike would stop by Cuba, have a cigar with Fidel, and dissapate. Everyone who can be affected is in our prayers...that goes without saying.
Bob, the steering factors seem to be 2 ridges of high pressure one large bermuda high, and one over the western gulf; what seems to be creating this alley over the northern gulf coast allowing these storms to track over us? It seems that Ike could almost follow the same track as Gustav; or maybe go in around Cameron parish which would not be a good thing and put us in the right front quadrant which would mean high tornado risk.
Hi Bob!
Thanks for perfectly expressed sentiments and analysis of the situation.
I apologize if anyone was offended by my defensive comments to Caveman's attacks. NEVER did I personally attack him,but none the less, these types of interaction are certainly not needed here when everyone's nerves are understandably on edge. I was here for Katrina, and lost so much as well, and none of us are the same from it.
Just know that I appreciate everyone's comments here, especially the humor that pops in! I won't be defending any more nonsense, and hope that you, Bob, will try to help keep the harassment to ANYONE to a minimum.
Thanks again for your comments tonight...
Ike needs to join up with Tina Turner and have a gig somewhere else! :)
Nite all
Stormzz
Caveman, there is no use in scaring people. Yes, everyone along the gulf coast should be prepared for Ike, but there is no use in getting everyone into a panic.
I live in Colorado now, since Katrina, but I lived on the Westbank for most of my life. My wife is from Barataria. Her folks still live there, as her dad is a shrimper. Most of the residents have learned to trust Bob Breck's judgement. When it comes to hurricanes everybody always ask,"What is Bob Breck saying". Bob only calls for evacuation when it is absolutely necessary. Predicting that Ike would enter the gulf is nothing to beat your chest about "caveman". Anyone that has lived on the gulf for any amount of time could have done that. It had a 50/50 of either going up the coast or in the gulf. What was necessary for it to go up the east coast didn't happen. So yeah it would likely keep it's present track and head for the gulf. Once it hits the gulf, it could go anywhere. Yeah, a probable track can be predicted based on the weather tools and conditions in the gulf.
With Ike being 5 or 6 days out it is to early to pin point where it is going. Thus, there is no need to get everybody into a panic. Yes, everyone on the gulf coast should be prepared, but not panic. Bob Breck is right telling everyone not to panic. Part of Bob's job is letting people know when to get out. He does that at the appropriate time, and in the appropriate manner. If you know anything about evacuation, then you that if people get in a panic its a disaster. Most of the people in Southeast Louisana are just starting to return to their homes, and Bob is not going to call for another evacuation if it is not absolutely necessary. He has been doing this for many many years and the people of Southeast Louisana have come to trust his judgement, and not some "caveman".
At 5 to 6 days out, only God knows the true destination. Stop inciting panic and let Bob do his job!
For weather buffs, here are a couple of sites that are not horrible to negotiate and have really amazing satellite images:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/
Just go to the site and click on the turquoise area, then "images and movies." From space, it's pretty impressive, eh?
Sciencegal mentioned how cool live recon data is, and it is...
Here is a site that anyone can get to at home:
http://www.hhrecon.com/recon/
The live updates are very hard to understand, but the Vortex messages give data that has been decoded and understood.
Hope that those who want to know more find this helpful!
Stormzz
Hi Bob,
I trust you because of your experience. I've been a computer professional (aka Geek) since 1979. A word of advice for you, please find and delete those comments that do not contribute to the discussion you have here. Every blog has it's share of vitriolic comments and they rarely if every constructive. Those folks can start their own blog if they wish. You don't need the aggravation and neither do we. That delete key is there for a reason ;-)
again, Thank You!
God Bless!
I think Bob's Job is reporting the weather... NOT calling evacuations! I believe that is the government officials job... If I remember right (and I do) Bob had to give kudos to the NHC for pegging Gustav's landfall 5 DAYS OUT! Yes! 5 Days out... The NHC was right one the money with Gustav in predicting his landfall... Thank God Gustav wasn't as big a storm as predicted, but unforseen conditions weakened him. If he would have come in like expected the devastation would have been catastrophic!!! I am from Lafourche Parish and we could have been decimated! I listen to the Parish officials because Bob Breck sure wont bail me out of jail if I defy them!
Yeah, I agree the bickering on here is too much..it's nice to see the comments so far this evening aren't too abrasive to one another.
Myself, and most the people I know love Bob because he is the ONLY local (or national) forecaster who isn't trying to scare the bejesus out of us to make a buck. He also obviously has a real love for this city, and for the people here.
As for Ike, all Tina Turner jokes aside (though I can hardly resist), my gut says that we're going to be ok. Now my gut could just be saying I'm hungry, but it was right when Katrina came along, and it was right when Gustav came along. So I'm gonna chill this weekend, get some reading done for school, and play with my cats.
