A number of bloggers are jumping on an area of clouds down over the eastern Caribbean saying it will become our season's 1st named storm and move into to the Gulf late this weekend. looking at satellite loops tonight and i don't see it happening. There are no T-Storms around it and no signs of rotation. Plus, there still is fairly strong wind shear over the northern Caribbean. My experience of 30+ years tells me nothing forms over the eastern Caribbean and, unless the shear weakens, if something did develop over the western Caribbean, it would be steered to the NNE away from the Gulf. Bottom line...until a circulation does form, speculating where it will go is pure folly and serves no purpose.
Today's 96 degrees was the hottest day of the year, however, it compares favorably with last June when we topped 100 twice during the June 21-30 period. Don't despair yet because last June ended up hotter than July or August. I may or may not have internet access during my time at the AMS Broadcaster's conference. ONLYREAL will keep you posted on any tropical development.
15 comments:
Roger that Bob! I will have a full update on 93L tomorrow morning.
-ONLYREAL
ok, only real, awaiting your official forecast for 93L....
You don't want Caveman to keep everyone posted?
Hows everyone today?
Looking at visible satellite imagery 93L is showing continued signs of organization with a low level circulation developing about 100 miles south of the Dominican Republic coastline. The center appears to be moving in the general westward direction towards Jamaica. 93L will be slow to organize over the next day or two, however, once it gets past the Cayman Islands I see the opportunity for the system to become a strong Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane. Right now there is strong consensus that 93L will get into the Gulf of Mexico but it is very uncertain where it will end up and its anyone's ball game. Stay tuned!
-ONLYREAL
Confused... Bob says it ain't going to happen.
Ok, here we go.... Now we need to really worry about tropical systems pushing all this oil on to our beautiful gulf coast beaches and precious marsh land and bayous of Louisiana. It is June so we knew this time would come sooner or later...Just take solice in the fact that we can all rest easy come November! Thanks ONLY REAL for your update!
Any new updates ONLYREAL?
Good Evening everyone, I was waiting for something to actually happen with 93L before I'd do another update and it now appears to be finally doing something!
Over the past couple of days 93L has slowly moved from east to west in the Caribbean as a large and disorganized surface trough of low pressure. Due to its size it's taken a bit longer than normal to get better organized even with a pristine upper level environment.
Looking at satellite imagery this evening, 93L's low level circulation has become tighter and better define. In addition to the tightening of the circulation deep convection is now firing near the center. Another sign that 93L is becoming better organized this evening is that there are widespread pressure falls occurring across the entire SW Caribbean with showing a 2mb drop today!
93L is expected to continue organizing tonight and I would not be surprised if it becomes a Tropical Depression tomorrow. Given the favorable atmospheric environment and extremely warm water temperatures an upgrade to tropical storm status even seems likely before moving into the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. 93L looks to emerge back into the Gulf of Mexico sometime on Sunday and this is where we begin to see disagreement in the models. Some models show a stronger ridge and bring it into Texas/Mexico while other models show more troughing and bring it into LA/MS/AL. Since there is lots of uncertainty in the future track for the time being I am going in the middle of the pack and say the area for the highest risk for a landfall is anywhere from Houston to Morgan City.
-ONLYREAL
Bob,
No offense to your colleague, but it has been frustrating watching Nicondra Norwood this week. Her forecasts are confusing and her delivery is monotone. All of Fox 8's other meteorologists are exceptional...
Thanks OnlyReal for your updates.
Looks like they called TD1, it does look like its better organized...Still looks like it is moving due west and will hit the penisula before it emerges back over the southern Gulf.
Keep us up to date Onlyreal with your forecasts.
Good Afternoon Everyone...
TD 1 strengthened to Tropical Storm Alex this morning just north of Honduras. Looking at satellite, Alex is rapidly organizing and latest data from the Hurricane Hunters indicates that Alex is now a strong tropical storm with 60mph winds and a minimal central pressure of 998mb. Alex will make landfall sometime in the next 3-6 hours around the Belize area. If Alex had 12 more hours over water without land interaction it would most certainly become a Hurricane.
Tropical Storm Alex is currently being steered to the WNW by a mid level ridge currently over the south-central US. This ridge is expected to break down in about 36-48 hours when a unusually strong upper trough traverses through the lower 48. This trough is expected to create a weakness and tug Alex north. However, only to a certain degree. Earlier model runs had the trough picking up Alex and bringing it in our direction. Now, however, the models have the Trough leaving Alex behind in the Gulf of Mexico and ridging will quickly build back behind it forcing it into Texas. The upper environment looks conducive for re-organization for Alex once in the Gulf. The track of Alex will seal the deal on how strong it will get. If it goes a little north and hits south-central Texas it will have 3-4 days to intensify. If it stays on a southerly route and goes into Mexico it will only have a day or two to intensify. It all depends on how strong and how deep the trough digs.
All in all Alex does not appear to be a threat at this time although it could increase rain chances next week. If there are any big changes in thinking you will be the first to know.
-ONLYREAL
Dr. Masters is calling for a possible TX/LA landfall... Any updates?
Models now starting to want to bring Alex towards Louisiana!
Shame on you CAVEMAN. Remember Gang, this is the same person who "predicted" a hurricane going to Lake Charles when, in reality the storm went up the east coast of Florida. This blog is for opinions, but to say models starting to bring Alex to Louisiana is NOT true tonight. Give opinions...don't make things up.
Some model runs moving Alex to Louisiana is not made up. Are we talking about the same system that you with your 30 years of experience pointed out would not form?
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