Wednesday, July 21, 2010
No Bonnie Yet...
All eyes were on the tropical wave moving towards Florida north of Haiti as becoming the next named storm. However, NHC redirected focus this afternoon to the southern Gulf where it appears an area of low pressure might be forming. The system east of Florida is under lots of wind shear and dry air while the one over the southern Gulf is not. NHC gives the eastern system a 40% chance for development with the one in the Gulf a 30% chance. My feelings are the Gulf system might win out and become T.S. Bonnie before making landfall in Mexico as it's in a friendlier environment. Satellite loops tonight show neither looking better organized. IF the system east of Florida came straight to us, our times of bad weather would be late Saturday night into Monday. Most computer models keep it a weak system as the upper low continues the strong wind shear. Let's hope so. Another update late Thursday.
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The tropical cyclone heat values currently in the Gulf are around 40:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2010200go.jpg
Is this normal for this time of year? It seems somewhat low (and good news) to me, but then I am no expert at all.
Waiting for BOB's and ONLY REAL's update on this tropical system by the Bahamas. I hear it will probably be upgraded to tropical depression at 11:00 and possibly tropical storm by tomorrow. Some say could be a hurricane in gulf by Saturday and all models point to Louisiana and Eastern Texas coasts. Should we NOW start to worry a bit. We should already be prepared (since June 1st)!!! Hopefully you guys will give us a mid day update on this thing.
Thanks
Well, as I imagined, they just upgraded the tropical sytem to a tropical depression and all eyes should be on south Florida and then by late weekend coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Looks to be a wet and windy end of weekend for us here in New Orleans!!! Any thoughts on whether this thing will eventually intensify to hurricane status??
We now have TD # 3. All of South LA is in the 3 day cone of uncertainty. It's very interesting that the forecast by NHC calls for a TS by tonight, no interaction with land (except for the Keys), but yet doesn't forecast strengthening to even a minor hurricane before landfall. We will definitely need to keep both eyes on this one.
My hope is that this thing keeps moving at 15 mph or greater and that High pressure ridge remains intact. That way, it mosey on past us to the south. Also, I hope that Low Pressure stays with the Tropical Depression so that it never reaches Hurricane strength. I, like the rest of you, am anxious to see Bob's take on this tonight. It appears forecasters on other stations are fairly confident this thing will not reach Hurricane strength. Let's hope they are correct.
TD #3 I believe will become a weak hurricane.
I agree with caveman, we will probably see a category I or II before landfall in Louisiana. The gulf waters are really hot....easy for intensification...
Right now Bonnie is over coming the shear and pressure is dropping some. Today at wally folks already buying milk, bread, batteries etc... amazing how many people decide to eat alot of bread and drink alot of milk when a storm heads our way.
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