"Hurrication"...great new word. Yes, that's what some can do when these storms threaten. Take a "hurrication" to friends or relatives and stay a week. I will decide tomorrow or Monday whether Brenda can come home or stay with her friends a few more days until we know for sure about Ike. I suggest that for anyone who has small (under 5 yr.) children. To find Dr. Masters blog...do a google search for "weather underground" and then click on tropical/hurricanes.
As I have also mentioned before...IF Ike does threaten...I fear many (maybe 50%) will not evacuate again due to 1) costs, 2) traffic (8 hours to get from Metairie to Slidell) and most important 3) past experience. I fear many returned to see little damage (worse along coast-Houma & Baton Rouge) and they will say next time..."let's ride it out." The way you change that perception is to be honest with them, don't over exaggerate the dangers and spell out the consequences of staying. That is what I do and will continue to do. Again, enjoy this weekend.
55 comments:
It's hard to relax and enjoy the weekend when you know you need to get home and take care of things. I am fortunate to have a place to stay in Arlington, TX after evacuating from Houma, LA. The power is still not on, but we have good news that our house didn't suffer any damage, only our shed lost a panel on its side. The question is do we go home, try to patch the shed, clean up the refrigerator only to bug out again by Thursday?
We're staying till Sunday here in TX, but can't stay away forever. So we pray fervently that Ike stays away from Houma. Our infrastructure took a massive blow. those of you in the N.O. area can relax and enjoy your weekend, go eat at Emeril's and walk the Riverwalk. Just remember as you do to say a prayer for those in Terrebonne and Lafourche Parish that visit N.O. often that we can recover and live and love in Louisiana again!
Thanks for reading.
Bob, thanks for your Blog. You're dead on...and this thing could go ANYWHERE between FLorida and Texas....that is certain, and doesn't help with evacuations. Monday or Tuesday, we'll know better where he's going and how strong.
People ask whether or not they should come back to have to evacuate again? That's a personal decision, based upon finances, resources, etc...just make sure that if you come back, you have the ability to evacuate again SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY! It may never be necessary....just think of all of the possible scenarios and how it will affect YOU, and YOU are the only person who can answer for your situation.
Lots of silly comments on here about models....and saying that "Bob is only good at 48 hours" Actually...I looked at many model runs today for Ike, which have drastically changed since yesterday, and will again tomorrow. Because of the size, strength and movement of Ike (all subject to change) it becomes much more accurate in forecasting within 48 hours of landfall. NOTHING about the long term forecast of models are accurate....so for Bob to put ANY stock in them is foolish and misleading. For bloggers to do so is an arrogant insult to Bob, the good people who read this blog, and lastly, the NHC.
Listen to the NHC and Bob who will relay the most accurate information to you. Stay calm and think "What if?" and be prepared for the scenarios that you could find yourself in. Then be ready to act upon your plans when called to.
Ike has so many interactions with land, steering currents, that we may NEVER deal with him. If we do, you're gonna know ASAP with Bob...
Thanks for taking your time to keep everyone informed, Bob.
Stormzz
We evacuated to Dallas to stay with family for Gustav and retured on Thursday because my husband had work and kids had school, but we're broke now and couldn't evacuate for Ike even if we had to.
Everything seems focused on calming people down here, which is great. However, a question about forecasts and predictions: if somewhere (New Orleans, for example) is in the middle of the 300-mile cone of error 5-6 days out... what is the honest chance of it hitting? 10%, 1%?
Or, more accurately... what is the HONEST cone of error, seeing as the cone of error itself moves... it actually should be bigger, right?
I'm new to the Southwest, so my only experience has been Gustav.
Hey Rich...we now have less than a 10% chance of the storm coming to the New Orleans area...but as it gets closer, more and more of the cone will include the area that will be struck by the storm. This will also increase the probability that the storm will make landfall there. As the strike probability increases for an area, the margin of error decreases. SO, if our chance of being hit is less than 10% now, there is a HUGE margin of error associated with that.
