Since this has been the least active hurricane season since 1982, don't be surprised to see NHC name Ida in the next 24 hours...way down over the southern Caribbean. Computer models are scattered all over as any motion in the next 1-2 days will be limited. By the weekend this system could drift northward either towards Cuba or into the Yucatan. Currently there are strong upper winds over the Gulf that will keep whatever forms away from the northern Gulf. In addition, a check of the Gulf water temps reveal the northern Gulf has cooled into the upper 70s.
Down over the SW Gulf is an area of moisture that is likely to spread northward for this weekend. In the short term, we'll continue dry & comfy cool-pleasant as a series of cold fronts keep the good feel air over us. By late Saturday into Sunday, the muggies return and along with them the threat of rain. Sub-zero cold is building over northern Canada, but there are no signs of that coming into the lower 48 for the next 7-10 days.
9 comments:
97L is well on its way to becoming a Tropical Depression. It has a nice ball of deep convection over the center of circulation with banding features evident. 97L is embedded in a deep moisture envelop and with Low Shear aloft one would expect strengthening. Conditions are much less favorable, however, just to the North of 97L. That's why I am not too concerned at the moment. What we need to watch for is for is if conditions become more favorable North of the system like a few models are indicating.
Just be honest Man, this is gonna be our next big one isn't it?? Tell it Straight.
Baxter,
After closely examining the models, looking at current conditions, and looking at climatology I will give you my best guess of what will happen. I will start off saying that there is a lot of uncertainty with the future Tropical Depression 11 but there is a lot more certainty with the Area of Disturbed Weather at the tail end of the Cold Front in the Bay of Campeche. To me it looks like the BOC disturbance won't do much for the next day or two but it looks to organize into a weak area of low pressure and move northward towards the Gulf Coast Early next week potentially bringing us some heavy rain. All reliable models agree on this scenario at this time. I personally don't think it will be fully tropical and any strengthening it does will be from Baroclinic processes(non-tropical). After that things become very tricky and there is plenty of disagreement between the models on the future of TD11. My general thinking(assuming land interaction does not kill TD11) is that TD11 will strengthen to Tropical Storm Ida later today and then drift NW into Nicaragua and Honduras tomorrow and this will induce weakening. Then the system looks to move off the coast of Honduras and emerge into the NW Caribbean. This is where the models really diverge. Some models bring it into the Yucatan and into the Gulf eventually getting picked up by a trough and moving into Florida in about 7 days, The UKMET and ECMWF both stall it in the NW Caribbean, the ECMWF still has it there in 10 days. And Finally the wacky GFS slowly drifts it North through the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf and then missing the trough and getting pushed back in the Caribbean. Just keep an eye on TD11. I will go out on a limb and say TD11 won't have an impact in Louisiana.
ONLYREAL
Ida....Oh my... Lions, Tigers and Bears...I wonder if TWC and NHC will make this out to be more than need be...
So any cold air by Thanksgiving???
Thanks for the specific explanation Onlyreal, I really do appreciate your knowledge on this blog, but I was just kidding. It just seems silly that a funded department has been naming thunderstorms this season in order to keep up appearances. I remember a couple of weeks ago you asked about my schooling. I'm majoring in Education as an English professor with a minor in World History.Keep it Coming, between you and Breck I really have grown a vested interest in the Weather hows and whys.
OK Gang...let's remember what month we're in and how the Gulf waters have really cooled with all the recent fronts. NEVER has a hurricane crossed the Louisiana coast in November and neither will Ida. Another front is coming here next Tuesday and IF Ida did survive and get into the Gulf, she would be steered eastward in FLA. So stop being like the other channels showing one forecast model bringing IDA to us. Not gonna happen, not gonna scare folks. Trust climatology folks.
To add to what to Bob said... Even if Ida did manage to get in the Gulf the Upper Level Environment looks to be terrible for the Tropical Cyclone to do any strengthening once there and it would probably get ripped to shreds.
I think the only effects we are going to have from TS Ida is some rain. Ida is most likely going to miss New Orleans by a long shot and will provide moisture for rain. We are definitely going to get impacts from the disturbed weather in the BOC. It will bring us widespread rainfall Sunday and Monday. Ida will not be a problem for New Orleans.
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