*Note to everyone - my gut is not a certified weather forecaster, or a public official of any kind, so don't let it sway your decisions to evacuate or stay (Ha!)
Hi Bob, former St Edward's girl here, don't let the blog hecklers get to you. Amazing how they use the web to be 'nutters' as they say over here in the UK. Thanks for bringing common sense and reality to us and I have my family in NOLA reading your updates as well. We do appreciate your words and calm, collected recommendations. It's difficult for me to be so far away and not worry, frankly, it all makes me feel sick to my stomach. Keep up the great work. The blog hecklers are a side effect of the internet... It's sort of like when I used to work in customer service at a bottled water company in NOLA, you just open yourself to every sicko in the world when you put a phone number in the yellow pages, or in the case, on the net. Take care and know that the majority of us are keen to hear what you have to say. It means a lot to us...
Hi Bob and everyone! Just FYI, that was my first posting in Bob's Blog, in fact, that was my first posting in any blog. I usually am way too busy with my daily job(Unix/NT Admistrator) to even take the time to make comments on ANYTHING blog related! I was only inclined to leave one after my wife showing me how rediculous some people were being on here. She has been reading them off and on, since this last storm. She was reading Bob's comments on the storm, to get his perspective on it all, since we are in Colorado, and her parents in the Lafitte/Barataria area. We were very concerned, so wanted to keep informed about the matter. Thank God that they did not have any significant damage there. We pray for EVERYONE along the gulf and in the path of these storms, especially the hard working fisherman, that truly are affected the worst.
Please do not think I was contributing to any of the bickering on this blog...I just wanted to set that one guy straight. I will not say anything else towards that one guy or anyone...it was just that one. I think he should let Bob do his job! I will not add to any aggravation, and wasn't trying to. I just posted that one comment. Not 100% sure if some of you guys had me in mind when leaving your comments, but just wanted to explain if so.
Anyway, we are praying for Ike not to pose any threat to anyone, and just turn back! Whatever he decides to do is in God's hands, and all we can do is pray real hard that he will not cause any danger and just dissipate out there!
Bob, we appreciate your help with all of these storms! You are very dedicated to helping people and your years of experience has helped out a lot! Everyone needs to listen to YOU....you are the one that can be trusted and relied upon!
We will continue to check back to see what your perspective is with Ike. Keep up the GREAT job Bob!!
GOD BLESS EVERYONE!!!
- fishinguy & Ashley
PS. My daddy watches you EVERYDAY! He checks to see what the weather is going to be like, since he is a fisherman. He would always tell us as kids, "quiet..Bob Brecks on"! You were definitely a regular in our home:) You are quite a character, and don't ever lose that! GOD BLESS YOU AND YOUR FAMILY ALWAYS!!! - Ashley:)
Hello, Bob-I enjoy yout blog. I live in northern Virginia now, but I found your blog a week ago and quickly made it one of my favorites. I grew up in St. Charles Parish (after we moved from Concord St.) and went to Dominican. Thanks for your honest posts-I appreciate them.
Bob,
I appreciate your knowledge but after driving 20 hours to Atlanta am frustrated. At our home your word is the end all be all atleast with my husband and so it is frustrating when you FINALLY tell everyone to leave the day before a storm comes. This is not meant to be an attack but I do wonder why the other meterologists, (and one I know personally) can forecast the storm three days out and you seem to always wait till the last minute? Because of our areas fragile state right now after Gustav I believe it is even more reason to take Ike seriously. Many of our parishes are still without power, homes broken and debris everywhere. My family will NOT evacuate for Ike because mentally, emotionally, and financially I just
cannot. I would like to know though
the percentages of the storms strength at landfall and if there are any sheering elements or pressure systems that could affect the intensity such as in Gustav's case.
Bob,
Thank you for your cool head and words of wisdom. You are helping many of us stay safe and sane these days. Please don't stress yourself too much because we need your voice of reason. My family has great faith in you.
Kim Zimek
You know, Bob, I really watch you all the time and trust your weather insights. When you say that you have 2-3 days to get out when you need to, you are talking about N.O.. In Terrebonne Parish we have to bug out even sooner because of the fact that N.O. needs to move. If we wait for the 48 hour mark, even with contraflow, it presents problems with traffic. Gustav evac went smoothly, I think, because a lot of the lower parishes moved early. In my opinion, we have to move before N.O. moves. That decreases our window of opportunity for relaxing. The people in Terrebonne have a unique problem right now. No power in many places, though it is coming on slowly, sporadic communications, which means evac notice is going to be tricky, and low food supplies, which for those that stay is going to be problematic. I know I sound like a worry-wart, but just looking at possibilites from the 'below N.O.' perspective.
