Sunday, November 8, 2009
IDA in Gulf...Where will she Go?
Ida finally became a hurricane last night and has slowly strengthened to a Cat. 2 with winds now at 100 mph. Looking at satellite loops this afternoon, it appears to me Ida is moving more northward than NHC is forecasting. That would be good for us as the farther to our east the better. However, as she morphs to more a winter-like storm later tonight and tomorrow, even tho her wind speeds will decrease, her wind field will increase. What I expect here is towards daybreak Monday, winds will be 20-30 mph with higher gusts to 40 +. Obviously stronger winds will occur along the coast. Little if any rain until late tonight with 1-3" falling between dawn and dusk on Monday. Some flooding problems tomorrow with tides 2-4 feet above normal. Watch the wind direction tomorrow. IF it stays east of ESE, the center of IDA is coming closer and impacts will be greater. IF it turns more northerly or NE , IDA is turning more towards the FLA coast and we'll see less wind, rain & lower tides. This to me will be more like Hurricane Juan (1985) or Hurricane Cindy (2005). If we were in September, impacts would be much greater. I'm counting on those cooler water temps. to knock down Ida's current intensity. Next update this evening.
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18 comments:
I hope it's NOT like Juan or Cindy because they came right over us! And I thought hurricane season was over with for us?
Appreciate the update Bob
We are on pensacola beach. We are told no danger. Should we leave?
The only thing I'm worried about is where will jim cantore be?
Geez CAVEMAN, a man of your intelligence should know that quote was not mine by by a Meteorology Professor at Florida State. Even with this storm 2009 will be the quietest season since 1982. What you think C-Man? IDA going to Lake Charles?
LOL Bob! No comment on Caveman...
I have been keep a close eye on Ida all day and I do not like what I am seeing. The Category 2 Hurricane with 105mph winds has defied all odds and has become a formidable hurricane. Ida has not followed the rules since its anatomy and is still not. The storm is remaining well organized and is moving to the North-West at 12mph according to the National Hurricane Center but looking at satellite imagery it appears to be moving a bit faster than 12mph. This gain in forward speed is bad news because it gives Ida less time to weaken over the cooler water that covers the Northern Gulf of Mexico which allows the storm to maintain its momentum, this allows only less time the area over High Pressure over Florida less to weaken and retrograde East, and it means that Hurricane Ida will likely beat the Cold Front that was supposed to block it from coming here in the first place. All of these factors lead to Ida's track to be further West than originally forecasted and I anticipate Ida to pass very close to the Mississippi River Delta Monday evening as a Category 1 Hurricane. Here in the New Orleans Metro the worst weather will likely arrive here Monday Night. Expect heavy rainfall with total's being around 3-5 inches. Also, expect strong winds with sustained sustained winds in excess of 35-45mph with gusts up to 60mph possible Tuesday Night, these winds are capable of displacing unsecured lawn property and can snap branches off of trees so please take the necessary precautions. The worst of the weather should be over with by Tuesday Night with cold frontal passage.
ONLYREAL
ONLYREAL...Agree with forward speed, however, WV loops show a real push to the ENE over the western Gulf that shud reach IDA BEFORE it gets too close to the mouth of the River. This afternoon's VIPIR run takes center between MOB & PNS by midnight Monday night keeping most of the heavy rains to our east. I'll re-run VIPIR shortly & have an update around 10 PM
@Onlyreal y
ou worrying me now, the scary thing is that you seemed right since the beginning of this dang storm days ago! I sure hope ya wrong !
Thank You Bob for running VIPER again later this evening. Regarding Ida I do see the push coming but I am concerned Ida will beat the push from the Trough. Even though I have been focusing on the Track of Ida we shouldn't be fully focused on the exact track because the effects of the system will be felt far from the center and even if it gets pushed all the way to Pensacola we will still see Tropical Storm Force winds due to the significant pressure gradient.
Here we go...
AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
I would like to introduce "The Rolland Uncertainty Principle: They always turn late." - I would venture to say that 75% or more of the time that a major storm/hurricane turn was predicted by the NWS or any weather medium it always either turned late or did not turn how they predicted at all, making judgment of steering basically any person's guess.
"The Rolland Uncertainty Principle: They always turn late." - which could put us in more rain/wind from Ida.
Please, if you use my theory/principle make sure my name is pronounced right. :) - Its Rolland like Holland, not Roland like Poland. Holland... as in the people with enough smarts to have a great flood protection system .
Caveman,
Your post makes no sense and it is irrelevant to the topic of this blog. This blog is for people to share their thoughts on the upcoming, not to knock Bob. All you do is cause nothing but problems on here and and you make ridiculous posts/forecasts that has no information to back them up. If you want to wishcast and cause trouble you should just create you own blog. Personally, I am sick of you and your drama. Quit living in the past and causing trouble or just go somewhere else because you will not be welcomed here.
Thanks,
ONLYREAL
Amen OnlyReal. Bob's individual thinking and opinion from educated experience is what makes him one of the best forecaster's I've ever known and .. entertaining too. :) I won't dare pay attention to any "exact cast". lol - What a contradiction that is. There is absolutely nothing exact about weather.
Thank you Bob for your words of wisdom!
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