Here's the bottom line...no one knows right now, or until the storm moves closer.
Here is an excerpt from the 2:00 EDT official NHC discussion. Read carefully...they discuss the variance in the models.
The GFS takes the storm to Texas, the GFDL to the Florida Panhandle and another, to us...UNTIL atmospheric conditions stabilize and interact with Ike, NO ONE can tell you where it will go.
From the NHC: 2:00 EDT discussion-
This shortwave trough will be a critical player in Ike's eventual
track at the extended ranges. Dynamical models are split into two
camps at this time...with some models showing the shortwave passing
sufficiently far to the north to keep Ike moving
west-northwestward...while other models show Ike turning northward
into the weakness. It is way too early to commit to either one of
these extended range solutions...and thus the new official forecast
is very close to the previous advisory.
If I may be so bold....and translate Forecaster Beven's words at the end....We're sticking to our story cuz it's the best guess 5 days out...we don't know yet!
Please folks, don't worry and try not to forecast what the experts CAN NOT forecast now. Watch and wait! Listen to Bob, as he'll give you the straight story!
Have a good evening ya'll...
Stormzz
Hey Squiggle...
IF it comes time for an evacuation, see if your area is under an evacuation order, and find a neighbor, friend or someone who can then help you to evacuate. IF A DANGEROUS storm comes our way, and you are told to leave, it would be very foolish to stay. DRIVING AWAY is better than staying and losing your lives.
Best of luck to you...hoping that we don't even have to deal with this issue...
Stormzz
StormZZ -
Now I know you did not get any hurricane experience working with Paul T over there on Airport road in Slidell, now all of a sudden YOU are the expert? Now we both know what you did in Slidell and Miami with Ed R so don't mislead us on your experience. Just fun to watch Bob knock everyone besides himself that makes a prediction/forecast on storms 5 days out yet he tries and fails big time. Ex. He wanted us in the center of the cone of error for Gustav stating that is good because that means the storm will turn and miss us. Also just Friday he forecasted Ike to drop two cats from a 3 down a 1 because of wind shear etc. and this is after he says not even the NHC can forecast intensity of a hurricne good yet he can? More to forecasting tracks etc than using models and you should know this from using AWIPS etc. ;-)
Once again Caveman never said Ike is striking New Orleans... just that the storm is headed for the gulf which I stated days ago and look what is occuring!
Caveman, I think that everyone sees that the hurricane is heading into the gulf...
Who I've worked with and what experience I have is none of your business....
I would NEVER call myself an expert Caveman...I know what I know and what I don't...and ALWAYS there are brighter and more experienced people out there that can teach me something. You might try that attitude on for size instead of coming here and making personal attacks on bloggers and forecasters.
Have a nice day predicting that it's going to get dark later...
Stormzz
Thanks stormzz. And everyone:
Understand that a lot of us are new to the area and unfamiliar with the accuracy/chances this far out. Its all new to me, personally. When I lived in Chicago I got good at calling BS or being worried by a tornado (oh, and we had HOURS of advance notice, not weeks!)
So while all the talk of worry and BS is good to hear, some of us really want to sort through to some hard numbers... like "this thing has a 5% chance of hitting us".
See, the Yankees have a 5% chance of making the playoffs... it ain't gonna happen.
Jim, that comment brought tears to my eyes! We are from Houma also but moved to Texas almost 2 years ago....I miss Houma. I hope that Houma is back up and running again soon..and also my parents live in Lafourche parish and they are having a hard time right now living in those conditions.. Last night, my mom told me that they are running out of food, water, and ice...the stuff that is given out to them by Fema, I guess. She said they don't have enough for everyone down there...that is hard to hear. Wish they would have stayed here longer rather than go back to those conditions. I just saw on NHC that Ike is back to a CAT 3! I hope it does the Cuba thing like Bob said :)
Oh, and Caveman? Think back in time...while I respect Trotter and Dr Rappaport greatly, I worked with a couple of guys who taught them what they know....
Make a few phone calls bud...you'll find out quickly who I am....
