Satellite loops tonight clearly show an organizing hurricane. Since it is entering the loop current, Ike may undergo rapid intensification to a Cat. 3 or 4 by early Wednesday. He did jog briefly to the north but is back moving to the west again but very slowly at much less than 9 mph. That gives me some concern, but a talk with NHC tonight and they feel VERY confident Ike will start to increase forward speed tomorrow. He'd better since a slower motion gives a strong trough, currently over the Rockies, time to turn Ike much sooner to the north than the current NHC track forecast. RIGHT NOW, the news continues good for Louisiana but bad for Texas. We'll be watching for any turn toward Louisiana during the next 1-2 days, but since the forward speed is so slow, we'll have time to react IF we need to and right now we don't.
My comments about Entergy echoed the Governor. SE Louisiana is too vulnerable to be knocked out for days when we are the nation's energy supplier(25%) for oil & natural gas. It reflected on current policy NOT on any of the workers. We all know the workers are doing the best they can. To not be critical of Entergy would be like saying you can't knock the Corps of Engineers after Katrina. Just like I pointed out the problem with Mississippi & contra flow on I-10. We have some issues to solve and if we don't change anything, we'll see the same troubles next time. "Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it". We have problems...let's find solutions.
20 comments:
thanks Bob! i sure hope it speeds up soon and keeps heading west. and i pray for texas that Ike will weaken considerably before landfall in the US. noone needs this storm, not just us
Bob,
If IKE continues to slow down it should throw off the models. Now Theoreticly if it gets past 90W how it gets there later than forecasted couldnt the trough bring it back to the North East?
I'm from Ms Gulf Coast and really enjoy your forcasts...they are very detailed and u just make weather fun..even when it is bad. I found tracking the storm through the weather channel to be dull and mundane..My question is why do they not go into the many scenarios that u do..they just seem like they are reading the teleprompters and not doing any real meteorology..they don't break much down..in fact our own local weathermen in MS do the same..what seperates you from them..I've been wanting to ask u this for a while..thanks for your great work!!
MSItalian, I too find the weather channel...BORING...Too generic! Its maybe dull because people just are hitting their remote and once they get their forecast, its off to another station...maybe they have to consider all types of mentalities too...and have to simplify it...
They do seem to pick up their coverage of Hurricanes when it nears land, but I found it strange a few days ago, they had 3 storms to present and it was like they were quick to get it presented and over with....like they had to squeeze it in within a time frame of less than 5 minutes....and I thought the coverage was poor. Especially for people like us who are concerned where these storms go.
So I stick with this local guy....his name is something like Breck....you may have heard of him...
Lets hope Ike stays away....he just seems to be moving more NW than WNW....and with his slower movement, it concerns me.
MSItalian, What separates Bob Breck from all other weather reporters is that this:
1) Bob sees his viewers as human beings not just a faceless crowd or numbers for the rating charts,
2) Bob realizes that not all of his viewers have gone to meteorology school, so the information needs to be explained in a manner to which the average person can understand it,
3) Bob has many years of not just reading and interpreting data, but also many years of living in this area so he understands the weather and the concerns of the people (as well as having good instinct), and most importantly:
4) Bob actually cares about the people as well as actually has a passion for the work he does. It is not just a job to Bob. Everyone else just reads the teleprompter because it is their job-- Bob, on the other hand has a passion for what he does, and cares about each and every one of us, regardless if we are his viewers or if we watch other stations.
Bob understands weather and can interpret the data, whereas the others just report what they are told by those who interpret data. There truly is none like Bob in all of the south. I moved from Pennsylvania to Louisiana on Sept. 29 2002- the day Isadore was hitting but in Pennsylvania (born and raised there- spent 31 years there) we had a guy named Tom Clark who was the Bob Breck of the north-- Tom Clark understands Noreasters, and blizzard patterns like Bob knows the tropical patterns and hurricanes. Every area has their own special Bob Breck, but I am glad to know that we have the original :-) Oh, and I now call the New Orleans area my home and am proud to do so, and will rebuild after every storm and never plan on moving from this area.
MSItalian I AGREE 100% about the local MS Gulf Coast weather team. I wonder if they will stop reading from the NWS website and tell me something. Atleast cable still carried FOX8!!!
I agree about the Weather Channel. They hardly tell you anything. It's exactly like the poster said; they seem to want to make their presentation, mostly say that "it's going to be a bad one..." and then be done with it. They seem never elaborate too much on the track forecast, which is key to me. Someone from here would want to know why a storm is heading where it's heading or where it might be heading under such-and-such conditions and so be able to know what to look for. The opposite end of that, however, are the many weather blogs where this morbid hope for a major storm to develop and then come this way seems to be fairly present (either, I figure, for these people to get to see what exactly would transpire or, maybe more significant, so that they can pretend that they're public officials or something like that and get the early jump on the bandwagon to urge evacuation. And not to go too far on a rant but I feel strongly that evacuation is a personal decision and that actual public officials should be the only people telling me whether and when to get out and thus as informative as these sites can be they're also very irritating in that regard).
Most of the people complaining about the power outages are the same ones that had their own over grown/rotted tree fall on a line or had their ownd dead branchs fall onto lines etc.
Caveman has never had electricity, Caveman is still trying to make fire.
Caveman...yes we did have a tree fall on our line and rip it straight out of our house. Entergy came and turned on our subdivision but didn't bother to fix our line. To be quite honest, I think they have forgotten about us. We have spent over 300$ in gas to run our generator...it's getting old REALLY quickly. I am glad that you are learning to make fire!! LOL!
I saw where somebody asked if I was related to Caveman..No, I'm not. I tried to get my husband a personalized license plate that said CAVEMAN, but it was already taken. grrr...
