Yesterday's cool front finally swept away the Gulf muggies bringing us closer to our "normals" for January. We have 2 more beautiful days before more fronts start coming. I mentioned several days ago that the second week in January would be much colder and computer models are showing a major shift in the jet stream from the West coast to the East coast by early next week. It appears freezing temperatures will certainly cover the Northshore (25-30) on Wednesday morning with the Southshore (30-35) near freezing. Cold enough to snow? Yea...but models indicate northerly flow surface & aloft resulting in no moisture to work with so a repeat of Dec. 11th is unlikely. That cold pattern is likely to last into week 3 of January.
In the short term, we have 2 beautiful days coming up considering what folks are enduring farther up north. This is why we live here and put up with hurricanes. Our next front arrives Saturday morning bringing our next rain threat. We should clear out and cool down some on Sunday before the BIG CHILL arrives late Monday. Heavy coat weather is coming back!
FYI...We have received more rain(5.88") in the first 7 days of January than what we average (5.87")for the whole month.
10 comments:
Bob,
Do you think we need to take precautions for a hard freeze on the south shore?
Hehehe saw this coming a while back.Long before the GFS&Euro did.
It sure was discusting waking up to go to school in 70 degree weather in JANUARY!
Onlyreal,
If you're not looking at computer models, then what are you doing, guessing?
Storm,I have my way at looking in the long range...
This is what I said December 19th at 4:04 pm on "Post surgery day 5" I knew this pattern shift would come eventualy,
"The pattern is modifying and i believe a shift in the east as the ridge in the Gulf breaks down.
Now I do not believe it will go away just shift to the east . Sign of it well look to Alaska where they were somewhat warming but now are building cold air again .
That I believe will trasend .Another words i believe it is a sign that another ridge in the west ;maybe not as strong as the one we had earlier but enough to give the east what it needed to get the cold more especially the south.
as a result cold from west to east nationwide cold.as seen in 79 , there will of corse be a battle wetween the two as always but for the most part the reprieve the south has seen will go away.
I don't think there will be alot of moisture to play with after this happens but if it is it will be in the form of coastal low pressure developing in the gulf and riding the fringes of the ridge and cold and of corse going up the east coast.
keep in mind none of the models are on to this yet .the Gfs will if it has'nt already begun to go about it stupid little back and forth thing as it will get a hint to it first.
the shift should be evident in the nam as it is shifting to the south and almost never does that unless there is a change in pattern comming . Usually it shifts to the west and north as the runs get closer to and event .
Now that I have stuck my head out on a limb by saying this I hope it actually does. 3 or 4 days and the Gfs will be catching the hint."
By the way I dont guess even though my my knowledge of weather is Amature, I put high effort into my forecasts which usualy means it is mostly correct. Remember im 14 but I learn more about the weather everyday.
But Forecasts are predictions so I guess you can call any forecast a guess...
Seems as though cold weather will continue to dominate the eastern section of the country. By late next week the GFS shows a nearly 1060mb surface arctic high advecting down from Canada. It shows this high coming towards the deep south as a 500mb longwave trough sinks deeply southward with 1000mb-500mb thickness of 540dm and 850mb temps of 0C In our area. This in combination with low level moisture advection from the south could reproduce another snow event for the deep south as far south as New Orleans again as indicated by both the GFS 6z and 12z as well as the DGEX.
Bob,
What are your thoughts on the cold as it comes south. The models seem to be backing off of the real cold getting this far south. Do you agree with the models?
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