Like coaches do after every game, they review video to see what they can change to improve for the next game. So too after every tropical storm or hurricane, I'm always looking for lessons learned. Tropical Storm Karen reaffirmed what previous storms demonstrated...1) that computer models do not do very well with WEAKER tropical systems, 2) That once October arrives, SHEAR is usually KING, 3) Network newscasts usually overhypes the dangers 4) Most local TV weathercasters are afraid to fail so they just become weather reporters for the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service offices repeating graphics & data spooned fed to them. I realize conflicting information from different media stations can delay response form the public, however, I'd rather be the only one right than being wrong with everyone else. If you go back from her start, NONE of the models (including VIPIR) forecasted her path & intensity correctly. VIPIR from the start kept Karen turning well east of the mouth of the river and heading to Florida. Karen ended up going much father to the west. We really have a problem forecasting intensity. Karen went right over the warmest, deepest oceanic heat content of the Gulf of Mexico and didn't strengthen telling me it's more than warm water temperatures driving intensity. Yep, I may now be 66 but I'm never too old to quit learning about tropical systems. Stay tuned!
In the short term, the cooler air has arrived and the Fall feeling is back. It is comforting to know Hurricane Season 2013 gave us only one threat, and that threat turned out to be a dud. Let's start to enjoy October !
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