I have to say, the whole hurricane prediction system can be very frustrating and misleading to the average person. If New Orleans is out of the "cone of error" and there is some event that can bring it to New Orleans, then shouldn't we be in the cone of error?
If there is a situation where it could come here, why do none of the models show this? I look at the wind speed probabilities and we're 0% for hurricane and 50-knot winds. But I guess there IS a chance it could happen. So why say 0%?
I really wish they had a map of everywhere this thing could possibly hit under all circumstances, and the percentage chance of it happening. I thought that's what the cone of error and the wind speed probabilities was- but I guess not?
With THOUSANDS of trees down not counting the many branches lucky it is not going to take a month to get power. Entergy does not have 15,000 linesman on standby 24/7 on the payroll, this was a natural disaster. Underground utilities would help but then homeowners would not want to see a huge price increase to pay for the expensive upgrades IF they can even be done in many areas. Unless you are super hairy with rotten teeth I don't think we are related.
Some models Caveman came up with just a few have Ike making a major turn to the north in 24-48 hours. Lake Charles MAY be in trouble.
Cone of error is based on ALL the data that is present at the time the cone comes out, "what ifs" are not part of the cone. Cone of error is just a somewhat educated guess. 3 days out pretty good idea, 5 days you not good. In few years you will see a 7 day cone of error because the 3 day one is getting good and the 5 day is improving. Doesn't really matter anyways, anyone living in and around the Gulf should be prepared anyway for hurricane season.
Caveman:
Yes, I do understand that. But what-ifs are important aren't they? There are only so many variables that can be played with in reality? I mean why say your cone of error is 300 miles when you know the thing could hit more than 300 miles from your projections?
So while I know no one KNOWS if the thing will slow or move... it would be nice to have an overlay that gives a percentage prediction for as many what if's as possible. What are the chances of it hitting the Florida's panhandle? 1%? New Orleans? 2%? 5%? 0.01%?
A lot of people see that cone of error and think that's it. There is no chance of it hitting us here, because the NHC is saying the worst north they could possibly off would be the Texas/LA border.
Here is an excellent site to track Ike: myfoxhurricane.com. Bob, can you tell me the probability in % that Ike comes close to us. Thanks!
The cone of error is NOT fixed it changes sometimes many times a day, based on the data that is available at that time. Read the NHC dicussions.
Some Clip seriesof models are not showing landfall in goold ole sweet home _____. As the hours tick by Caveman sees more of a northerly landfall of between Houston and Lake Charles.
Caveman has to go out and finish gathering berries just incase.
Wow...susie s. stormzz, I am honored....
Can we get a billy b. breckkkk? lolol
Ya'll crack me up!
I think that Entergy HAS to do a better job...I have several friends associated with the oil industry along the river in Baton Rouge and Laplace....the movement of oil has virtually stopped.....due to lack of power. NOT to mention, the Loop is out in the Gulf....being worked on while we speak!
Nobody wants to hear this, but emergency response teams, gas/oil industry needs to be amongst the FIRST to come back on line, because without them, the rest of us are in trouble.
I also think that services stunk this time. So many lost food, and only qualify for food stamps if below the poverty line. There is NO financial assistance for the average family that REGARDLESS of their income, have a need created because of this storm. It's too bad...
Oh, and the weatherchannel...hey, Cantori should bring up the ratings, eh?
lol.....Doesn't everyone listen to weather channel music in their cars? WHAT? NO? ;)
I see where Ike is headed, and am looking at all of the guidances...and ok, but how come I just don't 100% trust that Ike is going to behave? What's the percent that Ike can hit us, give CURRENT info? It's .00002%.
...But, should he change directions because that High doesn't strengthen, well.....we'll see. Stormzzzzzzzz isn't getting so many zzzzz knowing he's a tricky fellow and still out there...
KEEP GOING IKE!! ...and for those who wonder, yes, I am worried for those in Texas. I have friends in the area so it hits closer to home than I'd like.
Have a great day....back to numberzzzz. Stormzz
Looking at the Satellite here, it does look like Ike had a well defined eye early in the satelitte loop and as it progressed the eye disappeared. Is windshear occuring with Ike or is it maybe like Gustav some dry air is funneling into it???....or is it going thru a eye replacement cycle?
Isn't Ike in the warm loop current now and should be exploding into a major hurricane?
I don't know, it still looks like Ike's moving more north than west....I did see the track that had it moving more north the turning more to the west due to the high pressure over the Gulf...so maybe this is expected....
I am also thinking with the Weather Channel that maybe these people in front of the camera are not meteorologist....I mean Don Westbrook wasn't a one and he did the weather...so they would not be able to provide such detailed analysis of these storms.
Caveman, beware of the bears when you pick up your berries. I would suggest you to sing when you approach a bush. Stormzz, I guess with such a low probability, I am taking out my hurricane panels today. I feel like I am living in a cave!!!
Bourbon Street Blues...looks like a bit of drier air out ahead of Ike, and this is surely not helping his situation...but yes, he did go over a warm eddy...but like Gustav, it's a bit interesting that he isn't intensifying quickly.
I'm ever watching...I had the "jog mongers" lol...but the last couple of frames on satellite DOES appear to be moving northward....but don't get excited, Ike is expected to do what he's told and move westward!! I'm waitin' IKE!!!
Should we all move to caves? I'm enjoying the blue skies...
...but even cavemen come out an pick berries. I have to say, though...I'm really impressed over the fire. *I* can't start fires!! :)
See ya'll later...
Stormzz
OOps, forgot BSB...(in a rush, sorry) but about 20 knts shear in front of Ike as well. He's not got the best situation for intensifying...but I don't think he's a push over either!
Stormzz
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