Tuesday, October 18, 2011

It's More Than Water Temps.

Several weeks ago I said on this blog that the Fat Lady was singing the end to our Hurricane Season. The reason for my saying that with confidence was I felt the westerlies had returned creating too much wind shear for any tropical system to come our way. That was confirmed yesterday as a weak sfc. low formed off the Yucatan over the still very warm waters of the southern Gulf. If it were still August or September, this system probably would have developed. It had little chance now since the shear also brought down dry air over most of the Gulf. I still see TWC and others showing the "warm water temperatures" over the tropics. My opinion...shear is king when it comes to something developing or not. Water temps are a secondary player. With more cold fronts coming, most of the Gulf is dead for tropical development.

In the short term, you'll need a sweater, a jacket or even maybe a coat Wednesday morning as strong north winds will make the 45-50 degree temps seem even colder. Look for even colder night time temps. on Thursday & Friday mornings. If you missed out on the brief showers today, I see no rain in the forecast until late next Wednesday when another strong cold front will approach.

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