All right, so I was 10 points off. I did have the winning 31 right. What a journey! What a ride! What a team! I hope this is only the beginning. No more wait until next year. If we can do it, maybe there is hope for my Chicago Cubs? Nah !
This week will see several fast moving southern systems race across us. The first one will increase clouds by Monday PM with showers developing near dark. Over night storms should exit before daybreak Tuesday leaving the Saint's parade weather dry, but windy and chilly (40s). Wednesday will be sunny but chilly before Thursday and early Friday go into the dumper with a cold rain likely. Rain will be gone for Friday night and Saturday and Sunday look dry. Another system could threaten Monday and Mardi Gras parades, but it's too soon to tell.
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Today started off mostly sunny which allowed us to warm up into the mid 60's earlier this afternoon, however, the high clouds that moved in about an hour ago have knocked down the temperature by a few degrees. Expect the clouds to become thicker as the afternoon hours wear on. Tonight, the main piece of energy embedded in the Jet Stream will trigger cyclogenesis in the northern Gulf of Mexico and this will lead to the development of a large rain shield. This shield of rain will move through the New Orleans metropolitan area overnight into tomorrow morning. There may even be a rumble of thunder or two South of the lake. Area wide I expect rainfall totals to be in the 0.25-1.00 inch range; perhaps being a little higher along the coast.
The cold front should be through our area by 9AM tomorrow morning which should put an end to the rain. Behind the front a much colder and drier air-mass will advect into the region. Highs will struggle to reach 50F on Tuesday especially if skies remain cloudy. If you plain on going to the Saints Parade you will definitely need your sweaters and jackets as wind chills should be in the 30's during the parade. Skies will become clear on Tuesday night and temperatures will fall below freezing north of the lake and near freezing south of the lake.
Wednesday will be mostly sunny and dry but chilly as High Pressure slides through the area. Highs will once again struggle to get out of the 40's on Wednesday. Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday Evening as a shortwave trough embedded in the Sub-Tropical Jet.
Once the shortwave reaches our region Wednesday night it will trigger cyclogenesis in Central Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of it will be a cold air-mass in place over the Gulf Coast. As the surface low begins to move east and deepen, moisture will increase across the Gulf Coast and precipitation will begin to fall by mid-day Thursday. Temperatures look to stay in the 40's during the day Thursday in the New Orleans area, it will be cold enough for snow during that time period as far south as the LA/MS border. Thursday Night is when things will get interesting for the rest of SE LA. Temperatures will fall through all layers of the atmosphere and the potential will increase for wintry precipitation on the Northshore. Right now it appears areas at and North of the I-12/I-10 corridor will have the best chance to see snow and sleet. South of the I-12/I-10 Corridor it appears the atmosphere will be too warm for frozen precipitation. At this time, only 1 of the 4 models I look at that go out to Thursday/Friday show snow/sleet for the Southshore. This event is still 96 hours out so things can still change. If the Surface Low tracks a little further south than forecasted the rain/snow line will be far enough south to where the Southshore see's snow too. Again, its still very early and I expect changes as this event draws closer.
By Friday afternoon all forms of Precipitation will move out of the area and this will be the beginning of a dry weekend. You will not have to worry about parades being a washout this weekend. It will be a chilly weekend so you will need the coats if you plan on attending them.
-ONLYREAL
CONGRAT'S TO OUR BELOVED NEW ORLEANS SAINT'S
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