We learn from every hurricane and Ike is no exception. Katrina taught us that wind speed (intensity) is not as important as the size of the storm's wind field. This was confirmed with Ike as Louisiana saw a greater storm surge with Ike than it did with Gustav. Perhaps it's time for an "enhanced Saffir-Simpson Scale"? However, NHC has some issues not only with intensity forecasts but also with storm surge. If you looked at yesterday's storm surge forecasts, they indicated Galveston's sea wall (17') would be topped by a surge of 15-20'. In today's Times-Picayune the headline read ..."surge to 25'). In reality, the surge at Galveston was 11 feet. What NHC did nail once again was the track from 3 days out. Bottom line...as smart as man can get, Mother Nature seems to always be one step ahead.
John Snell did a factual story the other day regarding the frequency of major( Cat3,4 &5)hurricanes hitting Louisiana. Surprisingly, there have been less than 10 in over 150 years. We have been in a more active cycle since 1995 and are likely to see another 10-15 years of above normal activity. However, that doesn't mean every year will be active or have U.S. landfalling storms. Our concern should be on restoring our first line of defense, the barrier islands & the wetlands. I believe our current Governor understands this and we will finally start to see action and not more studies. It is our responsibility to elect the right officials who will do what is needed to be done without expecting something in return. Remember that with the fall elections coming up.
19 comments:
A cold front is coming soon. I hope it actually brings cooler temperatures.
Bob, thanks for keeping everyone planted firmly in reality during the approach of Ike. It seemed like the major news networks were actually hoping the surge would be 25'.
Let's give a shout out to our friends in Cameron Parish because they are going to have to start all over again after three years of post-Rita progress.
I think the only reason the surge was not 20' in Gavleston was because the NHC forcast for a 20' surge was with the eye passing to south west side of Gavleston but the eye went directly over them instead, but on the areas on the northeast side did see that big surge. We just dodged two potential .44 mag bullets with Gustav and Ike. If Ike had hit same area as Gustav the levee's would not have held at all. You can't stop mother nature. I would think the Cat system is fine as it is now, because along with asigning a storm its Cat rating they also include the potential surges etc. that may be also come with that particular storms event.
Bob ROCKS!
the cat sys could look like (cat (A) 1-5) for smaller storms with smaller wind felds and (cat (b)super 1-5)storms with the big wind feld and the deadly surge.storms like ike the wind at low levels due to the size of the storm were 90-110 but upper levels were much higher
the winds with ike went out farther than we have ever seen and the surge went all of the gulf cost from fl to tx i bet the timp of the gulf went down due to ike churning it up
Too complicated for everyone, as it is they don't even understand the basic system now, they would be totally confused with if the NHC started adding letters. Ike for example they said Cat 2 maybe 3 at land fall and gave the possible surge that may come with it along with the windfield yet people still did not listen and may stayed or did not prepare. NHC along with the media and all the others such as the Weather Channel, Accuweather, Weather Underground etc. etc. all days out from land fall explained the windfield and surge dangers. Winds are at different speeds at different levels for pretty much all hurricanes that is why they use the best system which is Cat 1-5 that uses a wind speed measurement at a stated height. People simply need to listen and pay attention.
yes thay do when thay say get out u do that. there not gust saying that to say that and thay need to put more focus a lot more on the surge and not that is has 100mph wind
i ment NCH NEEDS TO focus more on it. the nola people know ,the tx people did not think it will get that bad. that all i have been hearing all day watching ike coverage on Gavleston news
Not sure what info you got prior to the storm but a HUGE amount of time was spent on just the surge from everyone, days out Dr Lyons on weather chan had graphics up show from Brownsville all the way to Florida give potential surge heights and specifically pointing out the areas most in danger. NHC also gave this info along with pretty much everyone else on TV. Days out from land fall just turning on the TV and all you heard was how big the windfield was and the large surge along with the storm that was coming.
