Geez, I left Dallas this morning(no didn't see the Mayor) and arrive back in N.O. this evening. Imagine my shock to see the latest model runs! Wow! What a shift! Can it be real? Before you let your guard down, (hey we're now outa the cone of error) remember Frederic (1979). he was in the same location as Ike and came off Cuba with a northward turn. I won't feel good about Ike until he's past 90 degrees west longitude. ALL of the models now take Ike into South Texas. Am I relieved? You betcha ! However, until Ike is past 90 degrees west, I won't feel totally safe. That should happen by early on Wednesday. Bottom line...Things are looking much better for Louisiana...looking worse for Texas...but landfall is still 5 days away.
Ike is no longer a super storm...in fact NHC is not sure Ike is a hurricane. They are predicting a return to Cat. 3 status once it gets back into the Gulf and some high tides can be expected for Louisiana even if Ike goes into south Texas. IF we escape Ike, there is nothing down the "hurricane pipeline" for the next 2 weeks. Hopefully by then, those fall cold fronts will be here and we can say good bye to Hurricane Season 2008. Only once (1893) have we had a major hurricane in October.
25 comments:
Thanks for checking in, Bob and I hope that you and yours are well. I am encouraged by the latest track and will continue to pray that it stays on this trend. I'm sure there will be naysayers who will still say that it will turn and come right for us, but as of right now, I'm feeling good about it.
Keeping fingers crossed,
Marielle
Of course it's going the other way, I stocked up at Wal-Mart yesterday! I'll have to do that every time a hurricane crosses Cuba.
Agreed it's not good to relax till it passes 90 degrees, but at least breathing is a tad easier. :)
Bob - You mentioned that we haven't had a major hurricane in October in a very long time, but didn't we have one in November of 1985 or 1986? I vaguely remember evacuating from New Orleans to Baton Rouge around Thanksgiving when I was in high school.
Thanks for being our Hurricane Guru!
Victoria
Victoria, I remember that one, it was Hurricane Juan, kept coming in and out as far as I remember, a real flooding event at our Old Metairie place. I'm pretty sure it was 1985, and a true misery.
We're up on the North Shore now, in Waldheim out of the way of a lot of the worst of the storms although it was pretty bad in Katrina, but at least no flooding up here.
I'm definitely ready to say "Goodbye" to Hurricane Season 2008 . . . . .
Bob, Wasn't Wilma a major storm in October 2005?
jimmy: YES!!! Wilma was a Category 5 at one point, one of four Category 5 hurricanes in the 2005 season. Here is the information on Wilma.
" Hurricane Wilma was the third hurricane of the Atlantic 2005 season to reach category 5 status, setting a new record for the seasonal number of category 5 storms. It was the 12th hurricane of the season, tying 1969 for the most in any season. Wilma was also the most intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic.
Click for larger image
The most intense storm on record for the Atlantic Basin, minimum central pressure for Wilma, on October 19th reached 882 mb. Peak sustained winds reached 175 mph as the storm tracked west through the Caribbean Sea. Weakening occurred due to an eyewall replacement cycle prior to landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula on the 21st, but the storm also expanded laterally causing hurricane force winds to extend from only 15 miles from the eye (early on the 19th), to 85 miles during the hours before landfall in Mexico. After battering the Yucatan for a full day, Wilma recurved over the next 2 days to make landfall in Florida on the 24th as a category 3 storm.
At its peak intensity, Wilma's minimum central pressure reached 882 mb, the lowest pressure ever recorded for an Atlantic tropical cyclone. The top 3 most intense storms (as measured by minimum central pressure) are:
Hurricane Wilma, October 19th 2005, 882mb, category 5, near 175 mph"
2005 we actually ran out of regular names and started again with the Alpha, Bravo, etc naming conventions
There were several other storms during October of 2005 as well although not majors.
:-)
And in 1985 Juan was a tropical storm which persisted from late October into November and brought a lot of flooding rains to the area.
jimmy, I believe what Bob was stating is that's it's extremely unlikely for a MAJOR hurricane to strike Louisiana by October ... because ... generally speaking, come October we experience a "climate change" in Louisiana. That is, the Fall cool fronts began making their way down here and
1) change the atmosphere here to cooler temperatures; and
2) the fronts cool off the gulf waters along the northern GOM.
Both of these severely compromise the formation of a major hurricane in our region.
There are always some rare exceptions -- but by and large -- by the time October arrives, the northern gulf coast's hurricane season is essentially over for the year.
Re: Hurricane Juan -- which was in late October 1985 -- Juan was a minimal hurricane that sat around out in the gulf -- and the flooding it caused was primarily caused by heavy rains. In other words,, it was a "rain event" -- but shows that even a minimal hurricane can cause a lot of damage and headaches.
Re: Wilma -- it was heading into the GOM from the Carribean ... but a strong cold front [remember -- it was in October-- blocked it from making it's way further into the gulf and "slung it" into southern Florida.
Wow, we must be praying harder than Texas! Good news, thanks Breck.
In addition to "praying the storm away" -- I suggest it's equally important to pray for the storm to weaken considerably ... and leave the "experts" scratching their heads over their intensity forecasts.
One thing that irks me is that on a certain major weather blog [i.e., not this one] you have a number of people who express their "hope" for a blob out in the atlantic basin to become the next big killer storm ... because they enjoy tracking storms.
Do any of these people realize that this killer storm [they wish to track and give their opinions about] is gonna cause a lot of misery to wherever the storm hits?