Stormzz
Stormzz - hey you are the one stating your experience on this blog, I'm just calling you out on it to back up your "experience" on this blog since you seem to think I lack any. How do you know I don't have experience working at the NHC, TAFB, TSB or WSO? Maybe I have done a few years in Norman at the Storm Prediction Ctr? Did you enjoy working under Paul? How do you know I am not a SOO or WCM or even a MIC? Maybe I am a GS-14 or 15? Maybe I am currently at the Southern HQ? Maybe I have a masters? Seems like so far Caveman has been the ONLY one to get close to calling these latest storms... You do know that Slidell office has been cleaned up now and Paul is no longer in Slidell right?
LOL maybe I already DO!
Like Bob has stated his blog is for sharing ideas and opinions which I have on these storms yet you seem to like to attack me yet I seem to be doing pretty well on my forecasts and gut feelings on these storms....
Oh yeah have you made it out to scuba lately?
Stormzz -
Have you looked at the lastes GFDL run? So far GFDL has been the most correct model for Ike, we both know 75% of those other models you can just place on ignore because they are not tropical programed models.
Caveman...you are missing the entire point. Sharing ideas is the point. Trying to frighten people needlessly, making attacks on Bob and others, is pointless.
THIS IS BOB BRECK'S BLOG...manners, Caveman....
Right and wrong doesn't matter...experts WILL actually predict the storm, in efforts to save lives. LET THEM DO SO!
I don't care who you are...see? Yes, I know Graham....and in what way does that matter?
THIS IS BOB BRECK'S BLOG! Let him do his job and add to the discussion. Surely you have valuable opinions. Do those opinions have to include disrespect for everyone's opinion here? UNLESS IT'S FACT, state your opinion as opinion and stop trying to scare the bejeesus outta people in this area. They have suffered enough!
-Stormzz
Bob Breck thank you! It's amazing how people expect you to be "all things" to them just because you're a weather man with this blog - but you continue to be calm and positive, empathetic and smart. Thanks for not getting caught up in drama - we really need you to maintain your dignity - it's VERY helpful.
And I know you mean no disrespect to those in storm devastated areas by saying we here in NOLA should take this time to relax. Our hearts go out to folks in areas hard hit - I spent all morning volunteering in Houma - but I'm not going to miss the chance to watch the Saints and take a breather for one afternoon. I didn't have that luxury for well over a year after Katrina - and I appreciate it so much now. So thanks for giving those of us who have been struggling and working so hard under so much stress "permission" to take a break when we can.
You're the best!
Just had to say ... thanks, Bob! I'm happy to have found your blog in the midst of the crazy week before Gustav. Yours is the perspective to keep us from being crazy.
LOL not trying to purposely freak people out,just calling it as I see it happening such as Ike entering the gulf which I said days ago, never said Ike was going to destroy New Orleans did I? Have numerous times said to listen to Bob when the storm is closer... Only point out flaws in someone else AFTER they attempt to point out mine. What info have I said that was not factual?
More questions...
Are the models starting to "lose confidence" in a trough/front coming along and picking this storm up for a landfall toward Fla. either the west coast or panhandle? The GFDL model shows a landfall near the Ala./Fla. line, but of the main models that you hear about, that one seems to be the only one not either bringing this storm to SE La.'s doorstep or to the west. If there's supposed to be a ridge building in from the east how strong will it be? I'd rather see this, of course, make landfall to the east, but also are having to hang our hats on hope for a track similar to that of Hurricane Rita? As I recall with that the predictions were first for a south Tex. landfall but eventually the La./Tex. border.
Saying that essentially everywhere on the coast is a possibility and leaving it at that is a cop-out and is not reassuring or helpful. At least articulate to where it might go given which condition or feature sets up, i.e. what to possibly be looking for, and how it looks right now as to whether such-and-such condition is actually transpiring. For example, while it seemed that we had some hope for a trough/front to come along and draw this storm toward Fla., now it apparently seems that this is pretty doubtful. If that's the case, then heaven knows we could use a strong ridge right over us for next week.
