Caribbean Disturbance Could Develop...

The strongest tropical disturbance so far this season has developed right where climatology says they should form in June, the Western Caribbean Sea. This system is currently in an area of low wind shear so the potential for it to get better organized is there. With strong(50 knots) NE shear over the Northern Gulf, if this system does develop, it's likely to drift into the extreme SE Gulf and then turn to the NE bringing heavy rains to central & south Florida Sunday & Monday. The old upper high that brought us the extreme heat earlier this week has pulled to our West & North, but the circulation around it from the NE should keep any tropical activity away from us. The 2 scenarios are 1) the system moves across the Yucatan tomorrow into the Southern Gulf and heads into Mexico far south of Brownsville or 2) VIPIR takes the system northward over Cuba and into the southern Gulf turning it into Florida south of Tampa before moving up the east coast. Currently there is no reason for us to get nervous. Will update again over the weekend.