SW Upper Flow Creates Model Woes...

It seems everyone is married to computer models and what they say. That is OK when you have a progressive pattern that allows fronts to keep on moving. Lately, we've seen a western trough develop resulting in a SW Upper flow over us that the computer models don't handle very well. Embedded in that flow are minor disturbances that the models don't see very well. Since weather is about timing and location, if a model is off only 100 miles and 6-8 hours, you can have a totally different forecast. Tonight's model run keeps most of the rain to our north and west on Friday with more numerous showers developing around noon on Saturday. A front won't get close until Sunday so the next 2 days will be governed by these minor upper disturbances moving thru. Until the upper pattern changes, not likely for another week, we'll be dealing with unsettled weather and tricky forecasts. Hopefully things will change before the big parades arrive in 2 weeks. Right now 10-14 days out looks much colder. Stay tuned!