Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Hurricane Hunters Going Out...
NHC has schedule a plane to investigate a cluster of T-Storms that appear to be getting more concentrated tonight. Most computer models bring this system into the Gulf over the weekend, however, since we have no set center yet, the initialization point for these models are likely wrong. Let's not get too hyped up until the plane tells us there is a circulation. IF...I stress IF this system does come our way, we would not see much impact until Sunday into Monday. My gut tells me this system might take a more southern track into Cuba and then westward toward the southern Texas coast. That has been the pattern for Alex and TD 2 and would keep most of the strong winds and rains well to our south. Stay tuned as we find out what the plane finds tomorrow. It could be Bonnie?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
3 comments:
Well, we all knew that eventually we would have to deal with tropical systems. It's already July 21st for crying out so we should be well prepared to be dealing with this type of thing by now. I do hope we don't have to deal with evacuations though. That is not only expensive but very tiresome. For Gustav it took me 13 hours just to get to Pensacola!!! Anyway, only 38 more days till my cruise. STAY AWAY HURRICANES!!!
Despite the fact that the low levels are slightly improving this morning it is quite evident on satellite imagery that this is a very ill tropical disturbance. SW Shear along with dry air thanks to the Upper Level Low to its northeast are wreaking havok on this disturbance with convection(if you want to call it that since its more like elevated thunderstorm activity) displaced to the north of the low level vorticity maxima. Definitely nothing special going on this morning and I support the hurricane centers decision to cancel today. That main forecasting issue with 97L is whether or not the upper level low can or can't move far enough away from 97L and the philosophy behind whether or not this happens is very simple. Either the upper level low stays in close vicinity to 97L and it remains a sheared and disorganized mess with little to no development that gets caught up in low level flow and goes to TX/MX. OR The upper level low starts to accelerate faster that 97L and gives it some breathing room. If that occurs then 97L could easily become a strong tropical storm over the next few days. Right now I am leaning towards scenario #1. However, we all know that the models handle the movement of upper lows poorly so for the sake of scenario #2 this still bears watching. Time will tell!
Regarding 97 L:
Looking at the latest models on Hurricanealley.net the trend seems to be moving more to the west. Several more models put this thing on the Louisiana coast...Fewer put it on the Florida panhandle...What are your thoughts Bob and ONLY REAL?? I know it is still just a mass of clouds and rain, but, everyone seems to think it will progress into tropical storm Bonnie. I also heard Shell is pulling out all of it's nonessential personnel from gulf oil rigs today!! Hopefully, we will have a better idea by the 5:00newscast this evening.
Post a Comment