The well advertised upper air pattern shift is taking place with the deep eastern trough finally departing replaced by a more zonal(west to east) flow for the rest of this week. That's a good thing as the bitter Arctic Air is reloading over Alaska & Northwest Canada. It will pour into & across the northern tier of states but should stay well to the north of the Gulf coast. We should stay much warmer(70+) into next week, but the cold air is likely to return for the first week of February.
With warmer air at this time of the year, it usually means lots of sea fog. We could see that as soon as Saturday but certainly by Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday.
5 comments:
Wow! Its been a while since the Global Models have been in such disagreement after just 3 days. Both nearly opposite. The GFS makes us warm and in a Zonal pattern then after the end of the month then makes us cold perhaps another freeze for the Greater NOLA area around the 5th of February, with 2 severe weather events one around the 31st and another one, possibly worse with a heavy rainfall threat included on around the 7th of Feb.The GFS isn't the most correct model but it has been consistant with this solution so I can't discount it.No intrestingly enough the European Model takes us right out of this Zonal Pattern next week by developing and anchoring a ridge in the west by Thursday next week and another deep trough for the deep south puting us right back in the cold and dry weather again. I can't ignore this soulution either because the European model has been very accurate latley. So those are the 2 scenarios of what maybe happeneing here over the next 2 weeks or so.
One thing I've learned is NEVER trust the long range of ANY model when they flip-flop run to run...and that's what's happening. In the short term, the big challenge is...1)will this next front mid-day Saturday even make it to us and 2) if it does, how deep will we get into the cold air? Plus, how bad will the fog be on Saturday morning? Long term(10-14 days) is fun to talk about, but short term(1-3 days) is more important.
Onlyreal,
I must admit I am very impressed with your ability to not only read the models, but you have good recognition of trends in model performance. The European does seem to have a better idea of our pattern. I think we will stay in this progressive pattern and will be headed back to what we saw in late Nov. and early December.
I think that the front will reach us if not pass us up because the cold to our north has built up more than expected.
It now seems the Euro was more correct than the GFS as usual predicting the cooler weather durring the second half of the week. But it wont just be cool but nasty with periods of rain.Also it now looks like the cold front won't just make it here on friday but it will be a strong cold front. Expect a round of thunderstorms prior to frontal passage.looks like next weekend will be cool and dry.With a warming trend to follow.
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