Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Cold February Almost Over...
So far this month only 3 out of 24 days have we enjoy temperature at or above average/normal. Looking ahead, we might be near average on Sunday, but should finish the month with possibly the coldest February ever. The 1st week in March doesn't look much warmer with yet another opportunity for a wintry mix on the N-Shore late Monday. In the short term, a light to moderate freeze will affect the N-Shore Thursday morning with near freezing on the S-Shore. Bright sunshine will be filtered by some high, thin clouds during the afternoon with highs reaching the mid-upper 50s (normal is 67). Our next southern "clipper" will sweep in on Friday with thickening clouds and increasing rain chances by dark. There is a slight chance for some sleet/snow mixed in far N-Shore early on Saturday morning before the moisture leaves. Saturday will be windy & very cold with highs upper 40s to lower 50s. Much warmer on Sunday 60-65 before yet another fast flying system comes on Monday. Yep, our climate continues to change. Who would have known?!!!
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I love writing the forecast's, guys. Caveman might get an opportunity to take a picture in the snow with the Global Warming sign next Monday/Tuesday.
The 12Z and latest GFS shows a weak surface low tracking over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS is the weakest and is furthest south as far as the track of the surface low goes and this makes the GFS an outlier. I think the GFS has some issues. The GFS seems to can't handle the split Jet Stream Pattern over the United States. Even the NAM is handling the pattern better than the GFS, which is pretty sad. NCEP needs to make some "tweeks" to the GFS to fix this problem.
The rest of the models; the ECMWF, CMC, NOGAPS, and even the GFS and CMC ensembles support a further north and much more intense surface low that tracks through the North-central Gulf of Mexico that draws down some pretty cold air with the help of a large upper trough with that has a nice closed upper level low at the base that slides through the Southern United States. If the GFS is wrong and the other Global Model's and ensembles are right we would probably all get some snow next Monday/Tuesday with some areas getting high totals while Florida gets hammered by a big Severe Wx Event. Can't wait to see how this plays out.
-ONLYREAL
PS... I will have a full forecast up tomorrow morning.
Good Morning Guys!
We have about a day and a half left of quiet weather. For today expect sunny skies with highs warming up into the mid 50's after a chilly start. Tonight will be another chilly night, however, it will not be as chilly as this morning due to increase in cloud cover. Lows will be in the upper 30's on the S-Shore and Mid 30's on the N-Shore.
When you wake up tomorrow morning skies will likely be mostly cloudy and probably thickening overcast by mid-morning. What will be happening is a strong shortwave will move into upper Texas and it will phase with the large mid-level circulation over the Northeast and become one large trough. Eventually a surface trough will develop over Texas and dive south into the Gulf of Mexico. The Surface Trough will likely reach the Gulf by noon tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon rain will start to fall across our area. By the way, temperatures will be in the upper 40's/Low 50's during this time. Rainy conditions will continue into Friday Night into Saturday Morning as the surface trough slides south of the area. Meanwhile the trough will still continue digging and this will cause thicknesses to fall. Saturday morning we will be very close to getting some of the white stuff, again. Towards the end of the event (Saturday Morning), temperatures will likely be in the 30's across the area and we could see a flake or two right as the precipitation ends. We should see clearing by Saturday Afternoon.
Saturday Night through Sunday Night will be pleasant as we briefly enjoy some ridging. Highs will probably get to around 60F area wide, however, it will be short lived.
Not much of a change in thinking for the extended range forecast. The 00Z and 06 GFS continue to show a shamefully weak surface low tracking over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS is the weakest and is furthest south as far as the track of the surface low goes and this makes the GFS an outlier. You must understand that all the other models track this low on the opposite side of the Gulf of Mexico. I think the GFS has some issues. The GFS seems to can't handle the split Jet Stream Pattern over the United States. Even the NAM still is handling the pattern better than the GFS, which is pretty sad.
The rest of the models; the ECMWF, CMC, NOGAPS,the GFS and CMC ensembles, and now the UKMET feature a further north and more intense surface low that tracks through the North-central Gulf of Mexico that draws down some pretty cold air with the help of a large upper trough with that has a nice closed upper level low at the base that slides through the Southern United States. If the GFS is wrong and the other Global Model's and ensembles are right we would probably all get some snow next Monday/Tuesday with some areas getting high totals while Florida gets hammered by a big Severe Wx Event. After the surface low leaves the CMC and ECMWF models want to keep the upper trough in place which will keep us somewhat chilly through Friday. My thinking is that this event will be the Grand Finale to our winter.
By the time this trough lifts out it will be March 5th and you have to wonder when this higher sun angle will begin to take hold on our weather. The answer to that is next weekend. Upper ridging will take place and spring will come into full force.
-ONLYREAL
Onlyreal,
Me detects a bit of sarcasm in your otherwise technical, informative and detailed weather forecast delineation. Nice touch of humor blended with professionalism. I'm sure the little fella is having that positive affect on you.
You could have added this. Maybe Caveman should rename himself "Snowman" you know, as in AGW "SNOW-JOB".
If I do a photo and sign I'll get Pelican Graphics & Pelican Events to help out.
"Me detects a bit of sarcasm"
Is that supposed to be a good thing, Craig?
Caveman...My uncle Dolph owns Pelican Graphics. You know him?
Onlyreal,
Sure, it's a good thing. I, also, was being sarcastic. Your remark was clever, it deserved an "attaboy".
And I see "Snowman" has been a good sport about it.
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