Weighing in from Mississippi - We also were devastated by Katrina and our nerves our frayed. It is one thing to not panic, but often, for people to prepare, they must sense there is something to fear or run from.
I am prepared for the worst and hoping for the best. Since we were evacuation ready for Gustav, we are evacuation ready now. Blog participants without the benefit of stormzz's and caveman's experience, or Bob's for that matter, may want to be told get ready just in case and they look to professionals to tell them. For some people knowing on Monday that we may get hit on Friday may not be enough time to make the proper arrangements. During my preps for Katrina, being faced with losing everything (which ultimately happened) was paralyzing but then my fear (let's call it flight or fight since that is what it really is) took over. Sometimes the fear is the only thing that gets people going.
I am lucky enough to be married to a meteorologist and get a detailed brief every 6 hours, often more frequently. However, that being said, my brain is spinning on possibilities of what may happen and yes, I will say that I am experiencing some anxiety. It is my experience living in this area since I was 2 and going through hurricanes Camille and Katrina and others, that leads me to believe, however, that it is better to a be a bit "panicked" than to be complacent.
I am starting a new blog about science in general. Anyone, with any opinions about science is welcome to offer comments.
Everyone stay safe and be prepared. We never lose from being prepared. Make your preparations while you can think clearly so that you won't be paralyzed when it gets down to the wire.
Sciencegal...
I find your comments touching. WELL SAID! It is difficult to not know exactly where this storm may go, and there is often not enough time to make EVERY precaution needed.
The motto is to be prepared for anything that YOU CAN!! It may not always be possible to protect all property if time does not allow. Most of all, be ready to leave and protect your LIFE.
There are MANY scenarios that could take this storm to the panhandle, to Texas...we will have to wait.
EVERYONE will have enough time to evacuate if necessary.
Speaking of Science...did you know that Bill Nye the Science Guy is back on the Green Channel? :)
Stormzz
:-) thanks - the only thing in the end is to protect your life and help your friends and family protect theirs (including pets. The rest is just stuff! Stuff doesn't make a community, people do. Now I just sound like a politician, eeek!
Bob, I watched your reports intently prior to Gustave hitting land. You nailed it dead on every time I saw your reports. For instance, you would say it stalled, within a hour or so the NHC would say it stalled. I will be watching your reports on Ira. Thank you for keeping us up-to-the-minute with your accurate forecasting!
Hundredoaks? Here's my opinion, and I hope it helps you...I'm reposting due to an error!
September 6, 2008 1:01 PM
Blogger HundredOaks said...
More questions...
Are the models starting to "lose confidence" in a trough/front coming along and picking this storm up for a landfall toward Fla. either the west coast or panhandle? The GFDL model shows a landfall near the Ala./Fla. line, but of the main models that you hear about, that one seems to be the only one not either bringing this storm to SE La.'s doorstep or to the west. If there's supposed to be a ridge building in from the east how strong will it be?
I know that you feel it's a cop out to not say where it's going. But see, it would be wrong to inform where one THINKS it's going based on current conditions, then have that change. If anyone were to do that, just to "show off" then they would be called out for being wrong. It's a no win situation here.
Look at the GFDL...it's been great with IKE so far...and the latest runs have again changed! Earlier it was showing a turn in toward Florida, and now it takes it into the GOM where there are (based on current info) little to no steering currents.
We simply MUST wait and see what this storm does. Intensity forecasts are not nearly as accurate as we'de like. This storm could greatly come apart as Gustav did after a beating over Cuba.
Ike appears to be a Cat 4 now...it may NEVER be our problem, but with each passing hour, we must watch it more closely, and then if danger appears high, make plans to protect ourselves, EVEN if it weakens or turns at the last minute. We are never wrong for leaving if the STORM changes direction. Shame on us if we stay and die needlessly!
WATCH and be patient!
