Nothing has changed from last night when I saw on the satellite loop (not just from the 10 PM coords) that Ike was making a more westward turn as predicted. He continues on that motion picking up speed (very good) and NHC hasn't changed their landfall focusing between Freeport & Galveston. If I lived in Texas, what would I do? 1) know my elevation...anything 25+ feet and the water can't get me from storm surge. 2) Power will go out...do I want to live without power for several days? 3) Do I have enough food/water for 3-5 days? If you answer no to those questions, I'd be leaving for friends either to the SW or way east. Not eveyone needs to evacuate Houston as we saw last time. Way more died trying to leave than in the storm. Use common sense.
Locally here we will see winds 20-30 mph with higher gusts in squalls. Maybe 1-3" of rainfall spread out over time should be no big deal. Down along the coast, it will be much worse and those folks should already have evacuated to inside the levee protection system. This is a much larger storm than Gustav but he will be much farther away from us. Still don't be surprised by the wind gusts that already have reached 51 mph at Belle Chasse this morning. Next updat after noon.
30 comments:
I'm glad it's not coming to New Orleans, but I do feel for the people in Houston. I just hope my power comes on before the storms hits!!
I'm not sure my previous comment went through, so I apologize if I'm repeating myself. Why did they extend a "hurricane warning" all the way east to Morgan City? I was really surprised by that. And why does the NHC talk about forecast errors "48 hours out"...I can see forecast errors at 5 days, but shouldn't they have the path nailed down for 2 days from now?
I still won't rest easy til it's made it final landfall. Thanks for the update
Look at some of the graphics on the net and you will see surge effects stretching much farther into LA than Morgan City.
I believe the blog wunderground has a good map.
Bob, thanks for all you do for the people in the New Orleans area. You do a great job of keeping us all informed. We watch you faithfully, and trust your forecasts. My daughter is even hooked on you. She has "Bob and Friends" plugged in her cell phone. She's at school in Hammond, and calls your weather phone daily.
We ARE already getting those high gusts over here in Belle Chasse!
i just wanted to say thanks for being the calm when everyone else insists on chaos. i am sure we all appreciate the fact that you bring in all scenarios of the storms instead of dwelling on the grim and bleek ones. you are the only weather person i trust and will always continue to watch your weather broadcasts. much appreicated!
Caveman has a question for Bob. On TV they keep mentioning the big hurricane I believe occured 1900 in Texas that killed 8000 people and showing it's track that it took from when it first formed etc. and comparing it to Ike. Now how can they tell what track it took when back in 1900 we did not have radar and sats in space etc like we do today to track these storms and measure strenghts?
Caveman thinks Bob is the best...
I'm amazed at how well organized Texas has been with evacuation - guess they have learned from us!
I think that where we messed up here, is lack of thought with re-entry. Any thoughts Bob? Just seems, that grocery /hospital/gas station workers would be allowed back PRIOR to the people, because no food was available for days.
In N.O. they weren't even sure HOW to get the people organized and back on busses.
Get them out, but did we think of coming home?
What ya'll thinking?
Stormz
ps...soooo glad that IKE is still heading that way...but, Bob, can you speak of flooding in the rivers on the North Shore, if folks can expect such again? Thanks...
Bob I know nothing about models but I noticed one GDFL model running Ike MIGHTY close. How accurate is this one, or would you just consider it one of many opinions?
Bob, why in the past nobody would "leave" unless you lived on the coast for a storm? My parents and grandparents either lived in Metairie or New Orleans forever and never would get out of dodge. I'm 39 and never left when I was a kid. Are the storms stronger? levees weaker? Been a fan since the 5th grade around 1979 when you released a weather balloon at St Louis King of France in Bucktown! lol
Over here at the CG station in Bucktown we've noticed a significant rise in the lake's water levels, which has flooded a good portion of our back parking area. Pretty strong winds too
WoW i think the loop current did work this thing is big and if the wind can get up with the size and pressure of Ike THIS WILL BE A WHOPPER.It feels weird with a storm this big ,this close, to metairie and there is no evack going on and everybody going nuts. Im glad nobody jumped the gun on this one. Good job to all that has to make that call.
This is to early to discuss, but...While Invest 91 is out in the Atlantic, I was wondering if there are any cold fronts far north that would be coming our way in the possible next two weeks?
Yeah, I know this is crazy to ask, but after Katrina, I am now crazy.
Hi, Bob. Here from the Bay St. Louis-Pass Christian area. I have a question regarding the surge. It is already getting very bad here in Henderson Point, Hwy 603, and 90. The water is getting to lower lvls of home in henederson and on the roads here and 603..they are about to shut down 603 due to high water. It's already getting to levels that of Gustav and the storm is not even coming here. I'm concerned about losing more hours of work due to not being able to get there. When do you see the waters receding here and do you expect the waters to rise here even more friday through saturday. Thanks for everything you do, BOB
MsItalian.. We had to shut down our job sites in the Pass today because of the water covering a lot of the roads leading into the Pass. Espy was the only way in or out in Gustav. I wonder if tomorrow will be the same here on the coast?
Bob it looks like lke is starting to take a north turn do you see this?
