First off, let me thank you all for your wonderful comments...I read them all. My opinion about past comments deals with people with limited background in meteorology making predictions regarding storm movement & intensity forecasts that 1) have little scientific connection (Mother of all storms, Katrina's brother etc) and 2) tend to scare/frighten people into reacting from fear not reason. Don't like me? That's fine...just explain what you didn't like me saying...then we can have meaningful discussion. This blog is about sharing ideas & concerns so let me begin.
Strong NE wind shear is weakening Ike today and he'll likely only be a Cat. 1 later today. Recent runs of computer models continue to show a shift back to the south for the track of Ike. This does concern me BUT that doesn't mean Ike will ever be our problem. We need several things to happen so Ike goes elsewhere. Ike still could follow Hanna's track and turn to the north. As Dr. Masters said in his column this morning, that is not likely. More likely is Ike will hit somewhere near the north coast of Cuba and then turn into the Florida Keys tracking up Florida's West coast. That scenario would keep the storm well east of us. Ike could also keep going SW over Cuba and end up in the Yucatan next week. Again, that would keep Ike from us. There is a chance Ike could miss Cuba and go thru the Fl. Straits into the Gulf. RIGHT NOW it appears westerly upper winds would turn Ike to the east BEFORE reaching us. The chances for Ike coming near us appear low (10%). As always, I'll let you know if that changes. IF Ike doesn't turn and comes right at us we're talking into the Gulf NEXT TUESDAY and here sometime NEXT THURSDAY. Obviously, that's way too soon to get nervous. Let's enjoy this weekend and hopefully a Saint's victory this Sunday. I, like you, really don't have another hurricane event in me for this year. We need those cold fronts!
24 comments:
"A second trough of low pressure would then turn Ike north, resulting in a n eventual landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Texas. This is the forecast of the ECMWF and GFS models. My current thinking is along these lines:" - Dr. Jeff Masters
I don't know from his statement seems like he feels this storm could be headed for the Gulf, and once again like I stated for Gustav, we are right in the middle! The European model is placing Ike around the same area as Gustav at landfall and the other models are starting to somewhat agree. If Ike does hit southern Florida I could see a good chance of Ike getting into the gulf because little ole Florida esp the swampy parts will not kill Ike as was seen with the strengthening of Fay over Florida.
Caveman,
Why don't you get your own blog, since you are such an expert? We are here to read Mr. Breck's opinion on the situation. Since your opinion is so different and you appear to be such an expert on the matter, why don't you take it elsewhere? I'm here to read the blog of the person with 30+ years experience. I'm not here to read your comments that always seems to contradict what the expert thinks. Thanks so much.
-Marielle
Caveman called Gustav pretty much dead on. Experts had him going to Florida of all places. Just tell'n ya be prepared because as the days go you will start to believe in Caveman more and more.
ar , Dear Bob Breck , you are my hero.
My mother almost married Nash Roberts!. My father was jealous. When you came to town Bob, my daddy always said you were the best.
Your weather forcecast are intelligent and 9 or ouf 10 time accurate. YOU should be the head of the National Hurricane Center! (But we are glad you are here in New Orleans!
Sharon Murphy
Bob,
Several days ago I watched Chris Franklin talking about Northshore river flooding. He said it was a result of water being pushed inward from Lake Pontchartrain. Also supporting this view was Kim Holden, who went along with what Chris said. I hope you have corrected him.
Thank you so much for your calm and professional attitude. The fact is that hurricane season is a reality for us, as are bad levees and global warming etc etc, but we have to learn to take these things in stride. Your pragmatism and no-nonsense approach is very helpful in this regard. Whatever happens we will deal with it, it's just reassuring to have someone with your demeanor keeping us informed.
A question: what w/the warming of the Gulf etc can you envision hurricane season's dates being extended some day? I know I for one look forward to the end of it but I can just imagine it moving further away, given the state we've put Mother Nature in. Thoughts?
Thanks again - I am your biggest fan!
Ok, finally have caught up on some sleep...Bob, how do you do it? :)
Wow...so many people want to argue with Bob...he doesn't know what's up 5 days from now, NOR DOES ANYONE ELSE!!!!