I hope this helps
Stormzz
Latest track is up.... Once again Caveman called yet another storm in the central gulf coast many days prior... Ike is "small" now but he will grow and expand his windfield greatly once in the gulf esp over the loop currents. Half to realize that Louisiana is right smack in the middle of the Gulf so percentages of a landfall in or about our area are increasing hourly.
"Shame on us if we stay and die needlessly!" and you say I am freak'n people out? People should be freak'n out, we got LUCKY with Gustav, dodged a big bullet. Levee's will not take another hurricane hitting close by, they barely survived Gustav which was a baby. Just like I said yesterday, get ready for a shocking track change for today and that has occured at the latest update.
I'm saying that I detest seeing this "down the middle" type forecast in this situation between two sets of models/schools of thought. Go with the school of thought that makes the most scientific sense one way or the other. Don't just go "down the middle" just because it's the mean which seems to be what the Hurricane Center is doing. That doesn't help anything...eventually things figure to play out one way or the other. Either there is some feature, e.g. trough, that the storm would follow or there isn't. Or there's a ridge or there isn't.
Instead of doing what they do which the forecast line and cone of error, in this current forecast, there ought to be forecast line and error cone "A" and forecast "B" along with reasons which each one might verify.
Just this constant "it might go anywhere from Fla. to Tex." line accomplishes nothing.
Bottom line: in this current situation, what exactly are the things that we need to be looking for to start to get a clearer picture, like, say, where the track is by such-and-such time or whether we can see that a trough is influencing the track? Heck yes, we don't need this...what can we look for that might be a positive sign?
I understand that some of you "bloggers" have different levels of experience with regard to meteorology, forecasting, tropics, etc.
For those of us who look at NHC advisories as if we were reading Greek manuscripts, it would be easier to simply read each person's interpretation of the data than to attempt to cipher through the "one-upping" and the useless banter that has been occurring.
Everyone is entitled to their opinions, but I personally feel that "professionals" spouting off back and forth at each other (especially when nobody knows what's going to happen) simply causes them to completely lose credibility.
I think some of you can give us good information, and I wish that the posts would stay on topic.
Thank You.
Cone of error does have a forecast line and the cone of error takes into account all the possible variables, thus the cone of error.
"Powerful, small storms are among the most unpredictable of all hurricanes. Hugo did a very unexpected turn and nailed Charleston like a surprise party, with no friends in attendance, just morticians and insurance adjusters at the after party.
I am not recommending any kind of panic, or any evacuations anywhere that the NHC is not recommending.
I am also saying the NHC and current modeling techniques are probabilities based on what we have seen--and I stress something important here, being that statistically we have to have 2000 iterations of a specific scenario in order to draw conclusions from it. Anyone living in Miami should feel relieved in a measured and very watchful way.
There is a component to this scenario that is not programmed into the models, being a second hurricane following and being affected by the path of another that recently shared the same geographic coordinates (a la Katrina and Rita). This, again, is not a suggestion that Hanna was powerful enough to make Ike unexpectedly rake the east cost of Florida, only a reminder that we have an example of a phenomenon that is not included in the current model technology, and makes an unexpected jog North when approaching Florida a distinct possibility--even if not a probability.
I am saying watch and wait, and also that there is a follow-the-leader effect here that can challenge our current knowledge bases about steering currents and high altitude pressure systems, and one with which we have very little experience.
The unpredictability of storms like Ike, a la Hugo, and the follow-the-leader effect are simply two wild cards that need consideration in this game that is anything but over."
Hundredoaks...
We would like to see a stronger cool front pull IKE to the North. It's just not looking that way.
What we see is that it's PROJECTED path is into the Gulf where there will be VERY weak steering currents, and it is likely to just wander.
NO ONE wants to hear that...you want to know what they scenarios are....that IS the best scenario, as reflected by the NHC track.
What can change? Ike could weaken after skirting along Cuba. Watch and see AFTER it does so.
Speed of Ike vs. movement of steering currents into place could affect where he goes.
TIMING is important here. You are asking to have an answer at a time when WE DO NOT KNOW!
It is forecasting, not fortune telling!
