Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Would you believe...An August Cold Front ?
We have been talking about how strange the tropics are worldwide and again tonight we have no named storms ANYWHERE. Yea,Yea, computer models are saying something will developing out in the Atlantic in the next 4-7 days, but computer models are also showing a real push of cold air getting close to us late Sunday into Monday. IF something does form out in the Atlantic, it would recurve to the north well east of Florida & the Carolinas. We still have 4-6+ weeks to stay on guard for a Hurricane threat...but I am enjoying reading & watching the "experts" try to explain what is NOT happening in the tropics. Could it be that the atmosphere is way more complex than even the most brilliant computer modeler can program ?
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7 comments:
you watch, they gonna try to come up with some cooked up data saying that is global warming related!!!
That is so funny !!!
I think they are all nuts! It is hard enough to predict a few days in advance much less predicting storms 6 months out! I also find it hillarious that they modify the forcast a few times during the season. Who could ever be wrong?? Great post Bob. Thanks for being "our" weatherman!!
Bob,
This weather indeed has been one to stump even the best of weather forecasters but as long as the tropics are quiet and we begin to dry out a bit, I can not complain. I do remember Camille very well and to this day, still see signs of what that hurricane did to the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Only 9 more days till I set sail for Cozumel. Let's just hope those tropics stay quiet. Now, as for a cold front in August, what will that do to affect our temps here in the greater New Orleans area? Below 75
at night would be nice for a start :) :) :)
As long as nothing develops and ruins our honeymoon in September I will be happy.
Yes! The atmosphere is more advanced than what people or computer can try to predict. For that matter, our world is way more advanced. You may try to put as much intelligence and experience into a prediction but in the end, it is just a WAG.
Like watching all this sideline quarter backing taking place. Name a weather forecaster that give just a short range 5 day forecast and does not change it? Of course NHC will change/update their long range hurriance forecast and they should.
Has the NHC actually come out with an adjusted predicted total number of named storms and hurricanes since Aug. 1st? I know that several other outlets who made predictions back circa April-May have issued notices -- and they have mostly seemed to have stuck with their original thoughts -- but I don't remember anything from the NHC since Aug. 1st?
No, there isn't anything wrong if someone wants to come out now and adjust their prediction. I thought that the whole point here is that perhaps some of these people ought to be doing exactly that since it looks like at this point that it's increasingly unlikely that some sort of near-record or record year for the total number of storms is going to happen.
I read somewhere that in all historical actuality years with 14 or more named storms have been pretty rare, and thus all of these outlets making early predictions of numbers greater than that were really going out on a limb.
If you're a weather forecaster being credible and objective has got to be extremely important.
It looks like to me that at least some of these people have a personal stake in a severe season taking place, as in traffic to their web sites and so on, and that has to be taken into account.
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