For the 1st time this season, the REAL Arctic cold is showing up in Alaska. Fairbanks high was -16 with their low -23. Other interior locations were 25 to 35 below zero. I feel relieved that the polar bears have their ice back. My experience tells me "sometimes" the Alaskan cold heads our way in 10-14 days. Historically, our 1st freeze is the last week in November or 1st week in December, depending on which side of Lake P. you live. Today's 80 degree warmth makes it easy to live in the Gulf South at this time of the year. But you should get ready for the chill as it's only a matter of time but we'll have to deal with some "real" cold. Last year's 1st freeze was Dec. 5th (23) in Slidell and Dec. 8th (29) in Kenner.
Tonight's cold front will bring back sweaters and jackets tomorrow, but this is not a real strong front. Another front comes on Friday, but it too will not have real cold air behind it. Until then, dress for some fine feeling Fall weather.
9 comments:
Duh...my bad. Those 1st freezes I mentioned were from 2006 NOT 2008. Last year's 1st frreze in Slidell happened on Nov. 16th (32) while MSY - Kenner didn't get to freezing until Jan. 16, 2009 (32). It was a mild Winter here. My gut tells me, despite El Nino, that won't happen this Winter
My thoughts on the next couple of days… enjoy!
The line of showers associated with the Cold front is moving out as quickly as they moved in. The Cold front enters the area this evening winds will suddenly increase from the NW and a much colder and drier air-mass will begin to advect into Southeast Louisiana.
When you walk out of the door tomorrow morning you will definitely need your jackets. Temperatures will be in the 50's and with blustery winds out of the Northwest it will feel like it is in 40's. Temperatures should recover to near 60F tomorrow afternoon as the Sun begins to break through the cloud cover. Also, winds will begin to subside tomorrow evening as High Pressure begins to settle in the area. Tomorrow night will likely be the coldest night of the season so far, at least on the North-shore. With clear skies and light winds Radiational cooling will be in full effect. Temperatures should fall into the Mid 40's on the South-shore and could fall as low as 37F on the North-shore. In my opinion patchy frost is a possibility on the North-shore tomorrow night.
Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday with Partly Cloudy skies but will be slightly warmer. By Wednesday Evening, however, the Surface High that brought us this taste of fall will begin to slide to the East of the area and winds will shift to the South.
On Thursday, the effects of the Southerly Flow will become noticeable as Highs will be a good 10F warmer than the previous day. The Southerly winds will also advect ample moisture into the region. Meanwhile, a strong Upper Level Disturbance will be traversing the Rocky Mountains.
Friday the Upper Level disturbance will enter the Southern Plains and this will cause surface Cyclogenesis to occur in the western Gulf of Mexico. As the Upper Level Disturbance slides into the Lower Mississippi River valley and takes on a negative tilt, the Surface Low will begin to eject out of the Gulf towards the North-Central Gulf Coast. With it, there will be a large rain shield. Most of the rain will be on the Light to Moderate side but will be steady with heavier cells embedded. The majority of the rain currently looks to fall on Friday Night with lingering showers into Saturday Morning, and clearing out by Saturday evening. In my opinion, flooding will not be an issue because the system does look to move in and out in a short period of time. I will have another update as the event draws closer.
ONLYREAL
You could be right about the cold, Bob. Both the ECMWF and GFS show a nice Trough diving into the Ohio River Valley in about 8-10 days. If that is correct it could be our 1st shot for some "real cold", and just in time for Thanksgiving. Maybe we won't need the AC after all.
ONLYREAL....You mentioned sunspots the other day. Is there a website that you have that discusses the subject and has updates??
Thanks, Greg
ONLYREAL,
Do you have a website that talks about the sunspots and cycles??
Thanks Greg
so someone said it was soppose to snow in feb who was that was it you only real or someone else just jokin bout it?
Temperatures fell into the -40's in Alaska this morning...
For info on sunspot cycles, do a Google search...SUNSPOT CYCLES...and it'll take you to a NASA site.
The CFS model showed it snowing here in February, Whodat. It was more of a joke. The only reason it was noteworthy is because it had it snowing the day after the Superbowl, the joke being if the Saints went to the Superbowl it would snow here. Take such long range forecasts with a grain of salt.
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