When Ike comes off of Cuba, we can observe steering, as well as his intensity and give a better picture.
UNTIL then, just wait! It is hard, but TRY to be patient.
Stormzz
Hope you all have a nice evening, and thanks again for your honesty and wisdom, Bob!
Stormzz
Oh...wanted to add a bit of fun here! Have ya'll noticed that a number of songs are great hurricane songs? :)
Riders on the storm- The Doors
Blowin' in the Wind - Bob Dylan
....oh the list goes on...
How many can ya'll come up with?
:)
Ok...gotta go...
Stormzz
Rock You Like a Hurricane - Scorpions
After the Storm - Carley Simon
Trying to Reason with Hurricane Season - Jimmy Buffett
Just thought of this:
Classics iV Stormy (LOL!)
...oh, and let's ask for a lil Aretha Franklin R E S P E C T!! LOL
ha ha...
Here is a site that weather buffs may find interesting ...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/data/
Click on hurricane and tropical storm images for some amazing pics.
Enjoy (or loathe, whichever, lol)
Stormzz
ps...another song: Raindrops keep falling on my head BJ Thomas, lol!
"Rainy Night in Georgia" -- Brook Benton
"When the Levee Breaks" -- Led Zeppelin
"Should I Stay or Should I Go" -- The Clash
"Looks Like We Made It" -- Barry Manilow
"Take The Long Way Home" -- Supertramp
to jim, i understand what you are going through. After Katrina I was unable to return to my home in New Orleans for two months. It took my family a year and a half to rebuild. I hurt for all in your area that will have to deal with the many issues of rebuilding from a storm. I assure you the least of these will be cleaning out your refrigerator. I pray that all that have been impacted by Gustav and may be impacted by Ike have the strength to forge ahead. No one that has ever felt the destructive force of a hurricane wishes this on anyone.
Stormzz of course Ike will weaken when and if he goes over Cuba, that is basic 101 hurricane forecasting... so when he does it will be no great forecast you can go back to say "I told you so", but afterwards he will explode again in the warm loop current waters..
Bob is saying ole crap right about now after looking at the new runs...
Current model trend is pushing Ike west past Louisiana. If this trend continues this storm will not be a Louisiana storm. I know caveman loves the GFDL model. Over the past 24 hours it has flipped from the far eastern panhandle of Florida to the Texas coast.
BOB BRECK, I'M 23 AND I REMEMBER WHEN YOU HAD BROWN HAIR AND TWEED SUITS. MY MOM AND I LOVE YOU!!!YOU ROCK BOB YOU ARE THE BEST METEOROLOGIST IN THE N.O.!!
Using Hurrtrak RM/Pro 2008 software for ingest and display of the official information as well as live feed from recon (which is so cool by the way):
Last four tracks overlain on map together show slight westerly adjustments. Of course this makes perfect sense as the storm has been continuing on a WSW path. All of the last four tracks have been very similar however, but as olereb has stated, the models have suggested in the last run, a landfall (yes I know this is too soon to call and I am not forecastng it or predicting) in central louisiana. However, note in these runs that it is also turning and moving fairly close to north at that stage so a making a different aproach to the coast than Gustav did and the models show a stronger, deepening storm.
If you have all been reading other weather information sites, you will have read alot about how bad the models are at predicting intensity.
BUT also these models are beyond even the five day forecast and therefore must be placed in the proper context. One thing that I do see is pretty good agreement in them as far as a more westerly trend which would be good for LA/MS in general.
I would like to say that I am not a meteorologist but live with one LOL so please, this is not official information, but just passing on what it looks like on the map. I would post map but it is copyrighted so I am unable to do that.
As I said earlier, it is best to be prepared and get major preps done while our heads are clear and Ike is not an immediate threat. I am sure Bob would say the same.
:-)
It would be nice if these latest models are indicating something such as the presence of a ridge being a significant factor in steering now. That's sort of what I was trying to get it in talking about something we could possibly hang our hats on.
