Let's chill out gang. Ike won't even reach the Gulf until late Monday or early on Tuesday...then it's 2-3 days before landfall making that next Thursday or Friday. Could we have another trough over the eastern states by then that could turn the storm to our east? Absolutely. Could we see the Atlantic Ridge build westward keeping Ike from turning northward and go into south Texas? Absolutely. Could Ike end up across the mountains of eastern Cuba and lose his structure and strength? Absolutely. I could go on and on...but why? Do I serve a useful purpose by trying to scare people long before they need to be? Absolutely not. So, I will not hype this storm as it may never affect New Orleans. We'll look at him each day and see if the computer models are reality regarding his track. Remember, NHC nailed the TRACK of Gustav, but they were way off regarding his intensity. Let's hope their intensity forecast for Ike is wrong too.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Ike Stays Cat. 3...
Despite a NE shear of 20-25 knots, Ike continues to hang on as a weak Cat. 3 storm tonight. Satellite loops are not as impressive as 24 hours ago, but NHC indicates as Ike moves westward, the shear will weaken and Ike should grow back to a Cat. 4 on Sunday. The big question is..."will Ike threaten us?" There are many out there wanting you to believe that they have the skill to predict a landfall beyond 5 days. I think one of our bloggers said it best...if you're that good, why aren't you working at the NHC? To quote Dr. Masters..." Texas to the Florida coast" means he can't be wrong since that includes everyone along the U.S. Gulf coast. I see little value in those kinds of "predictions". I have no clue where Ike will go since any U.S. landfall (except FLA) is 7 days away. Chris Rose in the Times-Pic. said it best..."the cone of uncertainty should be called the cone of cluelessness".
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New info coming in along with some new runs of long range models are not looking good for central gulf coast, big surpise coming Saturday or early Sunday on track changes. NHC tends so be quite on these things. I would go out fill up on gas get items needed (should already have these) etc. and hope Caveman is wrong, and if Caveman is wrong no big deal you will use the gas anyway etc. Could be a big problem with not as many leaving this time if we needed to. Agree totally with you Bob but also think people should be made aware of what IS unfolding. Hurricanes are unpredictable and people should give thought to the worst case senarios, example Ike has weaken'd very little today and did not go down to a Cat 1 but remained a Cat 3 and about to get stronger.
Caveman must leave to try and make fire and cook his wooley mammoth.
Bob tell the people that will be waiting in miles and miles of traffic that it's too early to be waiting. Or tell the people in any of the southern parishes that have been devasted that it's too early to worry about it. You are being more "op-edish" than factual. You take criticism like a kid takes castor oil. Why not just tell people to buy a lottery ticket, quit work and wait for the check to arrive. You don't get paid to be clueless, and you don't get paid to calm people's fears. Everybody needs to prepare and if they all do it at the same time, then we have problems.
This question is mainly for Bob, but I invite others to comment. I am visiting family in Tennessee. My husband had to get back to work shortly after Gustav passed and I stayed behind as we have a almost 2 year old daughter and did not want to bring her back to the conditions we were warned about. My daughter and I have used the past three days as a mini hurrication, if you will.
Well, hubby is driving up tonight, spending the weekend and will leave Sunday and I planned to go with him. Now seeing Ike's 5 day forecast, I wonder if I should hang here into next week.
Bob, I know you cannot answer this question, but just wanted your input. I would hate to return home only to have to evacuate again. This is the first time we have had to evacuate since our daughter was born and believe me last week was no picnic for either of us. I just cannot do this to her again.
shanz: such is life in southern Louisiana. Evacuation is part of living here.
Obviously she wasnt asking if evacuation is a part of living here,
She was asking if she should stay in tennessee until ike passes, FOR HER BABYS SAKE.
shanz - if I were you, and could afford to stay there, I would stay away until Ike has passed. this way you know you don't have to go through evacuating with your child again. If the storm goes elsewhere, then you've just had a little more extended "hurrication". FYI - I live in the Thibodaux area, and although my home now has power, very little else in town has power, so I will most likely not return yet with my children.
Caveman,
I would really like to know where you got your education as a meterologist. You aways seem to think you know more than everyone else. Bob is NOT saying that we should not be watching to see what "is unfolding". He's just saying there is no reason to start a hysterical panic. I've read some of your blogs...couldn't read them all because they really began to get on my last nerve. I do think the only reason you are on here is to stir up mess and try to cause panic in everyone. CHILL!!!!! Yes, we're all on edge with hurricanes. Unfortunately, that goes with the territory of living in SW LA. or anywhere on the Gulf Coast. Bob is the most reliable meterologist in this area, as a matter of fact in any area that I've lived in.....LET THE MAN DO HIS JOB.
Bob, or anyone else,
Where can I find these articles by Dr. Master? I'm interested in reading them.
hey im a marrero resedent that has a wife & a 65 yr old mother & stepfather (srry if theres mispellings my monitor suffered a surge & cant see full screen clear) i think mr brek did an awsome job at predicting the storms & ill trust him & i said the same thing, lets wait & see.
one thing i have noticed tho. louisiana seems to be the nations newest reality show durring hurricaine season as the world watches to see how we panic for every disturbance. im glad to have someone like mr brek to help people stay calm. panicing causes mistakes. we need to keep a calm head about ourselves. levees held unlike the zepplin song & durring katrina. we try to be as prepaired as we can, sometimes its enough sometimes its not. but our attempts never go unnoticed since katrina. if we get harrassed for being from the city, kicked out for our choice of marrage or our love of music that others dont understand, the neworleans area survives & comes back & as we come back from gustav we' can relax for the weekend at least till we see what gustavs brother ike will do. i prey he doesnt hit, & if he does i hope i can get to the same motel i was in for gustav.
i must be honest guys, i dislike the way the rest of the country uses our tradgedies as there newest reality show. i love southeast louisiana, the best food, the best blues & metal & the best people. give us the GOOD NEWS come monday mr brek. you the bomb & my family here trusts your word over all else
later man
john
Tring to put the link in here for informant to Dr. Master's blog. Blogger is truncating the link.
Do a search on google for the blog or you can link to it from another weather blog I found:
http://www.weathergeeks.blogspot.com
Bob...
Please clear something up. Are you implying that the synoptics indicate yet another close call at the least *unless* something happens such as a trough eroding the ridge over Fla. or a ridge building in over the central gulf region, i.e. events whose probabilities are very uncertain? And, listen, I'm with you in that I want all the information and reasonable, articulated analysis I can get but I detest looking at the these tropical weather sites and seeing all the hyping, etc. but, this time, in other words, do we, as in those of us hoping that this storm makes landfall somewhere else , really have much to hang our hats on and why?
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