I do not wish to reveal my identity as I am NOT supposed to be on here, lol! But, I am a forecaster with several years experience at the NHC and the Slidell NWS, now in the private sector.
The weather is NOT something interpretable!! IT is a hard fast science, driven by upper level steering currents and simply FACTS are reported. We have models that are well studied, and initialized with data as we believe it will unfold....but still, it is our best guess. Bob has been accurate in presenting FACT as we know it...NOT a guess.
I believe we heard from Caveman, landfall on the Texas/LA border. Well, no, it didn't make landfall there! Hundreds of miles off is NOT close. Dr Max Mayfield predicted 5 days early, the LA/Miss line, which was WAY closer...but at 5 days, ONLY a guess based on trying to predict what would happen.
Please do not get caught up in he said/she said...the only RIGHT course for a Hurricane is the one that it takes, and anyone living here should know that they are unpredictable and have a mind of their own.
As for Chris being wrong about the rivers, he was NOT wrong. Many of these rivers, including the Tchefuncte, drain into the Lake. Because of water levels being slightly higher, combined with high rainfall on the Northshore, those rivers crested at above normal levels. He was correct.
IF you do not understand, please ask Bob to explain. But please stop attacking the guy and putting panic scenarios out there. IF Ike looks like he's coming, Bob will give you the latest. SIT TIGHT AND WAIT!!
Please all, be prepared for different scenarios. Know what you need, and when you would stay or leave....and LISTEN to authorities. They are better informed than anyone who participates in giving their opinion on this blog.
Thanks Bob, for reaching out your hand to the people, and your devotion to the safety and people of this area.
Hey Caveman, tell the whole story. If you want to quote Dr. Masters he list a hit on the Gulf Coast - outside of Florida - at 10%. These are the same odds for this storm to curve away from the US and have no impact on anyone. 10%. I'll take those odds. Clearly your intent is to scare rather than inform. Thanks, but no thanks.
question for Bob...
Might there be/will there be a ridge or some such near the central gulf coast? Also, is a track similar to Hurricane Rita very probable?
Don't panic - but the Computron 6000 predicts upper level highs will cause significant strengthening. Not sure why. It could be an anomaly caused by a significant decrease in enthusiasm for the next Eddie Murphy movie.
When can we start talking about cool fronts!!!!
Are we going to have a cold winter this year???
Storm -
Mr. Trotter wasn't exactly a tropic minded MIC... Ed at the NHC is not much better.
"It is also possible that the trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to turn Ike to the north, and that the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico. A second trough of low pressure would then turn Ike north later in the week, resulting in an eventual landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Texas. This is the forecast of the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models. It is too early to speculate where on the Gulf Coast Ike would hit." Dr Jeff Masters
EVERONE is in for a big surprise tommorrow on forecast track, Stormz don't even make me quote your postings on Gustav...
Caveman,
If I remember correctly, you said TX/LA borders is where landfall would be. You may talk about the "expert" (and I certainly hope it isn't Bob) but for 2-3 days when Gustav was in the Gulf of Mexico there was a model that still had it turning north to FL. So, take your "expertise" somewhere else because all you seem to be doing is instilling fear in some people who read this blog who just might think that you really know what you are talking about because you use the jargon. Bob Breck has done a fantastic job with the information he is given, his gut feelings, and the meterological expertise he has obtained throught his schooling and career. The National Hurricane Center might be getting better at predicting storms from 5 days out, but there is always the possibility for something to happen that can cause that track to change and completely go against anything Bob is saying on t.v.(maybe that is the reason for so many models?!?)
We love your sane, sensible approach to the situation. We live in New Orleans in the Winter (and watch you every night),and Northern California in the summer, so your blog is a godsend to us while we are watching events from 2400 miles away.
Thanks,
Jim & Robin Biondi
Uptown New Orleans/Nice CA
thanks Bob, for being so reasonable. Caveman do you always talk about yourself in the third person? Are you royalty?
