Danny in Gulf? Nah...

Since it appears the deep dust layer coming off of Africa, combined with the shearing winds of a strong El Nino, should result in near zero long tracked storms across the Caribbean this summer.  More likely we’ll see closer in along old frontal boundaries that sag off the east coast ong dip into the northern Gulf.    One such boundary is over the NE Gulf tonight and satellite & radar loops are showing a weak area of low pressure NW of Tampa.  Neither our VIPIR model nor the RPM & GFS models show much development during the next 1-2 days.   Still it’s the area we will watch since it’s so close to home.   For the time being, an upper high will block any motion towards us keeping us very hot & mostly dry.   That pattern should break down by later in the week making us less hot with more cooling showers.