More record heat is likely Thursday and Friday before a front arrives early on Saturday. Our VIPIR computer model pushes the front down into the Gulf by midday ending the rain well before the LSU/Florida game Sat. night. Other models don't move the front that fast & keep some rain around even into Sunday. I'm going with VIPIR and LSU !
Henri has been downgraded to a depression tonight. Long range computer models finally return the east coast trough over the next 2 weeks. We'll have one front push thru early Sat., another stronger one on Tuesday with even colder fronts coming the following week. You'll need you sweaters & jackets in 10-14 days. It's about time!
16 comments:
Huzzah!
Yea I'm not worried about Hentri. He is being torn apart by shear and he is moving into an area of upper level convergence(subsidence) and the downward pulse in MJO will only enhance the subsidence. Even if Henri manages to survive that most of the models push Henri to the SW under a building ridge off the East Coast and drive it straight into Hispaniola. That should kill the system or whatever is left at the surface once it gets there.
ONLYREAL
Thanks, Bob!
please keep blogging..forever..thanks, bob
Yes I know Accuweather is full of Idiots but this was a good read. I think you will like it Bob.
SATURDAY 8 am
I'D LIKE TO TAKE A TRIP TO DENVER-- By: WAYLON JENNINGS
No you wouldnt. The 18 degrees this morning is the coldest SO EARLY by 4 degrees! Cheyenne had coldest so early by 5 degrees. Now here is some food for thought... If it were the warmest so late by 4 degrees or 5 degrees, what do you think national headlines would be saying about it?
And there is no way that you would here me say, aha global cooling. What I will say is that when you look at the big picture, such events as coldest so early in places, or most snow earliest in places like New Orleans, have to get one to say, now wait a minute, why is an extreme the other way happening when its supposed to be going the opposite way.
And that is why "climate change" which is the most disingenuous term I have ever heard, has taken over. Do you understand that there is really no such thing as climate "change" climate is the sum total of weather pattern over a given period of time. Do these people really think that this planet with its configuration and reliance upon uneven heating can have anything but changing weather patterns? So Climate change is redundant, for weather is always changing and repeat patterns over many many years make up the climate.
Its funny.. lets take me in golf... I was shooting about 115 at the start of this year.... Now I am shooting around 100. If I continue to improve. will I eventually shoot 18? Of course not. But what AGW people want you to believe is that somehow, the earth with its limited input of energy is going to continue to move away from where it wants to stay, which by the way no one has really defined. If you cornered Al Gore and said, give me the perfect climate for the earth.. he would shoot himself in the foot as any good open minded liberal thinker ( I am talking in the classic sense, not todays connotation) would say, well if thats what you want here, what if that causes something there. And what about people who want it to something else there and yo are saying it should be this. Its called playing God.
So as we continue to see evidence that there is still some cold left to the "climate" I will again remind my reader that small things mean something. We have mets today that are arguing that some events are "proof" of global warming. Well everytime an event occurs that isnt warmer, isnt that proof of global normalcy.And if we want to play the game that way... what of Denver and Cheyenne this morning... isnt that proof of global cooling.
I will close on a humorous note.. Sometimes when I hear the logic behind all this it reminds me of the court scene in Animal House where the Otter character got up and through his logic, argued that throwing out Delta house was an attack on the American way of life..
Continue to the next post below for part 2...
Part 2...
"..... But you can't hold a whole fraternity responsible for the behavior of a few sick, individuals ( extreme weather events..for examples). For if you do, then shouldn't we blame the whole fraternity system? And if the whole fraternity system is guilty, then isn't this an indictment of our educational institutions in general? I put it to you, Greg ... isn't this an indictment of our entire American society? Well, you can do what you want to us, but we're not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America! Gentlemen!"
Think about it,.. the guy plays the ultimate victim card. 30 years ago we were dying of laughter at things like that. now well I am using it as a way of showing how people can use warming events.
Its warm and dry in the southeast, doesnt that say that there is a cause for it being warm and dry. And isnt that the ridge that is causing it. And isnt that ridge big... And isnt a big ridge a sign of it getting warm. I submit to you the world is warmer. What its raining too much. Dont we need water vapor for rain? And when it rains alot doesnt that mean there is alot of water vapor. And isnt warming something that can enhance water vapor. So that means the earth is warmer. What that hurricane caused more damage than one 50 years ago.. Aha it had to be stronger, thats global warming, So by using warm events..isnt that an indictment of the whole climate system itself? See how we can do that.
Otter would be proud.
So now we are using an Animal House philosophy to support the global warming argument. . Well I submit to my fellow weather nuts, I am not going to have the weather dragged down to such things by people who think the earth is heading for a fiery abyss! not when I see Denver, where my beloved Phillies are forced to go to play baseball, a warm weather sport apparently buying into the global warming notion that we can play into November, having it coldest temps so early.
I will not sit idly buy and allow the Animal House argument to take over,. In fact, I will use it myself, if need be (lol)
But you can see what I am saying.. One can tie anything together it they truly want too. But is what we are seeing now a sign of global cooling? It is if you want to look hard enough to find a link, because anyone can see any link they want.. on the golf course or at breakfast too if thats what you are eating.
Food for thought.
ciao for now ***
Look there is Onlyreal...he's in Pre-Law....I thought he was in Pre-Med.... Pre-Law, Pre-Med..whats the difference...
Gotta love that movie Onlyreal, its a classic...you made your point very well...and entertaining too..
That wasn't written by me Bourbon it was written by somebody from Accuweather. But I fully understand every thing that was written and I do agree with the text.
Anybody seen Henri's remnants sneaking by just north of Hispaniola? Ex Henri's 850mb Vorticity Maximum has increased over the past day. His satellite presentation has also gradually become a bit more circular. The remnant low has been moving WSW over the past day and we need to watch for regeneration once the low gets past 70W where it may find a somewhat more marginal upper level environment with decreased Easterly Shear and more diffluent winds aloft and especially if it eventually finds itself in the Caribbean where the Ocean Heat Content is ridiculously hot, but it needs to avoid Hispaniola first. Just something to keep an eye on.
Sorry Onlyreal, I got so caught up in the story I didnt realize it wasn't your words.
Its ok Bourbon,
I wish I was intelligent enough to write like the Author of that article. I knew anyone who read it would like it. I wish the Saints would play today to brighten up my mood after LSU's loss last night.
Today looks like a wet one as the cool front that moved through Friday returns to the Area from the South as a warm front.
I still say we will not get cold fronts till November....
I know know about that Bourbon. The models are now showing the dome of High Pressure off the South-East Coast sliding to the desert South-West during the work week allowing the return of the East Coast trough by the latter part of the week. This would allow a strong cold front to move into the area by next Friday. If this plays out we will have beautiful weather with 50's for Lows and 60's for highs next weekend.
Lets hope that forecast pans out Onlyreal...We have big plans this coming weekend....that would be nice weather to have for it.
Its high confidence. We won't have that damned Southwesterly Flow Aloft this time around to stall the fronts over our area. This time a deep trough will allow us to have Northerly Flow Aloft which will push that front right through the area and causing it to penetrate deep into the Gulf. I anticipate this weekend will be nice. Saturday could start off a little cloudy but things should clear out for Saturday afternoon. Something to watch for is how the models trend with the strength of the front. Both the GFS and Euro Models trended colder between 00Z and 12Z runs. The 12Z GFS brought upper 30's into the extreme northern Florida Parishes and 40's for the South Shore. Wouldn't that be nice?
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