Saturday, November 7, 2009
Ida struggling over warmest waters...
One would have thought if Ida was going to become a hurricane she would have done it by now. 1) Ida is over the warmest waters of the NW Caribbean and 2) wind shear is modest but will get worse as she moves northward. As NHC says, her window of opportunity to increase is at best 24-36 hours. NHC thinking hasn't changed as their latest track brings it about 100 miles SE of the mouth of the river before turning it eastward towards AL/Fl. The upper trough over Texas is beginning to lift northward the secondary non-tropical low over the SW Gulf and the whole system will morph into a huge Gulf circulation. Impacts for SE LA are increasing winds (20-30+, higher along coast) and possible rainfall of 1-3" Sunday night into Monday night. Heavier amounts can be expected to our east. High Tides will cause some flooding outside our levee protection system (Corps now calls it "risk reduction system"), but our pumps should be able to keep up with only some minor street flooding. This will not be a Gustav and our newly rebuilt levees showed they can stand up to a Cat. 2 storm. What's left of IDA will be more like a winter "nor'easter". It will be more a concern for marine interests. Tonight's VIPIR run keeps the heaviest rains and strongest winds to our south & east. I'll blog again before noon tomorrow.
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7 comments:
Thanks Bob...sounda pretty good so far then :)
We are under a hurricane watch now, Bob. Do you think its going to be that bad? I think they are hyping this a bit.
the wind shear has moved away and lowered to about 10 mph, im surprised the nhc did not notice this yet? im concerned with the continued westward movement
OK, at first I thought nothing to be worried about. Now, am wondering if we need to worry just a bit?
Hurricane Hunters are finding winds around 100mph now. Ida will likely be upgraded to a Category 2 in the next advisory. Ida will likely loose some of her punch before landfall but I take precautions anyway folks just because the weather could get a bit ugly on Monday Night.
dang 12 hrs ago I said sounds good,,,not the forecast changed so much that I'm thinking of getting plywood?
Bob - NHC Now has this thing making landfall as a Cat-1. What's the poop?
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