Tropical Threat...but where?

I’m just back from a trip to NYC where several Channels now have 10 day FORECASTS!   Yep, no mention of the higher uncertainty as the forecasts goes out in time, which brings me to the point of some models bringing a strong hurricane into the Eastern Gulf next week.  How many times do I have to go over the uncertainty of the models?   We yet to even have a closed off center for initialization so why would anyone believe guesses out into next week?   Give me a chance to review all elements and then I’ll post a longer blog tonight.   FYI…a cold front came thru Sunday night giving NYC an early Fall preview.  All I can say is bring on October.  The air felt great!   Stay tuned!