The season's 15th named storm has formed way out in the Atlantic and it will have a difficult time fighting the wind shear that covers much of the tropical Atlantic & Caribbean. NHC is forecasting her to make the turn to the north as most storms have done this year. With a deep cut off low predicted to develop over the Eastern U.S. over the weekend, Ophelia should not be a threat to the mainland. Pay attention down the road as several models are still trying to develop a system in the eastern Gulf during the 10-14 day time frame(Oct. 1-5). That fits in to what Joe Bastardi was saying yesterday...that there is a teleconnection between the typhoon hitting Japan tonight and a trough forming farther to our west next week. If that happens, southerly winds would open the Gulf for tropical business. That is why I'm not letting the Fat Lady sing just yet. With the MJO turning favorable again, Who knows where Phillippe will form? Stay tuned!
In the short term, as the upper low over the east deepens, it'll drag down some cooler air into the Gulf South. Any showers will be around Wednesday into early Thursday with the weekend turning dry and nice.
1 comment:
Let's say something would form in the eastern gulf - and I'm assuming "eastern gulf" means south of the Florida panhandle/west Florida coast. Which way would such a system tend to move?
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