Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Get Ready to Shovel?
As mentioned last night, NWS is forecasting a heavy snow band across the N-Shore beginning after dark Thursday into early on Friday. Frankly, I have no strong feelings on that until I see where the center of low pressure forms in the western Gulf. If it stays way to our south, I don't think enough moisture will get up over land to produce the snow. If it comes closer to the coast, then we could see quite an event north of Lake P. I'll try to do an earlier update midday on Thursday. I haven't even ruled out some flakes south of Lake P....depends on the track of the low. Last week up in NYC, NWS forecast 1-2 feet, which did fall on D.C., Philly & Baltimore, but the track of the storm stayed far enough south that NYC came up with ZERO. A few miles does make a difference. Stay tuned!
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The GFS and NAM have been trending colder each run throughout the day. The 00Z runs(the latest run) finally trended cold enough to where the 0C line at 850mb dips south of the city. If this verifies we would have a period of snow in the city on Friday Morning with very little accumulation. But hey, snow is snow!
The 00Z runs also showed a deeper low and better mid-level dynamics associated with the system that would support higher than forecasted snowfall totals North of the lake. I like the direction the Nam and GFS are headed. I will have an update tomorrow morning when after I am able to closely examine the rest of the 00Z guidance.
-ONLYREAL
Good Morning guys, here is the bold forecast that I promised you last night.
The main story for this forecast is the potential for frozen precipitation across the New Orleans Metropolitan Area for Today, tonight, and into Friday. Right now if you look at radar you will notice that over the past 12 hours widespread precipitation has developed from Western Texas all the way to Louisiana. This is the result of a strong piece of upper level energy embedded in the Sub-Tropical Jet that is approaching the Mississippi River Valley this morning for the west. This feature will trigger the development of a surface low in the Western Gulf of Mexico today. In fact, surface observations in South Texas are showing falling pressure so it is safe to assume that cyclogenesis has already commenced. Ahead of the Surface Low there is a cold air-mass in place across the Gulf Coast states. The combination of these factors will cause a Gulf Coast winter storm.
Right now temperatures are hovering in the upper 30's across the metro area and if you look on radar a round of precipitation is moving in from the west. There have already been a few unofficial reports of sleet in the Chackabay/Vacherie area this morning. It will be interesting to see if we get any sleet in the city in the next hour or so. Regardless, sleet is falling much earlier in these areas much earlier than forecasted. The officials forecasted that sleet wasn't expected until 3pm this afternoon!
With all the cloud cover combined with on and off rain/sleet today I expect temperatures to stay in the low to mid 40's across the area before falling after 3pm. As we head into the evening hours the precipitation will increase in coverage and intensity as the surface low slides closer. By 6pm this evening, it is more than likely that the majority of the northshore seeing some form of frozen precipitation whether its sleet or snow, probably snow once north of the I-12. On the southshore during the evening hours it will likely be mostly rain with sleet mixed in occasionally. But who knows? This mornings sleet wasn't forecasted! By midnight the majority of the northshore and river parishes should be seeing at least a little snow. The snow could be heavy north of the I-10/I-12 corridor. Still rain and sleet for the southshore. By 6am tomorrow morning, the whole northshore will likely be in all snow, and it could be heavy. Now for the southshore, rain and sleet could be mixing in with snow possibly changing over to a wet snow from time to time. Sometime between 5-10am is the most likely time frame that we would see snow on the southshore. 4 out of the 5 models I use indicate this by sticking the 0C (32F) line at 850mb (5000 feet) just south of the city. It is very crucial that this imaginary line is south of us if we want snow. But I think it is going to happen. Now on to snowfall totals expected by me. I am Expecting 6-8 inches north of the I-12; locally 10 inches. South of the I-12 on the northshshore around 1-3". In the River Parishes .5-1.5". On the southshore I expect no accumulation-.25" of snow.
I expect all precipitation associated with this winter storm to end by noon Friday. This means that all parades for Friday Night will be dry! However, it will be cold and windy so if you plan on going to any parades you will definitely need the sweaters. The parades will also be dry for Saturday, but again, it will be cold. Sunday will be cold too and there is even a chance for precipitation again Sunday Night as a clipper system slides through. You thinking what I'm thinking? Nah! It can't happen again? Or can it? Stay tuned...
-ONLYREAL
06z NAM paints a really pretty picture for the southshore snow-wise for tomorrow morning. The NAM is probably more accurate than the GFS at this point. The GFS is way is a bit too progressive with this system. The NAM is more accurate than the GFS because it falls in line with the rest of the consensus. If the 06z NAM verifies we could see some moderate snow at some point tomorrow morning in the city.
Well, there are certainly lots of conflicting reports regarding snow for both northshore and southshore. I would love to see snow, but not at the expense of having traffic snarled, and traffic accidents. Hopefully if it does snow, especially south of the lake, it will do so in the very early hours of Friday so it will all be done by drive to work time. I'm moving tomorrow so hopefully the weather won't affect the move. Keep us informed of this very "UNUSUAL" weather. By the way BOB and ONLY REAL...do you see any snow, sleet, etc. for Sunday night into Monday morning...I see more participation and cold temps for that period of time. Give us a heads up!!! and thanks again for all of your information. We surely do depend on you guys to keep us atop of our game.
I am in Covington just north of I-12. There is very light sleet falling right now. It is melting as soon as it hits the ground.
Ice pellets have been steadily falling in Picayune for the past two hours.
Sleet in Denham Springs since 12:30
Minor sleet here in Metairie, off and on, since around 7:00 am
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