Just back from the AMS Broadcaster's Conference in Miami Beach where I was able to see the NHC up close while they were tracking Alex. Very interesting discussions regarding models and their strengths and weaknesses.
The latest update tonight continues Alex on a course back out over the warm waters of the southern Gulf for the next 3-4 days. It is quite possible Alex will become the season's 1st hurricane as soon as Monday PM. Latest computer runs show a landfall generally south of Brownsville, Texas. As always, there are several models that differ from the NHC track forecast. My concern is the slow movement of Alex. I have more confidence in NHC's forecast when the storm is moving faster than 10 mph. Alex tonight is only drifting NW at 6-7 mph. Maybe that is why Dr. Jeff Masters of WeatherUnderground indicated a more northward turn to Alex. It is possible that might happen later tomorrow or on Tuesday due to an approaching upper trough. That upper trough will also increase wind shear so NHC's intensity forecast to 100+ mph hurricane may not happen. Right now there is no reason to believe Alex will make a change in course northward towards Louisiana. NHC indicates there are no facts to support that change in track tonight. Stay tuned. I return on-air to FOX 8 Monday at 5 PM.
3 comments:
I'm curious, then. That was a tease in regard to the discussion about the tropical prediction models. I won't ask which one is better than the others but how are they different? Does anyone keep track of whether the predictions of each one verify?
Did they let you see operations area with the big map on the wall and other areas such as carcah?
Welcome home Bob....glad that you enjoyed your visit.
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