Another July Front? You kiddin' me?

For the past 4-6 weeks, there has been an OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN in the upper air circulation over North America. This has resulted in a huge heat wave over the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast while the Great Lakes & NE are still waiting for any summer heat. Computer models are shifting the hot, upper high westward during the next 5 days while again deepening the east coast trough. This will do 2 things to finally increase our rain chances. 1) As the highs moves away, we will get under the "ring of fire" pattern and 2) another cool front will drop down (might even push off our coast on Saturday?) bringing much higher rain chances with it. Since we are nearly a foot below normal/average on our yearly rainfall, let's hope Mother Nature helps us out. (have you seen your water bill lately?)

As we hit mid July, almost on cue the Tropical Atlantic off of Africa is getting more active. No cause for alarm, but the longer range models finally bring the Atlantic Ridge(Bermuda High) northward back to where it belongs at this time of the year. That will allow the tropical easterlies to return to Florida & the Gulf meaning our "typical"(40%+) daily rain chances will return. It also means any disturbance that might form would travel around the southern (bottom) side of the Bermuda High and get into the Gulf. This usually happens every 4-5 days. Obviously the key factor here will be the shear over the Gulf when & if a storm comes. As another front pushes into the Gulf on Saturday, we'll need to keep an eye on any development much like what happened in 1983 (Alicia) Right now, the tropics remain quiet.