Looking at the forecast pointed right at areas struggling to clean up, recover, etc. and for a very powerful storm has to make you feel sick. One would tend to think, too, that if the Hurricane Center issues it then they have to have some kind of sound scientific reasoning involved such that one does not just dismiss such a forecast without being to articulate something more than a vague "it's far away..." or "it could go anywhere...."
I also want to say that the National Hurricane Center did essentially get the track of Hurricane Gustav right on the money about 6 days out, even as the models were seeming to shift around, with the intensity being the surprise. How much will they/might they adjust the forecast track from here on in with Hurricane Ike? We have to hope that it does get adjusted at some point.
Bob, would it be possible to get caveman and stormzz to air their dirty laundry elsewhere and leave this blog for serious comments and questions from non credential boasting bloggers.
hundredoaks: There is detailed discussion on the NHC website where you can read their reasoning on a particular forecast and more detailed analysis of what the steering forces may or may not be doing.
Go to:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
click on Ike on the map and then click on Discussion. The latest forecast track comes out at 10pm and the discussion will be there around the same time.
I understand how frustrating it is looking at the track and seeing it pointed right at the place you are living and trying to recover in, post Gustav and post-Katrina and not being able to get any additional information other than that track.
I mentioned in an earlier post that my husband is a meteorologist and that I am getting detailed updates almost continually but this is sometimes bad, because it's information overload and one can get caught up in anxiety. This is where I have been for the last 24 hours since the track has been basically pointed to the mouth of the river.
You are not alone out there in dealing with the mental overload that comes from not knowing.
The 10pm forecast just came out. Go check out the discussion and the track.
:-)
All I want to say about Ike is this...none of us knows where he will end up...if he stops and enjoys a cigar with Fidel in Cuba for too long the friction may tear him apart. BUT...IF IT DOESN'T, and somehow, someway this hurricane regains its power and strikes New Orleans again...I would seriously begin to think the hand of God has a score to settle with that place. I live in the northeast and Hanna breezed by us with very little rain or wind. God Bless everyone in Ike's path.
Caveman, there is no use in scaring people. Yes, everyone along the gulf coast should be prepared for Ike, but there is no use in getting everyone into a panic.
I live in Colorado now, since Katrina, but I lived on the Westbank for most of my life. My wife is from Barataria. Her folks still live there, as her dad is a shrimper. Most of the residents have learned to trust Bob Breck's judgement. When it comes to hurricanes everybody always ask,"What is Bob Breck saying". Bob only calls for evacuation when it is absolutely necessary. Predicting that Ike would enter the gulf is nothing to beat your chest about "caveman". Anyone that has lived on the gulf for any amount of time could have done that. It had a 50/50 of either going up the coast or in the gulf. What was necessary for it to go up the east coast didn't happen. So yeah it would likely keep it's present track and head for the gulf. Once it hits the gulf, it could go anywhere. Yeah, a probable track can be predicted based on the weather tools and conditions in the gulf.
With Ike being 5 or 6 days out it is to early to pin point where it is going. Thus, there is no need to get everybody into a panic. Yes, everyone on the gulf coast should be prepared, but not panic. Bob Breck is right telling everyone not to panic. Part of Bob's job is letting people know when to get out. He does that at the appropriate time, and in the appropriate manner. If you know anything about evacuation, then you that if people get in a panic its a disaster. Most of the people in Southeast Louisana are just starting to return to their homes, and Bob is not going to call for another evacuation if it is not absolutely necessary. He has been doing this for many many years and the people of Southeast Louisana have come to trust his judgement, and not some "caveman".
At 5 to 6 days out, only God knows the true destination. Stop inciting panic and let Bob do his job!
There is one more "hurricane model" i'd like to see more of. The Bob Breck model. With all due respect, instead of: have a nice weekend, we'll worry about ___ next week, i'd like to hear what the Bob Breck model thinks is the likely course RIGHT NOW, using the info at hand and as usual, his reasons why. If he thinks it is NOLA then say so, don't worry about panic, just give a soundly reasoned explanation and logical humans will use it appropriaately. Thanks.
Post a Comment