We knew that in an "El Nino" year, the sub-tropical jet stream is usually very active producing areas of low pressure about every 3rd day. Well that pattern appears to be taking shape as one low has passed to our south on Tuesday with another one likely late Friday followed by another one late Sunday into Monday. There has been a lot of talk regarding the possibility of some snow with the Friday night system, but I just don't see it. Things can change, but my experience tells me...when we have snowed in the past, they came as a surprise. Take last Dec. 11th...I think NWS called for some flurries, esp. North Shore, but I know they didn't forecast the 1-2" that fell on the South Shore nor the 4-8" that fell over parts of the Northshore...and neither did I. Sooo, I just don't think we'll have enough cold air in place. After all, we're only in the 1st week of December. Don't dispair, plenty more opportunities to come.
In the short term, as the upper low rapidly lifts out to the NE on Wednesday, I expect morning clouds and leftover showers to give way to some PM sunshine as highs reach 60-65. All day Sun on Thursday before the next Gulf low brings back clouds and some rain late Friday.
6 comments:
Bob I lived in New Orleans my whole life until Katrina, and if memory serves me correctly, snow for the most part did come as a surprise. Kinda like candid camera!!
Good afternoon folks,
I am really liking our chances for Snow. Most models agree that at least a Wintry Mix will fall late Friday night into the wee hours of Saturday. The NAM is the most bullish dropping a few inches of snow on the Southshore, while the NOGAPS is the most conservative only dropping some light sleet Fri Night/Sat morning. OUR local NWS office is being quite conservative(as usual) and only calling for snow on the Northshore and the river parishes and they likely won't put the snow in our forecast until it is falling outside.
I have no reason to change my forecast for a cold rain changing over to snow Friday Night/Saturday Morning due to increasing consensus/confidence. Get ready because its only 2 1/2 days out.
C'mon Onlyreal. My wife gets mad at me because I am more like a kid when snow is mentioned. Now I will run around like a restless kid until friday night. You are correct when you say that most forecasters won't predict it until it actually falls!
Not Our Bob!! That's why we love him. He is not like the other guys who are afraid to say what they think!
ONLYREAL...just me, but I think when you start looking at so many computer models, your forecast ability becomes clouded by different scenarios and you end up chosing the one YOU want to happen instead of the one most likely to happen. As I mentioned earlier, most "snow events" are never predicted in advance. So hearing NWS come out saying..."snow event looks to develop..." well, I just don't see it. 1) limited cold air & 2) limited moisture. VIPIR keeps the low way down in Gulf & Upper Wind Forecast quickly zips trough by before dawn on Saturday. If we get "few inches" of snow on the S-Shore, I'll be shocked since Lake P. water temp is still near 60. Of course it makes for interesting reading.
Greg, email me at webmaster@bobbreck.com
C'mon Bob! The Saints are 11-0 and there is magic in the air! Besides, snow sounds so much better than a cold rain, especially this time of the year. Nothing like some snow to put everyone in the Christmas Spirit.
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