TS Karl is re-emerging into the extreme SW Gulf tonight and should rapidly become a hurricane during the day on Thursday or certainly by Friday. That would give us 3 hurricanes to track at once as we're still following powerful Igor and weakening Julia way out in the Atlantic. The good news is none of these storms will impact Louisiana except for Karl kicking up some winds & seas off our coast. Long range computer models are still trying to form a system in the Caribbean 7-10 days from now moving it into the eastern Gulf. As Caveman correctly points out, water temperatures will still be very warm, but it appears stronger westerly winds will be over us turning the system (if it forms) east of us. Way too soon to get concerned.
I like seeing the 40s showing up in the Dakotas and even some 30s across northern Minnesota. Need those real fronts to start coming ! Stay tuned.
16 comments:
Thank goodness Karl won't be doing that northeasternly curviture thing all those other storms in the Atlantic have been doing all summer. The official start of Fall can't get here soon enough.
I was wondering what the status of the models picking up a tropical entity in the Carribean and getting into the gulf was. Are the models still seeing something in the next 10-12 days? I know we are just past the peak of hurricane season so the worries are still there for most of us. At least the ones that have lived here all of our lives and have experienced hurricane season after hurricane season. So far, this year has been a blessing for the entire united states.... Even south Texas hasn't had it that bad.
I don't need to tell ya'll that many boards are buzzing at the GFS/NOGAPS models predicting a large hurricane in the Gulf making landfall somewhere around October
1st.
And no I'm not surprised...just concerned. I like to imagine by October we have cleared any major tropical hurdles.
Hopefully you still see westerlies or a front here by that time.
We've got too much going for us here in New Orleans to go through a major storm right now.
Don't forget to mention the far more reliable European model also shows development of this system and with consistency. As an avid model watcher the European has been solid all year as far as development goes. It has not shown one ghost storm this year, although, it did overlook Bonnie with it only showing an open wave. Regardless, the chances for development of this system is high since it already exists and the global models have done a very good job with development of systems once there is consensus. Where it goes after it gets in the western Caribbean is anyone's guess and that's why we need to keep a close eye on the pattern over the next week.
In addition the the potential Caribbean threat another Cape Verde system is forecast to develop in a few days and will become our 12th named storm. This storm will become another fish thanks to a persistent weakness in the central Atlantic.
As far as stats are we are running well ahead of Climo. and we have a shot of breaking the seasonal record for most major hurricanes which is 8. Right now we stand at 4 but we could very well be at 5 tomorrow morning when Karl becomes a major hurricane before moving into Mexico tomorrow evening. Then with the models continuing to show an active Atlantic we could very well break it with continued record water temperatures in OUR basin.
Any questions?
-ONLYREAL
10 to 1, nothing happens. Sorry to disappoint the scaremongers out there....
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images/Models/GFS/CON/CP/large/surface/2010091612_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_336.gif
Kitchy-Koo,
What information do you have to justify that statement?
If there's already a storm brewing that will be here around October 1st then where exactly is it right now? Africa? Eastern Africa? That seems like a long way away and a very, very, very long away for any model to be pinpointing an exact area of landfall along the U.S. coast. And obviously we aren't even talking about a named storm yet or even a tropical depression. Also, if this storm is in Africa or the far eastern Atlantic why would it not follow the same path as these other storms coming from that region have followed this year of curving to the north and not threatening the U.S.? Finally, how many major storms have made landfall in the central Gulf region on October 1st or thereafter?
I, like some others, can't help but sense that there are those who seem always to be actually hoping for a major storm to develop and bring destruction and seem to get excited over any prospect of such no matter how far-fetched and I can't help but be highly critical of such a disposition.
Any reliable forecaster, sure, should let people know when there's some threat of bad weather but at the same credibility is of utmost importance and should never be sacrificed in order to stir up alarm because one gets their jollies over bad storms.
OnlyReal,
My source is my faith in God. He's much more powerful than computers, you know.
Any other questions, Junior?
So true, Anonymous. You can almost sense the disappointment in the media over the fact that these monster storms have not threatened anyone. There was a brief surge (pardon the double pun) or excitement when Earl threatened the East Coast, but that quickly went flaccid when that storm went out to sea.
I agree with Anonymous above. All I hear from forecasters about hurricane prediction is how inaccurate models are 4-5 days out and now people are trying to claim that a model showing a possible storm in 2 weeks is going to be accurate. This seems slightly silly to me. This isn't to say that there will not be a threat, but I know that some of the models just two weeks ago predicted a major hurricane strike pretty much right at New Orleans around September 12 and that wasn't even close. I think it's irresponsible to try and rile people up about the weather in two weeks when we all have such a sketchy track record in actually predicting these things.
Kitchy Koo,
Yes I do.
1.) Do you hear voices?
2.) Describe..."nothing happens."
Here's another one for you, Kitchy-koo.
*How come God is only good 9 out of 10 times when it comes to the weather?
kitchy-koo,
Faith in imaginary sky friends sure kept NOLA safe and dry for Katrina, eh?
Kept my house dry!
And I put more faith in "imaginary sky friends" than I do in imaginary storms.....
The point is that model predictions do change from run to run and to talk about something that might happen, that will form up that isn't there right now in two weeks from now is absurd and akin imho to predicting that a tornado will happen and exactly where and when, which, despite all the advances of science, the most we can do is say that conditions will be conducive to tornados forming up.
If the one model were perfect then there would not need to be several of them, there would not need to be new runs every 6 hours and there wouldn't even need to be people doing forecasting, since we would already know everything that's going to happen for the rest of time.
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