The remains of TS Lee are pulling away with unusually cool air descending into the Gulf south. The cold front will sweep deep into the Gulf and today's model runs have backed off anything forming along the southern end later this week. This will be a delightful Fall preview with morning lows in the 50s on the N-shore and in the 60s south of Lake P. We could approach some record lows. We will be protected from any tropical systems for the next 7-10 days as the deep trough that is bringing us the cooler air will linger over the eastern states. However, beyond 10 days that trough leaves and we will have to watch the Caribbean and Gulf from Sept,15-30th. Katia will become a major hurricane and she still could threaten the east coast although all models turn her away. Fotunately, she is not our problem. Another disturbance out in the Atlantic is becoming better organized and Maria is likely to be named soon.
Rainfall from Lee was generally between 10-13" but it was spread out over 3-4 days. The flooding came from storm tides that reached 4-5 feet above normal...another sign that there is less coast left to block/knock down the waves of tropical systems. After August being our driest ever (1.16"), we may challenge the wettest September (18.98" 1998) as MSY is now at 11.05" ranking # 8 wettest so far. Enjoy the cool !
5 comments:
the cool weather was a welcome surprise this morning. i couldnt believe the temperture in the lower right hand corner on the weather channel this morning. this weather is so like mid to late october weather. even though this weekend kicked rocks this morning was a blessing in disguise. Bob thank you for being an awesome weatherman :-)
Hey Bob thanks for the update... was curious about what you said about models backing off of another Southern Gulf Storm this weekend, BUT the last few NAM model runs have shown a pretty decent organized Tropical Storm/Hurricane in Bay of Campeche by this weekend... thoughts? thanx, Bob
Wouldnt worry about model runs, if you have trusted model runs this year, then you have evacuated about 12 times already.
Like Bob says, untill something forms dont worry about it.
I wouldn't dare make an evacuation decision off of a model run lol - was just curious b/c Bob said the models backed off from developing anything in the Gulf... and then BAM I seen the NAM! lol
AlbanySnowMaker...The NAM? That model has been replaced by the much higher resolution GFS. The European does bring a system up to the central Gulf later this week, but all the other models, including VIPIR sit it down in the Bay of Campeche before drifting it westward into Mexico. Until it forms,if it forms, I'm not going to get nervous. Plenty of time to watch it.
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