Bob, do keep up the good work that you do, I do appreciate your even handed, non-panicked analysis of these systems.
I will stick around here in Arlington for a few more days and watch your blog.
Thanks to all on this blog for keeping it interesting!
We evacuated to the Mobile AL area and where my family stayed had no cable/satellite TV service. I relied on information posted online and local TV in that market, which included the main network evening newscasts.
I saw national news networks distort some of the story about Gustav. I saw Charlie Gibson of ABC-TV put words in Mayor Nagin's mouth about when it's OK to return home and when schools would reopen. I saw Katie Couric doing a live stand-up at the end of the CBS Evening News in front of the overtopping floodwall, and feature past footage of Katrina's flooding of the city (distorting what was really going on, and showing it, showing it, showing it) and featuring Doug Brinkley, former resident and now a pundit, critical of the past.
What I came away with is two-fold: Yes it was awful back then, many ways and definitions of awful, and the impact of all that and decisions made back then haunt us today, yes, we already know all that. And despite that perhaps Gustav's evacuation and preparation processes were not perfect, overall it showed how much we've learned and implemented better processes now.
Take steps back. Take those ten slow calming breaths.
All this (re: Gustav) went better. Of course not a direct hit on New Orleans, thank God, and of course not the tidal surges and strength predicted, thank God. And of course mistakes were made, bound to happen and we have an opportunity to learn and implement better reforms from this experience. We mourn that it had to hit Louisiana at all, and yet are glad how utility crews and charities such as Salvation Army and Red Cross are coming to Louisiana's aid as fellow citizens would and always have. But overall this went better than three years ago. MUCH better than three years ago.
We are all blessed. And after all we went through with Katrina, we should take stock. Gustav wasn't Katrina. But what we learned from Katrina that helped us with Gustav: Priceless!
We're really blessed to have Bobby Jindal as our governor this time around, and that Gov. Jindal had the integrity to "be disinclined to acquiese to John McCain's request, means 'no'" (sorry, I like "Pirates of the Caribbean") about being a Vice-Presidential running mate. We need Jindal here, and Jindal knew that he was needed. I finally got to have a long-duration chance to listen to WWL-AM 870 Saturday morning to listen to Gov. Jindal's updating press conference (been so busy where evacuated to and once back home to tune in) and was blown away how on top of things he was without any sign of wavering in his voice or manner or wording. He was precise, in command of facts, knew where the resources were and weren't and how to get the resources, period, no matter what it took. He always erred towards wording where glasses were half full rather than half empty, finding optimistic progressive ways of phrasing things.
This alone is MUCH better than three years ago!
So in church services this morning I will offer up what Pollyanna (another Disney reference) suggests: Finding the "glad" even in hardship and even with the possibilities of Ike around the corner.
I find it heartening and a big relief of anxiety that the 7 am CDT NHC reports and on Weather Underground.com show a much more westerly track for Ike. Not wishing our West Louisiana and Texas fellow Gulf Coast residents harm, I hope Ike diminishes before landfall and has much, much minimal impact. None of us in this part of the US wants, or needs, further losses of any kind or the anxiety. So that is my prayer, too, today in church.
I'd like Ike to take a hike!
Trying to Reason with Hurricane Season as Jimmy Buffet puts it....
Why do we evacuate for storms today? Seems when I was a child we never left. We never left for Camille or Betsy...Today we would run if such storms hit, which I do...Life is too precious and things can be replaced.
Do we evacuate because...
- Hurricanes are stronger because of so called global warming or are we just in a violent period for storms.
- Computer Models have played out scenarios of what a catastrophic storm could do to our city...and is it because computer models now more accurately predict where storm will go....ah except all have that cone....
- Is it because our coastline is dissappearing and the buffer the coastline once provided is gone?
- Is it because it is now politically correct to listen to our government official who order us to leave>
- Are we just wiser people today?
- Is it the Media who does inform but tends to scare us....oh lets face it....its only 30 day to Hurricane season...its only 5 days to hurricane season....like there is a storm thats going to hit us June 1st....
- Were we more nieve to underestimate mother nature back when and not leave...are we more educated now...
I guess my biggest pet peave is that we see reporters in harms way getting the story, showing the wind blow and the rain falling, plus government officials ride the storm out while we have to leave...is it not dangerous for you too?
Just some thoughts to ponder....and as Buffet says....I knew I could use a Bloody Mary, so I stumpled next to the Bar....
Heading to the game....Go SAINTS>>>woohoooo
BSB
Bob, as a former resident of Metairie and one whose family still lives there, I really appreciate being able to read your blog and watch Channel 8's reports during hurricane season. I trust your insight and consider you the foremost authority in the New Orleans area when it comes to hurricanes!
