Perhaps you've noticed I rarely use precipitation probabilities. The past 2 days were classic examples. 1) The public doesn't understand them & 2) they often overplay rain chances. Probabilities are POINT forecasts...which means if there is a 40% chance for rain, that means AT YOUR LOCATION. But how many of us stay at one location all day? We go to the store, go to church, go to work etc. As soon as you start moving around, you increase your rain chances. Most folks don't understand that concept.
If you watched or listened to the weather forecast for this weekend, rain chances were 60-80%, which technically verified. However, there were many hours of dry weather. A better forecast would have been..."there is 100% chance for some rain during the over night & early morning hours with little chance for rain (20%) during the daylight hours." Specificity counts. Beware of 50% chance for rain. That doesn't tell you much.
2 comments:
I look at a 30% chance of rain, as a 70% chance that we won't see rain.
I don't like that ominous patch of 80 degree water south of the SE La coast its awfully early for that...
Post a Comment