You obvious have a person problem and vendetta against Mayor Nagin. be a man and say that and don't keep beating around the bush about "Mother of all storms". First of all many talented people with much more education and expertise at The National Hurricane center said at one time that storm was on pace to be that "mother of all storms" Secondle do you want to take responsibility in the lives of all the citizens of New Orleans that maybe would not have evacuated had he and many other elected officials not used such strong language? You try so hard to be the smartest cookie in the world and go against grain of all other forecasters. You like them were all over the place with your predictions (guesses). Sometimes the science is right and sometimes its wrong but you don't have the lives of people in the balance. Why don't you just stick to forecase to the best of your ability and stop trying to be a maverick especially when people lives hang in the balance. But I am quite sure if that storm had stayed strong and hit the city you would have criticized the elected officials for not getting people out! Because thats just the kind of guy that you are.
You obvious have a person problem and vendetta against Mayor Nagin. be a man and say that and don't keep beating around the bush about "Mother of all storms". First of all many talented people with much more education and expertise at The National Hurricane center said at one time that storm was on pace to be that "mother of all storms" Secondle do you want to take responsibility in the lives of all the citizens of New Orleans that maybe would not have evacuated had he and many other elected officials not used such strong language? You try so hard to be the smartest cookie in the world and go against grain of all other forecasters. You like them were all over the place with your predictions (guesses). Sometimes the science is right and sometimes its wrong but you don't have the lives of people in the balance. Why don't you just stick to forecase to the best of your ability and stop trying to be a maverick especially when people lives hang in the balance. But I am quite sure if that storm had stayed strong and hit the city you would have criticized the elected officials for not getting people out! Because thats just the kind of guy that you are.
Y'all SERIOUSLY: ignore it and it will go away (re: Caveman - a truer screen name was never writ). Because this is a place for reasonable conversation about our weather, not a place for bossy arm wrestling. So let's just not answer or argue with CMan and only comment on Bob's blog - which is what we're here for.
And I for one am totally furious with the way our elected officials continue to disrespect their constituency and frankly if Bob wants to write about it then so be it - it is his blog, after all.
On that note: Riley saying anyone not evacuating found outside their house will be ARRESTED is UNCONSTITUTIONAL. Nagin saying anyone staying can die for all he cares (which is the gist of his "you better have an ax and you better not expect us to help you" statement) proves his heartlessness. Lord give us strength and courage to continue to forgive such affronts to our human dignity! Wouldn't we all feel better if the Army Corps did their jobs, if funds for repairing our levees and wetlands finally made their way to us? In the meantime
solace us, Bob! Long live Bob!
"Strong NE wind shear is weakening Ike today and he'll likely only be a Cat. 1 later today." Bob
Caveman strong, Caveman only posts factural info, don't get mad at Caveman when things actually do turn out the way Caveman believes the will. C'mon Bob is cool, but look he puts down Caveman for trying to forecast a storm yet as he has stated in the above post he believes Ike will weak'n to a Cat 1 later today? Look it is 7pm and guess what ... Ike is still a Cat 3! Bob is only good at forecasts which are just 48hrs out or less. Like I have said numerous times listen to Bob when a storm is close. Not trying to scare anyone, simply posting facts and data from the experts. You guys are just mad because you actually are scared and realize what may be in the future. I'm sure Bob is WORRIED about Ike more now he just can't say that.
FYI
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/weather/
Go to this site, click on the left in red the GFDL model run for Ike, at the top scroll your cursor across the blue hours and watch where this most model which is one of the more accurate models takes Ike.
I think that most people are blaming the wrong sources. The state and city of NO had a chance to build extremely high, steel-enforced levees after Hurricane Betsy in 1965. What did they do? Nothing. The point is, there should he no need for evacuations or panic.
For the past 40 plus years, the state and city has been more interested in building places like Jazzland, using money for frivolous purposes instead of building a better levee system so that people wouldn't have to leave even during a category 5 storm. They managed to accomplish this in Amsterdam, so why not here?
Bottom line - State and local officials as well as the army corp of engineers brought the levee breaches during Katrina on themselves, while the citizens have to pay the price. And we will continue to pay the price until these folks get off their duffs and make a commitment to see to it that there never should be a need for any evacuations to worry about.
Nah the Army Corp are not to blame, they did not build the levees and then tell everyone to move and settle in New Orleans, people insisted on living below sea-level and the corp simply tried to help out and build levees to try and protect people. Cat 5 will prob never hit landfall, Cat 4 would be rare hitting landfall, they enteract too much with land to do that.
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