I didn't read the comment that prompted your comment on other weather events with little or no warning, but have one of my own: We live in Springfield Missouri, and have endured two winters of ice storms now that leave me wishing I was still home facing hurricanes! In January 2007 three waves of ice came through and devastate an eight-county (read parish) area, destroying thousands of trees and costing millions to restore power and clean up the debris. My home was without electricity for eleven days...well, five days, because we spent $700 on a generator after the first five so we could stop camping out in the one room we were trying to heat with a small propane heater. Three of these days we had sub-zero temps outside, then it warmed up into the teens and twenties! We had a few days of warning but no one predicted the intensity of the storms that coated trees and power lines with ice. So there are worse things than hurricanes!
OleMissSweetie,
Bob isn't the one that you should be listening to about evacuations. Bob can suggest that you evacuate if you live in low lying areas and areas that might be affected by storm surge, but evacuations calls are really left up to local government officials of each parish/county or state. If there is talk of an evacuation order in your parish, leave then to avoid spending so much time on the road. I live on the MS Gulf Coast and at 10p.m. Saturday evening there was a steady stream of traffic of people on I-10 that were leaving because they knew that mandatory evacuations started the next morning. I too live in a low lying area, just down the street from a marina and a bayou behind me and my things were packed Friday evening because we knew that there mandatory evacuations began Sunday morning at 7 a.m. Poor planning and waiting until the last minute is what will get you in that predicament.
Mornin ya'll! Goooooo Saints!!! :)
Hoping that we're all keepin the folks down in the islands in our prayers. We know better than anyone that it's so needed after a crisis...
Bob, lots of people have asked me about intensification, and "Why Gustave did not strengthen after crossing the warm loop eddy " in the Gulf after leaving Cuba. Do you know what was learned from the 60 buoys that were dropped, and talk a little about what impact that could have on IKE?
I believe that sheer to Gustav's north kept him from strengthening...so it's several factors. When does that loop eddy become important, and can it affect IKE this time?
Have a great day to all, and hope that today, the Saints smile upon us!
Stormzz
I think that your site is wonderful. These bloggers that are becoming obstinate and idiotic need to get a life. Keep on with your "personal touch". You are as well liked as Nash was when I was a child. You are especially a comfort when we are evacuated away from home.
Thanks Bob............
Everybody knows about the Hurricane Catagory Scale which measures the power of hurricanes. But nobody really knows what all those types of catagories of hurricanes do to COWS. So here is the MOOJITA Scale...
M0 Hurricane - Cows in an open field are spun around parallel to the wind flow and become mildly annoyed.
M1 Hurricane - Cows are tipped over and can't get up.
M2 Hurricane - Cows begin rolling with the wind.
M3 Hurricane - Cows tumble and bounce.
M4 Hurricane - Cows are AIRBORN.
M5 Hurriance - S T E A K ! ! !
For informational purpose only not to "scare" people you can go to the site below:
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/weather/
On the left click on the GFDL or HWRF model animations which are lettered in RED, then go up to the top and scroll your cursor across the BLUE numbers (hours) and you can watch the animation of the different models you hear about but only see the lines given for.. etc.
I'd just like to say again how important your guidance was, Bob, during Gustav, and how much we are counting on you again. Across the board all of my friends in N.O. and here in MS say they count on YOU for their storm info. Thanks so much for your responsible reactions to these events.
Thank you Bob for your help and guidance through these Hurricane times. We tuned in to Fox 8 last night to see an update but you were not on so we tuned out. You are a voice of reason like Nash Roberts when he was still on the air. I have friends from the UK to China that tune into your blog to keep track of the weather.
You are appreciated. I already have reservations but thinking if we have to evacuate to make a Hurrication out of it this time and head to Disney with the kids.
Too much stress and too much money wasted evacuating. Next time we'll put it to good use and maybe go somewhere fun. Except that when there is damage we need to come back ASAP to handle it. We had a tree on our house for Gustav and were able to tend to it immediately, something we wouldn't have been able to do if we were 10 hours away. We went to Hattiesburg which was far enough yet close enough for Gustav.
Sorry, I'm rambling. Thanks again for all you do.
As much as some people don't/didn't like it, I must commend you for not being one of the weather casters who were telling us "We're all going to die!" from the minute there was a chance Gustav would be in the Gulf. You told us to be prepared, but don't think the worst just yet. When it was obvious that we should get out, you told us to do so, but do it calmly. I commend and thank you for that.
As for those who think you should know where hurricanes are going to head from the get go, I want to remind them that Mother Nature isn't a railroad. There is no set track that everything needs to stick to at all times. Things could easily change within 1 hour or even 10 minutes. You predict to the best of your ability and that's all we can and should ask of you.
I like that "Mother Nature isn't a railroad." Cool...:)
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