If a man's only hobby is to sit around all summer and stare at the satillite loops from the NHC website praying for a 2005 type hurricane season ... is a bit morbid to say the least. If someone has that "addiction" -- perhaps he or she should find another hobby.
The local news in Baton Rouge, this morning, was warning us NOT to take our eyes off of IKE. They said if he slows down in forward speed that the ridges guiding him to Texas may miss him and a more northerly track could pull him up to Louisiana. Thoughts?
Keeping an eye on Ike, but am more relieved after seeing tracks for last 2 days showing landfall in Texas.
Just pray that wherever this storm comes ashore, that the intensity is less than predicted.
Glad for NOW, that things look as they do...none of us in this area have the endurance to weather another one.
I agree though, it is important to remember that when any storm hits, fellow human beings are impacted. We may not hear of them on the news in 2 weeks, but they hurt just as we did when we were forgotten.
As for more storms coming, cool fronts.....we can all debate whether or not a storm ever hit here in October/November...believe me the history books are full of all sorts of surprises, but for TODAY, I'm breathing a sigh of relief.
Jim, I contribute to several weather boards....and as a meteorologist, I am excited at the power of Mother Nature, the chance to study another one of these phenomena...so, I jump right in with the matter of fact speaking on those boards. They are WEATHER boards, do not forget. But NEVER do I forget the human suffering that they bring, and pray for all when one forms...
My hope is that through study and science, we can better learn to protect folks with early warning, better prediction methods, and ultimately save lives. I think that most folks involved in weather, LOVE weather, but still...the safety of humans is their ultimate goal. We all have families too! :)
As for Ike possibly coming back to LA? Yes, as possible as MS and AL and FLA....ANYTHING is possible with storms, and sure, I'm still looking at Ike. But it looks real good for it missing us. Today, let's let folks taking a breath, enjoy that thought.
Thanks Bob for your constant information and for walking this journey so closely with the people of the New Orleans/So LA area.
-Stormzz
Track starting shift back north and placing Houston back into the cone of error. Remember 4 days ago this storm was forcasted to hit Miami! Ike slows just a tad and there will be a MAJOR shift in the forcast track and that may be starting as the latest update has shown. During time of year many storms tend to track more north. Storm how are things in the private sector?
what track exactly has Ike shifting back north caveman?
the one in your fantasies, I think
In Caveman's defense (yes, omg), the track at landfall with the 10am update is slightly further north than the 4am track. Is this a trend or an abberation (sp)? There are two models now that show a more northerly turn as it approaches Texas, bringing the storm up near Houston.
Next model runs should be complete by 1pm CST.
Caveman: since you know me (uh yeah i have a new blog name), I am curious as to general location in the area.
:-)
caveman: to clarify, i meant your general location in the area. Are you on the Gulf Coast or just an interested meteorologist?
I agree wholeheartedly about the other bloggers. Much of what can be seen and gleaned from these sites is indeed very interesting and informative but people need to realize that when they post some of these things that while they definitely aren't public officials they still could be stirring up panic. And, yes, it's not hard to sense that some of these people almost seem to hope for a storm to be coming this way (if it appears to be headed elsewhere there are endless reminders of how things could change but if pointed this way by the models, even several days out, it's considered as essentially locked on target).
Sciencegal, did they run stormzz off over at the underground? I am in a cave, duh...
Caveman: Funny LOL Not sure about stormzz and the underground. I actually work in an office with a window now on the 2nd story too in a whole different building! It's bright and sunny outside right now which is making this telecon I am listening to excruciating. LOL
Still trying to guess your identity since you seem to know so much about me..
Not too many caves here, unless you mean the darkened cavern of a highly secure area with a bunch of computers...
No caveman, I'm ever present at the underground...
I just try to avoid the place when the blog trolls are out in large numbers.
We have one in particular there that seems to make the rounds on SEVERAL boards stirring up trouble wherever he goes, getting banned regularly...:) so it's no fun to be there when they are out in large numbers. I and a few others have always been the peace keepers around the place...
When needed there, the regular & sensibles know where to find me...
I agree with sciencegal...the models HWRF and I believe UKMET have moved more northerly, but still showing a movement far west, then north around the ridge of high pressure.
ANYTIME a storm is out there, we need to monitor closely, but I am happy with the consistency that I see in the models towards south Texas. I believe that they too will gradually shift more northward, but hope that people realize that when I say this...I am talking about more northward along the TEXAS coast.
Is it possible that even this could change? YES! But, Ike is moving along on course, and appears that all is well for now...I do not anticipate any sudden rush to New Orleans, lol!
HundredOaks...I agree, it seems that some folks seem to hope a storm would come this way....and perhaps this is just our perception, as I mentioned in an earlier post. But, honestly, most people just have a post traumatic stress situation and are ever vigil with storms HOPING that it DOESN'T COME here!!
Let's keep praying with IKE that he weakens and continues moving elsewhere!
-Stormzz
Hmmm.... There is another possibility. Tomorrow the Large Hadron Collider comes online at CERN in Switzerland. There is an infinitesimal chance that a black hole will be created and the earth will be swallowed up.... LOL - I am just hoping that Ike gets swallowed up.
If you want to read more about the Hadron Collider you can do a google search, and being the brainy, geeky, science gal that I am, I have posted some information to my science blog. Its really quite interesting but like monitoring the models too closely or focusing too much on the what if's, it can be pretty scary.....
Post a Comment