I too am glad we don't have to deal with another hurricane so soon but do feel for the people of Texas.
Bob, is there any chance that this thing could change direction at the last minute and do damage to Lake Charles or even more East?
Nashette
Hi Bob...Ike is once again not behaving, and he is slightly north of the NHC points. Will be interesting to see if they move their track slightly northward.
S.B.B....if I may, hurricane warning means that you are likely to experience hurricane force winds within the next 24 hours. Because Morgan City is so close to the coast, and because this storm is so very large (HUGE, in fact) with tropical force winds extending out some 115 miles....one MAY experience winds of a minimal hurricane force (74 miles per hour). It DOES NOT mean that they WILL occur, but only that the possibility exists.
So, no need to worry, the NHC is just trying to alert the people along the coast to be on guard for possible nasty weather.
Hope I helped! You can get good information on Wunderground.com under "Tropical" and "Hurricane FAQ" or Wikipedia...they will give you MORE info than you ever wanted to know, lol!
Hope IKE keeps chugging past 90 degrees!!
Ya'll have a nice evening..
Stormzz
I am not trying to scare anyone but why isn't this thing going straight west and why does it seam to be heading more north then west, it still has yet to cross 90 degrees yet. Could this shoot straight north or more east of the track.If this does bob will we have enough time?
welcome back caveman Bob is this thing going to turn
Caveman was out for a little while so he could boulder up his cave, I believe based on everything going on with the trough, Ike slow down on Wed, etc. the science part of it are looking still to a landfall pretty dang close to TX/LA line. Just a little slow down days out and a jog to the north make a HUGE difference at landfall.
Caveman, nice to see you survived the fire, or your production of it!! You have fans dude...:)
I agree(did I say that?) with Caveman...that the storm will likely make landfall a bit north of the projected path. The reason being is the subtropical Bermuda High which extends just to the western edge of Louisiana. The storm is kept to our south by this ridge, but then the storm creeps around the weakness in the atmosphere to the west of the ridge and moves more north. That weakness appears to be just about the TX/LA border...
BUT, given the current motion of IKE and the fact that he doesn't turn on a dime, he'll gracefully slide around the high into Texas...
Bob, I'm amazed at the huge size of Ike and how far out his tropical force winds extend. Any historical comparisons for us?
Thanks...
I missed you, Caveman! Just don't start throwing those boulders! :)
Stormzz
Man, I wish they would give you a few minutes more at the beginnning of your forecast, because there is so much that we want to know.Thanks goodness you are on at 5:30 as well. Almost past ninety degrees. It's getting better all the time...Thanks Bob :)
Feel bad for Texas for what they are about to go through, but most of us were not up to going through another storm after Gustav.
Let's just pray that Ike looses some of its steam and for our Texas neighbors' safety.
Cold fronts, come on down!!!!
Caveman never knew what it was like to have electricity, but Lake Charles and areas to the west will most likely loose power for a few day to a week, Baton Rouge, New Orleans and surrounding areas can prob expect to have some areas loose power due to the many trees that Gustav put the hurt on just waiting to fall along with branches just waiting for a good wind to knock them down on the newly replaced lines.
Bob ROCKS!!
Anxiously awaiting the next update. Speaking of which, can anyone fill me in on what Bob says at 9? I'm currenty en route to enterprise, al and can't watch the news. Bob, i will miss you this weekend lol thank goodness for your blog or else i'd go nuts!
Hello Bob, first let me say you are my favorite, have been watching you ever since I can remember. Down here in Houma the winds are getting pretty strong and the water is rising. We don't have cable, only have electricity on occasion, have no parish leadership, have no idea what is going on other than occasional ability to log on to the internet. But truly the internet just allows us to see maps and gives us no explanation or in my case reassurance! Please update us as to current tract in basic english. I keep reading it may come in closer to the La border. Rita took that path and did a real number on Houma, if this thing is taking that route I need to get my family closer inland just to be on the safe side. Rita was our Katrina in Houma... Please advise those of us in NO TV LAND. Thanks!
Gilbert, Glad you noticed Invest 91... the models have it going everywhere. Sure hope it fizzles out!!! Have a safe day everyone tomorrow, and stay dry!
Well,thank God New Orleans was spared after getting hit by Gustav. My memory was jogged when I looked at the tracking map and saw good ol' San Antonio, Texas. The last time I was there was back in the fall of 1976 at Lackland Air Force base for basic training. Just as I did for everyone down in the New Orleans area during Gustav...I will break out the rosary I recieved from Benedict XVI and pray for the people on the Texas coast.
Bob...Been watching you since I was a youngster! I noticed even this morning that some of the models were saying that Ike would be a Cat 4 at landfall. Now they are saying a Cat 2 at landfall. I have read your blog saying that predicting intensity is still very hard, but I have two questions: 1)Why does it seem that they usually error on the storm being stronger than it really is? I can't remember hearing a storm being forcast as landing as a Cat 1 and it really being a Cat 3. Usually It's the other way around. 2) What needs to happen in order for you guys to better predict intensity more accurately? I know you are busy and have lots of questions to answer, so thank you ahead of time!
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