Tropics are Primed to Explode

Just walking back from church and I could feel the moisture in our air.   It’s that same kind of “loaded” atmosphere that stretches from Texas across all of the Gulf waiting for some kind of disturbance to come along.  Today’s visible loop now shows a weak circulation just south of Key West moving westward into the Gulf.  All of the storms are not co-located with the center, being blown off to the ESE by wind shear created by upper lows that are numerous all around it.  I think it’s these upper lows that are causing a hostile environment for formation, but it’s only a matter of time before something happens.  It appears the system east of the Carolinas will become Tropical Storm Hermine later today.  It’s a TD now and will likely impact the Carolinas on Tuesday.  99-L  will likely become Tropical Storm Ian on Monday and , if you believe the Euro & Canadian models, Hurricane Ian on Tuesday.  The models take him into NW Florida near Pensacola, but not until Thursday or Friday.  That is very slow movement and I caution anyone from buying into that solution since the models have been so wrong so far.   IF we are to be threatened, we will have plenty of time to react as the forward motion should continue to be under 10 mph.  I’ll have another update this evening but my guess is that not much will happen with 99-L until later on Monday & Tuesday.  Following all of this will be Hurricane Julia coming off of Africa (not there yet) as the Tropics explode for the Labor Day weekend.  It’s that time of the year that we expect activity.  Let’s keep up with the weather in case we need to take action.  Stay tuned!