"Reliable" Computer Models...

Yesterday the "reliable" European model brought a strong tropical disturbance right into Louisiana. Today it has flipped flopped and now takes the system into Mexico. That is why you should not get too excited when you see any model bring a storm into the Gulf or make Louisiana the bulls-eye, especially if it's beyond 5 days out. I think the reason the models are having difficulty this year is because most of the storms are weak, lopsided, short lived or all of the above. Models do very well with strong hurricanes (Cat. 3,4,5). It's the weaker system that seems to confused the models.

Tonight we have TS Nate way down in the Gulf and unless something strange happens, he will not be a problem for the Northern Gulf Coast. All models (including VIPIR) except one, take Nate into Mexico south of the Texas border. We'll keep an eye on it, but for now it appears not to be our problem.

The current cool spell along with the churning of the Gulf waters from TS Lee has dramatically dropped water temps. Before Lee the inside marsh waters were in the lower 90s. Today they are in the mid to upper 70s! Of course most of the Gulf remains warm as it will take more than one cold front to cool down that big body of water. Enjoy several more days of cool mornings and pleasantly warm afternoons before the muggies return next week.