Oh yeah... BOB rocks..
Again the NHC did, they even had Ed Rapport 2nd big shot at NHC along with Bill Read the big shot himself on all the major TV stations countless times explaining the surge danger to everyone in Gulf Coast during live broadcasts from the NHC. NHC along all the media and local officials did everything except hold peoples hands during this storm.
well i bet all will get out next time one is on the way, im not even that dum i can take the wind but that surge is whats bad
i'v been in 130-140mph gust it sucks (hurricane hugo) but that surge going up and up and your town is a lake that sucks more
I will be curious to see how long it takes for the NHC to use the now in reasearch, IKE scale (no relation to Hurricane IKE) or "Integrated Kintetic Energy" scale along with the Saffir-Simpson scale. The IKE scale looks at the distribution and structure of the wind fields along with the intensity of a hurricane...as the NHC understands well, that it's not just the intensity of a hurricane that matters to humans.
This scale is not perfect either, as Hurricane IKE had a very high rating on the IKE scale, indicating that the complex wind structures combined with a moderate intensity would be devastating. But, the damage done is a lot more (apparently) than vertical wind structure, intensity and size...Hurricane IKE (according to the IKE and Saffir-Simpson scales) should have had a MUCH larger storm surge, but did not. It's evident that we need to continue studying these storms, and just as models are evolving, our knowledge of storms needs to continue to evolve as well.
FOR NOW, it is imperative that people listen, OVER CALCULATE the possible damages, and just LEAVE if told to. Better that we leave, than to stay and be wrong. Unfortunately, many are now stranded on Galveston island, with no food and lots of water around.
I agree that folks in New Orleans know, but still....I feel that had IKE come to us, many would have stayed. Sad, but true.
Actually, it's very sad...
Stormzz
I totally agree with just about eveything said here. People definately need to pay more attention and follow the warnings of their government officials. When they say over and over again that you need to leave, then leave. Dont stay behind and see what happens. That is what happened for Katrina and look what happened. Many lives were lost. I just pray for everyone that was in the path of this storm and hope they are ok. Stormz I have the same worry for people here in our area about leaving again if the time comes. Many people have had bad experiences evacuating and say they will never do it again. I just hope it is frustration coming out. I can remember for Ivan it took 14 hours to get 4 hours away and then for Katrina it took just as long or longer to get out. But with Katrina I was so glad I made the drive. And I will continue to leave for the safety of my family.
I read a little about the "IKE" scale on weather underground, but was confused on something- It appears as if they are just using the wind speed and size of TS force or > winds to get their rating.
Wouldn't other factors like ocean floor topography, water depth, coastal land make up (say Louisiana Wetlands/Swamps vs something like Gulf Shores, AL sandy beaches) and speed of the moving storm create variables which would make the "IKE" scale differ depending on where the storm made landfall?
Either way, I think it is very interesting and deserves further research.
Yep would think all those factors come into play but then again I think the basic scale they use now is the best, if they start factoring in all that stuff for the Cat rating then the Cat rating would be changing constantly at the storm moves across the Atlantic the Gulf and then ocean depths and potential land fall confusing the crap out of people. As it is now they don't listen I doubt they would listen at all with a ever changing storm strength rating.
True Caveman- I think it is much easier to say "Catagory 4 with a 20ft storm surge" as opposed to "Catagory 4 with an IKE of 4.3 if it stays to the east of the cone, or a Cat 4 with an IKE of 3.9 if it stays to the west" people would have to buy charts to interpret what the IKE means.. Plain english is better to explain the threat...
I still think the IKE theory is intresting and could provide (with more research) better understanding into predicting intensity... Maybe a good PhD paper for someone-LOL
I would like to know everyones thoughts on the rest of hurricane season?!?! Do you guys think we'll have anymore storms to worry about??
Not an "expert" but I would guess we won't see anymore Gulf storms...
Bob ROCKS!
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