Satellite pictures tonight indicate Tropical Storm Erika is getting stronger, but has come to a halt out in the Atlantic. NHC believes this lack of motion is temporary and a WNW track should resume shortly. You seldom see NHC say..."confidence in the forecast track is low" !!! Wow. One thing near certain...Erika cannot come here as long as the strong westerly shear stays over the northern Gulf...and all models show that continuing into next week. In fact, VIPIR brings another cold front thru late Sunday. My thinking is Erika is gonna be one of those strange storms that NHC will have trouble forecasting, both track & intensity. In fact she might be a hurricane before morning as she shows a big burst of convection tonight. That intensity shouldn't last if she heads westward where the upper shear is strong.
As I've mentioned before, IF we see a tropical threat, it'll come from an old front down in the Gulf. VIPIR continues to try to form a low down in the Gulf late this week. We'll see.
4 comments:
Didn't think she would be a hurricane anytime soon if at all esp over night... if she does make it to hurricane status in the next few days just a weak babycane..
As off right now the westerlies look like they will be remain very strong across the Northern Gulf of Mexico through the next 10 days. If Erika even makes an attempt to get into the Gulf she would likely get destroyed. Nonetheless I will keep a close eye on it in case anything changes in the coming days. Other than that, ehh Bob, Things are looking good as far as Hurricane Season goes. If we can just stay in this general pattern for a few more weeks we should be safe from any hurricanes that will cause major evacuations in our area. AND if we stay in this pattern into winter it'll be a cold one (colder than last year) and we could be talking about the white stuff a few times.
ONLYREAL
Predicting snow already?
If we stay in this pattern, I would believe a couple of snows. This summer has been an incredible summer so far, and I am loving Fall coming. But who knows, whatever the weather guys talk about might change and then the warm will come. I just feel almost blessed by this year's summer though.
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